Live Tennis Betting Strategies for Betting Exchanges

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Author: Graham Tower

Tags: Tennis

Published: 12:06 03/12/2014

Tennis betting has come a long way over the last decade. With the addition of betting exchanges, we now have more opportunities to bet at higher odds, and locking in profits during live play has never been better.

It’s common for tennis punters to watch how the first few matches unfold before placing their wagers. Besides reviewing previous head to head data and other stats, a key factor is how the players are performing on match day. Unlike football where the entire team influences the result, tennis is an individual sport where only two players decide the outcome. Watching the first few games should be enough for you to get a general idea of what is going to unfold.

Below we discuss some tennis betting strategies for betting exchanges.

Backing the underdog to win set just before he breaks  

Break points are an excellent opportunity to catch the odds while it still has some value. If the underdog is a good server, and the favorite doesn’t fire many aces, you can catch good odds on set winner at 15-40 or even better at 0-40. Set winner markets still hasn’t reflected the true value as the favorite is usually considered to somehow manage a turnover. He may be considered the favorite, but the truth is he is more likely one weak serve away from losing a set. Keep in mind that timing is everything with this strategy.

Back the favourite to win after losing first set  

Let’s assume that the underdog has landed the first set after that break. Second set begins and the favorite has woken up. He has regained his focus and is more determined with his shots. He puts the pressure on the underdog, but still doesn’t make a break. At this point it is wise to invest part of the previous set profit into a turnaround, but not too much as the underdog has already demonstrated he is capable of taking the match.

Grand Slam first rounds, motivational aspect  

Generally speaking, following young and upcoming or in-form players can prove to be a real moneymaker. For example in Grand Slams these players are never favorites, but often try their best to steal points from the big boys. Top players rarely put their best performance in first rounds. Choose wisely, but have some courage to back over on total games. In the first rounds there is rarely something else worth playing.

Laying the server in women’s tennis

Although there are exceptions, it is well known that women have less physical power than men. Or to put it better, they are better at returning a serve. Women’s tennis can often be more interesting to watch from a betting perspective because the potential for broken service games is higher and cause odds during live betting to have larger swings. Men’s tennis observes service

breaks in roughly 1 in 4 games, the number increase to just 1 in 3 in women’s tennis. 

During a match you may notice a trend that players are dropping their serve, in these instances a low serve rate can make it lucrative to lay a serving player in crucial points in the match when they are down 0-30, or 15-30. After laying them, in the event that they do go on to lose the game, back them at higher odds and lock in a profit.

Backing injured players

From time to time every player picks up some sort of an injury. If it’s not a serious one, they stay in a tournament but the odds on his next match are affected. How serious it is can only be seen when the next match starts. Backing that type of player can also prove profitable over the long run, if the injury is a serious one, they may surrender the match before the stage where the bet will stand. If it isn’t, the price has some value as punters overreact to the injury news.

Live tennis betting strategies for betting exchanges where you can bet at higher odds than many bookmakers and lock in a profit

On betting exchanges, minor injuries occurring in a match spotted early can give you enough on odds to lock in a profit by backing and laying the “healthy” opponent. It can produce quick and low risk profits as players often do not need to play a single point (due to medical timeout) before you enter and exit the market. There is no solid proof that an injured player will not continue to play at exactly the same level before medical timeout, yet there is a chance he won’t and the market reacts to it. Due to high odds on betting exchanges it is possible to lock in a nice profit. The only obstacle is that betting exchanges sometimes react much faster than bookies, however with betting exchanges you know your bet will stand, as bookies may cite their odds as being incorrect in these instances and cancel your bet, something that betting exchanges do not do. 

Still, betting exchanges, like World Bet Exchange (WBX), offer more value when betting on live tennis. Most established bookies offer odds of 1.85-1.85 on a stalemate match, hedging themselves with 8% on the odds they offer, while at www.wbx.com you can find odds at nearly 100% of return. If we include 3% commission on winnings that they charge, punters still save 2-3 times more than when they bet at bookies. WBX has no premium charges, instead they reward your winnings through a loyalty discount, so your commission rate can drop down by as much as 60% to just 1.2%.

WBX  offers live betting on every tennis match year round, with a £25/€25/$35 free bet for new members.