Author: Will Smith
Published: 13:09 23/01/2013
At the time of writing, Ayr’s Wednesday meeting and the first chance to get jump racing back on after the snow, is in the balance. Fingers crossed it gets the final all clear, but it’s over to Ireland for the prestigious Thyestes Chase at Gowran Park tomorrow that I go for my next bet.
While many localities in Ireland have their own National, just as there are regional versions in England, the Thyestes is akin to the Kilkenny National. And it is the Cork National run in November of last year that is the key piece of form.
Outlaw Pete was in the process of running away with that contest, having been held up to make stealthy progress when about to clear away before the final fence, where he suddenly jinked out to the right of the wing of the fence. The lucky winner was the steeply progressive Dessie Hughes trained chaser Raz De Maree, and Outlaw Pete was running off a mark of 111. He races off 119 tomorrow and with the help of regular pilot Josh Halley’s valuable 7lb claim, he is in effect just 1lb higher.
That in itself would provide strong enough claims, but it is what he has done since in two Cross-Country chases at Cheltenham that really illustrates his outstanding claims of winning the 2013 Thyestes. A very respectable third to Uncle Junior two weeks after the Cork National, and a facile seven length win in a Cross-Country handicap on soft ground in December off effectively a mark of 139, enhance the notion that he is extremely well treated on his return to a conventional track. He has run well in a hunter chase at Gowran Park before, and it is not dissimilar to Cork.
It is dangerous to assume that the form of such races is transferable, but Outlaw Pete has all the signs of a chaser sharply on the upgrade, and while there was a worry that he wouldn’t get in the race as he needed a few to come out at the declaration stage. That fear has been allayed, and he sits nicely at the foot of the weights.
Fancy prices have quickly been hoovered up, but at 7/1 generally he is still overpriced to compensate for the Cork National blip.
Outlaw Pete – 7/1 Paddy Power (sign up and bet £10 to get £20 free bet)