2015 St Leger Meeting Betting Guide - Doncaster Thursday
1.55 British Stallion Studs “ Carrie Red “ EBF Fillies’ Stakes ( Nursery Handicap ) 6f 110y
A wide-open 20-runner nursery to start Doncaster’s marathon eight-race card. Top weight Nemoralia was no match for Aidan O’Brien’s highly regarded Ballydoyle at Newmarket and after winning a moderate Kempton maiden looks poor value at around the 2-1 mark with 9st 7lb to carry. Sharaakah, Unlit, Fashionable Spirit and Baby Ballerina all have solid nursery form and look sure to run their race but the handicapper may have underestimated the Thirsk victory of the William Haggas-trained ALPINE DREAM who could be thrown in off a lowly mark of just 72.
Recommendation – 1 Point each-way Alpine Dream 7-1 Betway
2.30 Japan Racing Association Sceptre Stakes ( Group 3 ) 7f
An open renewal of this Group 3 race for fillies and mares in which the Barry Hills-trained Fadhayyil probably sets the standard following her fifth place in the Qipco 1000 Guineas, close second to Dutch Connection in Royal Ascot’s Jersey Stakes and most recently a half length victory over Speculative Bid in a Listed race at York’s Ebor meeting. French challengers Penmaen and Pearly Steph are respected along with Irish raider Majestic Queen and recent York scorer Lucky Kristale but the vote goes to the lightly-raced Godolphin runner MISTRUSTING who is open to plenty more improvement and despite being worse off at the weights with York victim Dusky Queen can confirm the form once again.
Recommendation – 1 Point each-way Mistrusting 6-1 Betfred ( ¼ odds 126.96.36.199. )
3.05 DFS Park Hill Stakes ( Group 2 ) 1m 6f 132y
The Godolphin runner Hidden Gold has posted a couple of solid recent efforts in finishing second to St Leger hope Simply Verse at Goodwood before finishing third in the Lonsdale Cup at York but the Shamardal filly is finding it hard to get her head in front this season and once again may have to settle for minor honours. John Gosden’s Gretchen ran out a game winner at Newmarket last time but the lightly-raced Koora looks best of the three-year-olds in the race for a trainer who excels with this type of horse but the William Haggas-trained ARABIAN COMET is the suggestion with conditions to suit. The daughter of Dubawi could never get competitive in York’s Ebor last time but looked unlucky at Goodwood prior to that run and should go close if running up to her best.
Recommendation – 1 Point each-way Arabian Comet 10-1 Coral ( money back if beaten a head or less )
3.40 Weatherbys Hamilton £300,000 2-Y-O Stakes 6f 110y
22 Runners for this valuable sales race and the ones to concentrate on are Majdool, Qeyaadah, Appleton, Holy Grail and Humphrey Bogart. The first named should appreciate dropping back in trip while the other Hamdan Al Maktoum runner Qeyaadah looked to have the worst of the draw when finishing a creditable fourth at York last time. Humphrey Bogart looks best of the two Hannon runners based on his Acomb fourth but the mob-handed stable of Richard Fahey ( 6 runners ) can take this again following Bond’s Girl’s victory 12 months ago. Appleton created a good impression when winning his maiden at Pontefract on his only start to date and is feared but stablemate HOLY GRAIL is just preferred with top Irish jockey Pat Smullen in the saddle.
Recommendation – 1 Point each-way Holy Grail 14-1 Skybet ( 4 places )
4.15 Crownhotelbawtry.com Thoroughbred Breeders’ Association Fillies’ Handicap 1m 2f 60y
Cornish Path won well over the course and distance back in July and should go well along with Haalan and Abbey Angel but the John Gosden-trained CALIFORNIA may turn out to be better class than these in time and could have been let in lightly off a mark of 81 on her handicap debut.
Recommendation – 1 Point Win California 7-4 Ladbrokes
4.50 Margaret and Derrick’s 50 Golden Years Handicap 1m 2f 60y
Grandeur should appreciate dropping back into handicap company but faces a stiff task off 9st 12lb while Elkaayed, Educate and Blue Waltz can all be fancied on their best form but the David Simcock-trained HALATION has been in tremendous form all season and looks guaranteed to run his race once again despite running off a career-high mark of 98.
Recommendation – 1 Point each-way Halation 9-2 Ladbrokes ( ¼ odds 1.2.3. )
5.25 DFS British Stallion Studs EBF Maiden Stakes 1m
No great appeal from a betting perspective as 5 of the 8 runners have yet to see a racecourse. Unless one of the newcomers prove to be above average the experienced Very Talented should take this following his fine second in a good York maiden last time.
Recommendation – No Bet
6.00 This Is The Ladbrokes Life Handicap 6f
A 21-runner sprint handicap to end the card makes life difficult for punters but the one to beat looks to be the Richard Fahey-trained JAN VAN HOOF. The four-year-old will be having just his eighth career start and looks on an attractive mark of just 80. A head winner when in receipt of 7lb from Malijaa at Newmarket back in July looks excellent form now as that horse has gone on to win two competitive handicaps and is now rated 102. Despite failing to settle the mount of Tony Hamilton was beaten a little over two lengths at headquarters last time and should take plenty of beating in the finale.
Recommendation – 1 Point each-way Jan Van Hoof 12-1 Ladbrokes