Betting News For 2012 Oscars

Published: 12:24 17/01/2012

The Golden Globes are awarded by Hollywood’s foreign journalists.  The journalists are not Academy members and they don’t vote on the Oscars.  The Academy Awards Nominations Polls closed on Friday 13 January so selection of nominees for the Oscars will not have been affected by the results of the Golden Globes awards ceremony held over that weekend.  However, given these caveats, the voting pattern of Academy members may nonetheless be influenced by the Golden Globes winners.

Certainly, a couple of films seem to have slipped down in the rankings for the Oscars with a poor showing at the Golden Globes.  The Help had five nominations for Golden Globes, second only to The Artist’s six, but only one winner – Octavia Spencer as Best Supporting Actress in a drama.  Moneyball also failed to perform with zero awards despite 4 nominations. The Golden Globes differs from the Oscars in that it distinguishes between films that focus on drama and those that centre around comedy/musicals.  This distinction may give a slightly misleading appearance that the Oscars will be a two horse race between The Descendants starring George Clooney and The Artist starring Jean Dujardin. 

 The Descendants won for best drama film and best drama actor whilst The Artist won for best comedy/musical film and best comedy/musical actor. This strong showing from both films has changed the betting odds offered by bookmakers who place George Clooney at a remarkable best price of 4/7 (from bookmaker Paddy Power) to win the Best Actor Oscar,  and Jean Dujardin at 15/8 (Boyle Sports).   In turn, subsequent to the Golden Globes Brad Pitt has slipped down to 12/1 for his performance in Moneyball (offered by Paddy Power) whilst Leonardo deCaprio ‘s chances for his performance in J Edgar similarly lowered to 6/1 (also from Paddy Power).In terms of Best Picture, The Artist continues to lead the betting, with Ladbrokes and Bet365 offering odds of 4/11 for a win.  The Descendants is also a strong contender with odds of 4/1 from Bet365.  Martin Scorsese’s film Hugo is offered at odds of 10/1 from Ladbrokes with Steven Spielberg’s Warhorse at 10/1 from Paddy Power.  Interestingly, in the past 45 years only 3 winners of the Golden Globes musical/comedy category have gone on to win the Best Picture award at the Oscars.  Could this be the year that The Artist, already exceptional as a silent screen film, bucks the trend?

The competition for Best Director remains fierce, as always.  The old guard of Martin Scorsese and Steven Spielberg have delivered terrific films this year.  Martin Scorsese is reckoned to have a good chance of a win with bookmaker William Hill amongst those offering tempting odds of 9/4.  He also won the Golden Globe award which may bolster his chances.  Steven Spielberg is at longer odds of 8/1 with Bet 365 for Warhorse.  However, Michel Hazanavicius who directed The Artist has a massive chance also with top odds of 8/11 from bookmaker Bet365, with the director of The Descendants Alexander Payne, at odds of 11/2 from the same bookmaker. 

For the category of Best Actress, Meryl Streep remains highly fancied to win the Oscar for her performance in The Iron Lady. She won the Golden Globe for best actress in a drama category and bookmaker Ladbrokes reckon that she is 8/15 in the betting odds.  Star of My Week with Marilyn, Michelle Williams also won a Golden Globe, for best actress in a musical/drama, and bookmaker Paddy Power puts her second in the ranking at odds of 5/2 for a win at the Oscars.  Viola Davis is offered at odds of 3/1 from Ladbrokes for her role in The Help, with longer odds of 14/1 for Glenn Close and 20/1 for both Tilda Swinton  and Rooney Mara (from PaddyPower) 

The 84th Academy Awards ceremony will take place on Sunday 26 February, when you will be able to judge for yourselves how the Golden Globe awards have affected the voting of Academy members.  Ascerbic comedian Ricky Gervais, presenter of this year’s Golden Globes, reckons that the event was “just like the Oscars...without all that esteem”.  The stars rated the event higher and turned out in force, providing him with the butt of many a waspish joke.   The stakes will be enormous next month though and there will be doubtless be smiles and tears aplenty.  That’s showbiz, ain’t it...

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