Author: Paul Reece
Published: 15:06 02/11/2014
The Grade 3 Hennessy Gold Cup takes place on 29th November at Newbury and this year’s race is expected to feature a strong Irish contingent in the 3m 2½f handicap and eight of the horses who have won the Hennessy Gold Cup have also won the Cheltenham Gold Cup, including 2013 winner Bobs Worth.
It is always difficult trying to find a winner but Freebets have done all that we can to help you, searching through the record books to find all the winning trends to ensure you have the best chance of making a profit from the bookies.
5. Stick with six and seven-year-olds
Over the last 15-years of the Hennessy Gold Cup, 12 of the 15 winners have been six or seven-years-old, including the the previous two winners Triolo D’Alene and Bobs Worth. The last nine-year-old to win at Newbury was Denman in 2009 and before him the last nine-year-old winner was Teeton Mill in 1998. The last time a 10-year-old won, meanwhile, was Diamond Edge all the way back in 1981. Seven-years-old have dominated the race, winning eight of the last 15 races, giving the age group a win percentage of 53%.
4. Look for 11 Stone or more
Eight of the last 11 winners of the prestigious 21-fence steeplechase have all weighed over 11 stone, including the last two winners Triolo D’Alene and Bobs Worth. 2011 and 2010 winners Carruthers and Diamond Harry, however, were both carrying under 11 stone but before the pair the previous five winners between 2005 and 2009 were all over 11. The heaviest winner in recent years was Denman in 2009, who weighed 11st 12lbs and the lightest was 2010 winners Diamond Harry who weighed just 10 stone.
3. 146 or Higher
Another winning trend in recent years comes from the official rating. Each of the last nine winners entered the race with a rating of 145 or higher, with the last horse to win with a rating below 145 being Celestial Gold in 2004. And six of the last 11 winners, meanwhile, were competing in their first race of the season and eight of the previous 11 winners have won either one or no handicap chase runs prior to competing in the Hennessy Gold Cup. Eight of the last 11 winners, however, arrived at Newbury with at least three chase wins before triumphing in this race.
2. Geraghty a good bet?
Barry Geraghty has been the winning jockey in each of the last two seasons, guiding Triolo D’Alene and Bobs Worth to victory and if the 35-year-old features this November he will be aiming to join Willie Robinson as the only three-time winning jockey of the Hennessy Gold Cup. Robinson won the race three times between 1961 and 1968 while 35-year-old Geraghty was the first back-to-back winner since Paul Nicholls completed a double in 1986-87.
1. Henderson hat-trick?
Trainer Nicky Henderson has a superb record in the race, winning three-times at Newbury, and he will go into this year’s event aiming for a hat-trick of consecutive victories. The three-time British Jump Racing Champion Trainer is four wins behind all-time Hennessy Gold Cup winning trainer Fulke Walwyn, who won an impressive seven times between 1957 and 1981. Henderson’s 2013 winner, Triolo D’Alene is expected to feature again and is bidding to become the first horse since in 1965 to win back-to-back Hennessy Gold Cup races. While Hadrians Approach is another Henderson trained gelding who is expected to feature and was fancied in last year’s race, before unseating Nico de Boinville. Trainer Paul Nicholls, meanwhile, also has three previous wins as a trainer, his last with Denman in 2009, and a further two wins as a jockey in the 1980’s.