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A-League Betting: Back Brisbane Roar to beat Wellington Phoenix by a one-goal margin

Brisbane Roar

Recommended bet: Brisbane Roar to win by a one goal margin @ 11/4 (3.75) with bet365

Brisbane Roar and Wellington Phoenix come into Saturday’s game in contrasting form, with Roar unbeaten in seven matches in all competitions (ahead of their midweek AFC Champions League group game at home to Thailand’s Muang Thong United), while the Phoenix have collected just a solitary point from a possible 15 in the league.

As things stand, Roar still retain hopes of a top two finish in the regular season and direct qualification for the Finals Series semi-finals, although realistically they look destined for the Elimination Finals.

Roar claimed a creditable point with a 2-2 draw at Perth Glory last time out, a result that kept both clubs on track for the play-offs.  Their opening goal came from Jamie Maclaren, taking his league tally for the season to 11.

The Phoenix looked to be well in the running for a place in the Elimination Finals themselves until their recent loss of form, but they are currently down in 8th spot and with a five-point gap to make up on Western Sydney Wanderers.  They will almost certainly have to win four of their remaining seven fixtures if they are to secure that final play-off place.

Their recent poor run of form started with a 1-0 defeat at home to Roar last month and continued with last week’s 5-1 thrashing at home to Melbourne City, although the Phoenix could have had an early advantage had Kosta Barbarouses not smashed a penalty against the bar.

Although Brisbane has lost just four league games all season, along with Western Sydney Wanderers, Roar have been the draw specialists in the A-League this term, with nine of their 20 games ending all square.  They’ve lost just once at the Suncorp Stadium, but drawn four of nine in total.

That home form looks pretty solid when put up against the Wellington’s away record though, with the Phoenix having taken just five points from a possible 27 on their travels.

Current form and home advantage both point to a Brisbane victory, although it’s worth noting that they’ve only won once at home by more than a one-goal margin since last March and that’s where the value could lie.