Author: Will Smith
Published: 08:33 08/07/2013
Having hit the crossbar with both selections in the Old Newton Cup, where Tepmokea went oh so close to bagging a nice 25/1 winner, it is with confidence that this weekend’s big betting heat is approached.
There are three horses in the market that have the scope to contract drastically from their current odds. Rye House and Lahaag would have definite chances if the ground was going to be on the soft side, but given the forecast that is nigh on impossible.
The other, Stencive, is currently available at 8/1, and has all the hallmarks of a widescale gamble in the week leading up to the race.
Now, it is no good finding a horse that is going to be backed if it isn’t going to win or run well. In the case of Stencive, he has outstanding claims.
Trained by William Haggas, who saddled Green Destiny (a strikingly similar sort) to win in 2011, the son of Dansili has the perfect mix of staying power and turn of foot needed to win the John Smith’s Cup over the specialist distance of 1m 2f 88yds.
We know he stays well as he has won over 1m 4f, and run some crackers in defeat over that distance. Most notably in the Duke of Edinburgh Handicap at Royal Ascot when held up from a wide draw, he was only horse to make any progress from the rear.
The burst of pace he showed to sweep wide into the home straight just as the tempo was lifting showed he is very well handicapped and possesses the necessary speed for the drop in trip.
That he can race off the same mark as that day, due to Saturday’s race being an early closing one is very handy, as he has since been raised 4lbs (which actually would have been lenient anyway.)
There is every chance that when the five-day declarations are made on Monday morning 8/1 will be a distant memory.
Stencive – 8/1 (bet365, BetVictor, Boylesports)