Freebets.com racing tipster Alan Kelly previews day two of the Ladbrokes St Leger meeting at Doncaster with a betting tip for every race.
1.40 EBF STALLIONS BREEDING WINNERS CARRIE RED FILLIES’ NURSERY STAKES
A competitive six and a half furlong nursery to start the day in a contest which should be treated with plenty of caution featuring 18 lightly-raced juveniles. The Richard Fahey-trained Home Cummings rightly heads the weights after finishing fourth in a similar race at Newmarket and should turn the tables on runner-up Persun on revised terms but may struggle to beat the third horse there Gregoria who didn’t enjoy the best of runs close home. Richard Hughes’ mount Vesnina ran well in a Salisbury Group 3 contest last time and is due plenty of respect as are Mary McPhee and Secret Spirit but a tentative vote goes to the lightly-weighted ESCRICK. The mount of David Probert has improved with each of her four runs and could have been let in lightly off a mark of 70.
ADVICE – 1 POINT E.W. ESCRICK – BEST MORNING PRICE
2.10 JAPAN RACING ASSOCIATION SCEPTRE STAKES (GROUP 3)
A cracking renewal of this 7f contest for fillies and mares with the field of 16 including several who have been running at a high level for most of the season. J Wonder, Al Thakhira, Amazing Maria, Kiyoshi and LUCKY KRISTALE started the season as potential 1000 Guineas winners but have failed to make it at Classic level. The first named ran up to her best to win Group 3 at Goodwood most recently but is not certain to confirm that form with Muteela, Indignant and Valonia while the William Haggas-trained Token Of Love is a big improver and should not be overlooked, but the two against the field are LUCKY KRISTALE and Bragging. The latter takes a big step up in class but could not have been more impressive when winning a York handicap last time and looked every inch a Group horse in the making. At a general price of 3-1 however Sir Michael Stoute’s filly is passed over in favour of George Margarson’s Lowther Stakes winner who can be backed at a massive 20-1 with a couple of bookmakers. Her trainer has made no secret of how highly he rates the daughter of Lucky Story who, for one reason or another, has not produced her best in two runs this season, but after a decent break and back to what is probably her ideal trip is taken to go close in an open contest.
ADVICE – 1 POINT E.W. LUCKY KRISTALE 20-1 BETFAIR SPORTSBOOK
2.40 DFS PARK HILL STAKES (GROUP 2)
Another tremendous heat for fillies and mares, this time run over an extended 1m 6f in which the William Haggas-trained Arabian Comet will attempt to make it third time lucky after two creditable efforts when runner-up at Goodwood and York. Joe Fanning’s mount should run her usual game race but may once again find one or two too good while probable market leader Seal Of Approval will need to improve upon her form this season if she is to add this Group 2 contest to her impressive Group 1 victory at Ascot last October. Moment In Time, Silk Sari, Venus De Milo and Criteria are all capable of going well but a chance is taken on the lightly-raced MELROSE ABBEY for trainer Ralph Beckett who does so well with fillies, and jockey Silvestre de Sousa. The daughter of Selkirk has had just the four runs and the step up in trip could bring about more improvement making her an attractive proposition at the 16-1 generally available.
ADVICE – 1 POINT E.W. MELROSE ABBEY 16-1 SKYBET
3.15 WEATHERBYS HAMILTON INSURANCE £300,000 2-Y-O STAKES
£300,000 Up for grabs in this valuable two-year-old sales race won 12 months ago by 100-1 chance Morning Post. The fancied Valley Of Fire has been declared a late non-runner but with a field of 21 juveniles remaining the defection of William Haggas’s charge hardly makes things much easier. Off 8st 6lb the place to start is probably with Brian Meehan’s Fox Trotter who got to within five lengths of 2000 Guineas favourite Ivawood at Goodwood, just a short head behind Gimcrack runner-up Jungle Cat (beaten a nose) and sets the standard based on that run. Jockey Richard Hughes and trainer Richard Hannon are always to be feared in this type of event and in Lexington Times they are represented by a colt who went close to taking a Sandown Group 3 contest recently. Heartbreak Hotel, The Great War and Kasb are just three who are likely to be concerned in the finish but the vote goes to Richard Fahey’s (one of 7 in the race) BOND’S GIRL who can take advantage of her featherweight of 8st 1lb. She beat the highly regarded fellow rival Kasb at Pontefract back in May and is now 6lb better off with John Gosden’s colt and has since finished a creditable fourth in Newbury’s valuable Super Sprint behind the flying Tiggy Wiggy. A reproduction of the run should see the Monsieur Bond go close for jockey Patrick Mathers.
ADVICE – 1 POINT E.W. BOND’S GIRL 20-1 PADDY POWER
3.45 crownhotel-bawtry.com HANDICAP
This extended 1m 2f contest looks to concern the three-year-old runners, the best of which are The Corsican, Mange All and LONG CROSS. The handicapper has been set an impossible task trying to rate John Gosden’s Cape Cross colt after just two runs but may have let the horse in lightly off a mark of 90. An eye-catching fourth in a Newbury maiden on his debut the mount of William Buick, with that run under his bet, was sent off a warm 4-7 for his next start at Newmarket and made short work of beating Soviet Courage who has since gone on to win at Goodwood by thirteen lengths. LONG CROSS may be short on experience but has the potential to prove better than a handicapper and should take some beating at the 4-1 on offer with 888sport.
ADVICE – 1 POINT WIN LONG CROSS 4-1 888sport
4.25 ONE CALL INSURANCE THOROUGHBRED BREEDERS ASSOCIATION FILLIES’ HANDICAP
A reproduction of FLIPPANT’S Newbury victory last month should be good enough to win this off a 5lb higher mark with Blue Waltz the most likely danger
ADVICE – 1 POINT WIN FLIPPANT – BEST MORNING PRICE
5.00 DFS BRITISH STALLION STUDS EBF MAIDEN STAKES
With only 4 of the 17 runners having seen a racecourse before this makes no appeal as a betting contest where the market is the only guide to the possible outcome.
5.35 DOWNLOAD THE LADBROKES BINGO APP HANDICAP
The final race on the opening day finishes with a wide-open 6f sprint handicap in which most of the field can be given a chance most notably Mission Approved, Shore Step, Bajan Bear and Run With Pride but the David Barron-trained MISSISSIPPI is taken as a sporting selection. The five-year-old has dropped to what is now a winnable mark of 82 and if reproducing his nose second over the course and distance last June won’t be far away.
ADVICE – 1 POINT E.W. MISSISSIPPI – BEST MORNING PRICE