Euro 2024 qualifying play-offs: Everything you need to know

In just 85 days time, the eyes of the football world will be on Munich when Euro 2024 kicks off, as hosts and three-times European Champions Germany take on Scotland at Allianz Arena.

Right now, 21 teams have qualified for the 24-team tournament meaning, and you mathematicians may be ahead of me on this one, just three spots remain up for grabs.

These will be decided this week via the European qualifiers’ play-offs, so how do they work? Who’s involved? Who’s likely to qualify? All that and more will be answered right here.

Who has already qualified for Euro 2024?

Hosts Germany as well as the top-two finishers in all ten Euro qualifying groups have already rubber stamped their tickets to next summer’s European Championships.

The group stage draw was then made at Elbphilharmonie on 2 December, with these the results:

  • Group A: Germany, Scotland, Hungary & Switzerland.
  • Group B: Spain, Croatia, Italy & Albania.
  • Group C: Slovenia, Serbia, Denmark & England.
  • Group D: Netherlands, Austria, France & Play-off Path A winner.
  • Group E: Belgium, Slovakia, Romania & Play-off Path B winner.
  • Group F: Türkiye, Portugal, Czechia & Play-off Path C winner.

As you can see above, groups D, E & F all have a spot vacant, but these will be filled by three teams victorious in the play-offs over the next few days.

Who’s involved in the play-offs and how was this determined?

Play-off spots were allocated to teams based on their UEFA Nations League ranking for the most-recent edition of the competition in 2022.

It’s quite complicated but, in short, the 12 teams that performed best in the Nations League, who failed to qualify automatically, are give a second chance via these repêchage-style play-offs.

The play-off draw then took place on 23 November, with this the fixtures it produced:

  • Path A: Poland vs Estonia; Wales vs Finland.
  • Path B: Israel vs Iceland; Bosnia & Herzegovina vs Ukraine.
  • Path C: Georgia vs Luxembourg; Greece vs Kazakhstan.

How do the play-offs work and when are they taking place?

Each play-off path will feature two single-leg semi-finals and one single-leg final.

The six semi-finals will take place on Thursday 21 March, with the trio of finals scheduled for Tuesday 26 March.

The team with the higher UEFA Nations League ranking will host the semi-final, while the final hosts were determined at random during the draw.

The final hosts are. Path A: Wales/Finland. Path B: Bosnia/Ukraine. Path C: Georgia/Luxembourg.

The three final winners will qualify for the European Championships, entering group D, E & F respectively.

Who are we predicting to qualify?

In Path A, Poland are overwhelming favourites to beat Estonia in Warsaw, while most would expect Wales to overcome Finland simultaneously.

Thus, this sets up a mouthwatering final in Cardiff that is tough to call, given that Poland probably just edge it on talent, but Wales are formidable in front of their home crowd.

Path B is certainly the toughest to call, given that there isn’t a lot between any of the quartet involved.

In terms of the semi-finals, Israel are hampered by the fact that they’re unable to play matches on home soil, but will still fancy their chances of overcoming a not particularly strong Iceland side in Budapest.

At the same time, Bosnia have been beaten in the play-offs for each of the last three Euros, and we’re forecasting déjà vu, with Ukraine confident of leaving Zenica victorious.

This would set up a tasty final between Ukraine and Israel in Wrocław, in which we make Ukraine favourites.

Lastly, to Path C, where we’re backing both Georgia and Greece to make home advantage count in the semi-finals, crushing the dreams of Luxembourg and Kazakhstan.

This would set up a final in Tbilisi that’s honestly too close to call, given that Greece are, probably, the stronger side, but Georgia are very rarely beaten on home turf.

Sticking our neck on the line, we’re predicting that Wales, Ukraine and Greece will qualify via the play-offs.

Euro 2024 play-off semi-final aaca:


Wales to qualify

Wales vs Finland


Poland to win and both teams to score NO

Poland vs Estonia


Both teams to score

Bosnia & Herzegovina vs Ukraine


Both teams to score

Israel vs Iceland


Greece to win

Greece vs Kazakhstan


Georgia to win

Georgia vs Luxembourg


At 18/1, a £10 bet would return £190

Euro 2024 play-offs acca of the week

Ben Gray

Ben Gray

Arsenal fan – follow them over land and sea (and Leicester); sofa Celtic supporter; a bit of a football '"encyclopedia".