Despite failing to finish in two of Formula 1’s opening three races of the season, by the conclusion of the fourth contest Max Verstappen is now an odds-on favourite with some firms to win the 2022 World Drivers’ Championship but despite a 1-2 finish there, Red Bull still has some reliability issues that need to addressed.
A single race is a long time in Formula 1 and a second retirement of the year in Australia saw defending champion Verstappen drift out to odds of 9/4 (3.25) in the Drivers Championship race with just 25 points after three races. If that price drift does not sound alarming, just consider until the latest race in Imola he was sitting as low as sixth in the Drivers’ standings with Lewis Hamilton, Sergio Perez, Carlos Sainz, George Russell and Charles Leclerc all ahead of him.
Leclerc, courtesy of two wins, a second and three fastest laps – which award a single point each – now has 86 points in total but with Verstappen now breathing down his neck on 59 points.
From Bad to Ugly
There is more bad news to digest. Team advisor Helmut Marko has stated reliability issues are not the only problem the Milton Keynes based team is facing.
“There are two or maybe three different things at play,” he told Austrian broadcaster Servus TV. “Firstly, the reliability problems, which we hardly had last year. “But the deficit to Ferrari was also alarming in Melbourne,” he continued. “They just controlled the pace, if Max upped the pace, Leclerc could react easily.
“We were negatively surprised by the speed of Ferrari. They had almost no graining and we already had some after a few laps. Ferrari can find a good balance with their car more easily.”
Weighty Problems
Marko then pointed out an unexpected hindrance, weight. “We are clearly heavier than the Ferrari,” Marko said. “I think we have a weight handicap of about 10 kilograms. Converted to lap time, that equates to about three-tenths per lap.
“Lowering the weight is expensive,” he told the Red Bull-owned TV channel. “To start with, it’s a financial issue and secondly it is also related to reliability. So, it is a difficult split due to the budget cap.”
In short, he inferred the budget cap – first introduced in 2021 and set at $140 million for the 2022 season – means any money spent on dealing with a weight issue will mean less money will be available to spend on updates as the title fight intensifies.
A record 23-race season will give Red Bull and fellow chasers, Mercedes, plenty of opportunity to improve their cars and make up the deficit.
However, top-priced Even money, the bookmakers already consider Leclerc 50 percent likely to claim his first World Drivers Championship title.
After their dismal performance at Imola where LeClerc finished only 6th and Sainz spun off on the first lap, the bookies can’t split the top two teams with Ferrari are now 10/11 joint favourites with Red Bull to win the World Constructors’ Championship. The Italian team currently has 124 points putting them 11 points ahead of Red Bull in second place.
The next race is in two weeks time in Miami.
* F1 betting odds correct at the time of writing. All odds subject to changes.
