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The Australian Grand Prix was exciting (and profitable with all three of our tips prevailing) but, no matter how many red flags and safety car periods the stewards introduced, Max Verstappen was never likely to lose the contest.
As their prices demonstrate, F1 odds compilers know the season is effectively over with 20 races to go. Verstappen is a remarkable 1/2 to win 15 or more races during the year and Red Bull is an unbackable 1/25 to win the 2023 Constructors’ Championship.
But while they have concentrated on Red Bull’s performance – with markets on things such as ‘how many races will Max Verstappen win – they have left themselves open with markets on backmarker teams.
Williams Has the Engine to Tame Haas
One such proposition that looks like a big mistake is the season-long match on Williams versus Haas in the Constructors Championship. So far, with a seventh and a tenth, Haas has acquired 10 championship points. Williams, with a single tenth-place finish, has one. In the betting, it is 8/11 Haas, even-money Williams.
Haas has shown up well in qualifying so far but its race pace has been disappointing. Vitally, history shows Haas are masters of making a bright start to a season and then tailing off as the year progresses – as does the manufacturer that supplies its engines, Ferrari.
Williams’ driver, Alex Albon, has shown some real speed this year, and in a car powered by a Mercedes engine – and now run by a former Mercedes team kingpin – it has a lot of scope for improvement. The Aston Martin team has shown what results the engine can achieve with a good aero package. And its template is likely to be replicated by Williams as the season progresses.
Magnussen an Incredible Price to Outscore the Hulk
Talking of Haas. Bet365 and other firms have overreacted to Nico Hulkenberg’s bright start to the season. Originally odds-against, he is now 2/5 to outscore his teammate, Kevin Magnussen, by the end of the season.
Hulkenberg may have a six-point advantage at this early stage but he should not be so easily dismissed. 7/4 odds overrate his chances of claiming some strong finishing positions during the coming months and finally outpointing ‘The Hulk’.
* Betting odds correct at the time of publication. All odds are subject to changes.
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