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A-League Betting: Back Melbourne City to beat Adelaide United with 3 or 4 Total Goals

Adelaide United

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Melbourne City play host to Adelaide United at AAMI Park on Friday in a game in which City will be desperate to claim maximum points in order to maintain their hold on a top-four finish.

After consecutive defeats away to Western Sydney Wanderers and Sydney FC, City have slipped to fourth in the table.  With in-form Western Sydney Wanderers now being just two points behind them, City’s home advantage in the Elimination Finals is still in doubt.

As for Adelaide, it’s been a desperately poor campaign for the defending champions but, after propping up the table for most of the season, they’ve rediscovered some form with a five-match unbeaten run in all competitions, including four A-League games.

That form could have been even more impressive had it not been for a highly dubious penalty awarded against them at the end of the first-half in the 1-1 draw at home to Perth Glory last week.

It’s all far too late in terms of play-off qualification for the Reds, but at least they have continued to show commitment and battle for points, rather than simply throwing in the towel.

Adelaide still have a remote chance of further progress in the AFC Champions League and have a crucial group game in South Korea on Tuesday against Jeju United.  It’s possible that the focus of Guillermo Amor’s men could be more on that competition going into this game.

The two previous meetings between these teams this season both ended in 2-1 victories for the home side, with City prevailing at AAMI Park back in October, before the Reds gained revenge at Coopers Stadium in January.

Despite finding scoring goals relatively easy, City has struggled defensively this season.  They average 1.92 goals per game (GPG) at home this term, but also concede at a rate of 1.50 GPG.  Adelaide’s problems stem from an inability to score goals, with them only averaging 0.75 GPG on their travels, whilst conceding at a rate of 1.67.

Melbourne City have the greater incentive here and with Adelaide possibly having their attention elsewhere, it’s difficult to see past a home win with a few goals.