In mid-summer 2021 the odds of Boris Johnson being replaced as leader of the country during 2022 were 4/1. This week you will do well to find 1/2 about the Prime Minister going sometime during the coming year.
Johnson has staggered from one crisis to another during the last six months and the latest ‘bring a bottle’ party revelation – and subsequent apology – has seen knives being sharpened by critics, rivals and members of his own party.
Labour leader Sir Keir Starmer was scathing about the latest Johnson revelations and looked his rival in the eye in the House of Commons before declaring: “The party’s over, Prime Minister,” before asking, “The only question is will the British public kick him out, will his party kick him out, or will he do the decent thing and resign?”
On the Betfair betting exchange today the odds of Boris Johnson resigning before the end of this month was available at just over 3/1 with him to steadfastly remain a 1/3 shot.
Boris Johnson Exit Date Betting Odds
- 2022 – 1/5 Betfred
- 2023 – 6/1 Betfred
- 2023 or later – 2/1 Unibet
- 2024 or later – 11/2 William Hill
* Boris Johnson odds quoted correct at time of publication (19th Jan), subject to changes.
Similarly Scottish Tory leader Douglas Ross called for Johnson to quit, saying his position “was no longer tenable” and “I don’t think he can continue as leader of the Conservatives”.
Even veteran backbencher Sir Roger Gale, MP for North Thanet, accused the leader of misleading Parliament and that politically he is “a dead man walking”.
Who is Next in Line?
Attention is already turning to his possible replacement. Rishi Sunak is the clear favourite in the next Conservative leader betting markets. Unibet and Coral are industry top-priced at 7/4 about the Chancellor of the Exchequer moving into number 10 Downing Street.
Foreign Secretary Liz Truss is 4/1 second favourite despite her recent Tweet declaring: “I stand behind the Prime Minister 100% as he takes our country forward”.
Jeremy Hunt has held a number of cabinet jobs – currently serving as Chair of the Health and Social Care Select Committee – he’s probably the value bet at 7/1.
Next British Prime Minister Betting Odds via bet365*
- 13/10 Rishi Sunak
- 11/2 Lizz Truss
- 7/1 Jeremy Hunt
- 15/2 Sir Keir Starmer
- 14/1 Penny Mordaunt
- 18/1 Tom Tugendhat
- 18/1 Michael Gove
- 20/1 Dominic Raab
- 20/1 Sajid Javid
- 25/1 Priti Patel
- 28/1 Nadhim Zahawi
- 33/1 Iain Duncan Smith
- 33/1 Steve Baker
- 40/1 Oliver Dowden
- 40/1 Brandon Lewis
- 50/1 Douglas Ross
- 50/1 James Cleverley
- 66/1 Graham Brady
- 80/1 Alok Sharma
- 80/1 Grant Shapps
Labour Have Taken the Lead and Have Been Slashed in Most Seats Market
But will Boris Johnson’s replacement – whenever he does call time on his time on his leadership role – take command of a sinking ship?
A poll conducted by YouGov for the Times before Johnson’s party apology at Prime Minister’s Questions, gave Labour at a 10-point lead over the conservatives.
Next Election Date Odds
The next election does appear some way away. 2024 or later is top-priced 4/7 favourite (Boylesports) for the next time the British public are asked to go to the polls. 2023 is 6/1 (top-price can be found at Betfred*).
Betting odds compilers believe the Tories can still turn things around and make the blues 4/6 (Coral) to win the most seats at that next election. But Keir Starmer’s Labour party was 2/1 entering December and now they are into odds of 11/8. What will happen next is anyone’s guess.