ATP World Tour Finals Betting Preview

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Author: Graham Tower

Tags: Tennis

Published: 10:37 03/11/2014

The ATP Tour World Finals returns to London to make its 6th appearance at the O2 arena, having formerly been hosted in Shanghai, China.

A Renewed Roger Federer will be looking to win the title, and with it regain the end of year world number 1 ranking, something that has eluded him since 2009.  Standing in his way though, are some tough opponents who will all fancy their chances of claiming the title. Whether you’re backing or laying on a betting exchange, you’ll want the important stats on the finalists.

ATP STATS FOR 2013 AND 2014 SEASONS

Novak Djokovic

  • Roger Federer: Novak Leads 4-3, but Roger won their most recent meeting on hard court 6-4, 6-4           
  • Andy Murray: Novak Leads 4-1 with Andy’s only win coming at Wimbledon, just down the London event
  • Stan Wawrinka: Novak leads 3-1 after Stan’s win at the Aussie Open. 17-3 all-time though
  • Kei Nishikori: Nishikori leads 1-0 after that famous US Open Semi Final
  • Tomas Berdych: Novak leads 4-1 with the Czech’s only win coming on Clay
  • Milos Raonic: Novak leads 2-0, though two tight encounters on clay which doesn’t suit the Canadian
  • Marin Cilic: Novak leads 3-0

Roger Federer

  • Andy Murray: Roger Leads 2-1, winning both times this year
  • Stan Wawrinka: Roger leads 2-1, at least one tie break in last 5 matches
  • Kei Nishikori: Nishikori leads 2-1 with Roger’s only win coming on grass
  • Tomas Berdych: Split 1-1 with both matches in Dubai, Roger winning in 2014
  • Milos Raonic: Federer leads 3-0, but has an overall 6-0 record against Raonic
  • Marin Cilic: Split 1-1 with Cilic wnning at the US Open

Andy Murray

  • Stan Wawrinka: Wawrinka leads 2-0 without dropping a set
  • Kei Nishikori: Murray leads 1-0 but Nishikori retired hurt in that match
  • Tomas Berdych: Berdych leads 2-0
  • Milos Raonic: Raonic leads 1-0
  • Marin Cilic: Murray leads 3-1

Stan Wawrinka

  • Kei Nishikori: Nishikori leads 1-0 after an epic 5 set win at the US open in 2014
  • Tomas Berdych: Wawrinka leads 4-1
  • Milos Raonic: Wawrinka leads 2-0, tiebreaks in every match
  • Marin Cilic: Wawrinka leads 2-0, all dominant victories

Kei Nishikori

  • Tomas Berdych: No meetings since 2012 where Nishikori leads 3-1
  • Milos Raonic: Nishikori leads 3-1, tiebreaks in every match
  • Marin Cilic: Nishkori leads 3-1, but Cilic claimed the big scalp in the US Open Final

 

Tomas Berdych

  • Milos Raonic: Split 1-1, both on hard
  • Marin Cilic: Cilic leads 3-1

Milos Raonic

  • Marin Cilic: Raonic leads 1-0, on hard back in 2013 Indian Wells

 

How the ATP Finals tournament will pan out:

It does look to be a battle between Novak Djokovic and Roger Federer, and most pundits could argue that this would be a deserved decider with the winner not only claiming the title, but the world number 1 ranking at end of year.  Roger seems renewed as he closes in on the world number 1 ranking.  Could this be a fitting way for the champion to end his career on Top?   Novak is Novak, and will fight to the end and be tough to beat.

Home Favourite Andy Murray will be hoping to push his title claims. There is no denying he has the talent, but his temperament gets the better of him at times.  If he holds his nerve like he did at Wimbledon in 2013, he may well win here in London

Outside of those 3, Kei Nishikori seems to be the standout pick with favourable head to heads over all other contenders, except Andy Murray courtesy only of a retirement.  Nishikori seems to really be coming into his own after a series of handy performances in his younger years.  The extra couple of years has done wonders for his game and his confidence and is now a genuine title chance in any tournament he plays

Wawrinka is probably next best, especially if he can get his serve going and that famous back hand of his is motoring.     His form of late seems to have been on his best and it appears his heroics in January are taking its toll later in the year.

Cilic cannot be discounted. He skipped the Paris tournament so may be fresh for his tilt at the title.  He has the serve and the ground strokes to cause problems.

As for Tomas Berdych and Milos Raonic, I don’t believe they have the capability to win this tournament and both represent genuine LAY opportunities

Best Bet:              LAY Tomas Berdych

When Laying your bets through a Betting Exchange you need to be sure you are finding the best deal for yourself.  The first thing to look at is the commission rates charged by the Betting Exchange.  On Tennis markets, Betfair Charge 5%, whereas competitor WBX also offer a loyalty points discount program that can reduce the commission to as low as 1.2%. Betfair actually applies a premium charge of up to 60% of your profits if you are a winning client. If you do happen to have a commission discount rate built up at Betfair or Ladbrokes/Betdaq then email WBX.com’s member services with the proof of the rate and they will match it.