The last and event of the Gulf Swing is the Omega Dubai Desert Classic. The course itself measures 7301 yards and has been won by some of the heavy hitters on tour, including Woods, Quiros, Mcilroy and Stenson. They have prospered as the par 5 are mostly all reachable for players with length in their game. It’s also an advantage that three of the par 5s are on the last nine holes, and come Sunday afternoon this could be very advantageous for the bully boys. It must be stated though that the shorter hitters can also win, and Miguel Angel Jimenez won in 2010.
Unfortunately this years event has a rather poor quality field and the most notable two players are Sergio Garcia & Lee Westwood. Our E/W pick last week was Garcia and he was just pipped for the title and will be hoping to go one better. His record at this event has been moderate but he will still have his supporters. At a best price of 6/1 I will overlook him as I just don’t think that price is value, though it would be no surprise to see him win. Likewise with Westwood, his price is to short for me at 17/2 for a man who has not played for well over a month competitively.
My first pick this week is the Thai Thongchai Jaidee, who is in very good form and racked up a succession of top tens this year.He has also course form, and was in the top three in 2010. At 30/1, he should give us a run for our money. It may be worthwhile giving Henrik Stenson another chance to win this week as he has such a good past record. A past winner in 2007, and with a host of good finishes in this event, he could go close again if he can get the putter hot. His price is 14/1 and should have a decent e/w price.
I will be keeping my betting stakes to a lower level this week as I think they isn’t a lot of value in the book and the event has a bit of a trappy feel to it.
Thongchai Jaidee 30/1 E/W (5 places) Bet 365
Henrik Stenson 14/1 E/W (5 places) Bet 365