The form book often goes out of the window in a derby match, but it can’t hurt to have some of the stats at hand to help your Newcastle v Sunderland Betting.
The Magpies have turned the tide after a forgettable start to the season and head into this weekend’s Tyne-Wear derby seventh in the table with an 8 point advantage over their visiting rivals. But Newcastle will be taking nothing for granted after losing their last three meetings with Sunderland, including a couple of 0-3 horror shows at St James’ Park.
The Black Cats inability to land a killer blow in many games this season results in them hovering just 2 points above the relegation zone. But such is the competitive nature of the Premier League that a fourth successive victory over Newcastle could lift them clear and if results elsewhere go their way over Christmas then Gus Poyet’s men could be in the mix for a top-half finish.
Who Will Win?
Newcastle have the home advantage, but having suffered a couple of heavy defeats recently it could be risky backing them at odds of 11/10 and that’s compounded by the fact that they’ve failed to beat Sunderland in the last five attempts.
But then, the Black Cats have never won four successive league derbies against Newcastle and the fact that they have equalled Ipswich’s record of drawing 10 of the first 16 games in a Premier League campaign this season can’t be ignored.
Sunderland have been drawing at both half time and full time in 5 of their last 6 matches in the Premier League, while
Newcastle have been drawing at half time and winning at full time in their last 4 home matches.
Interestingly, if matches ended a half-time this season, Newcastle would be bottom of the table with 12 points, while Sunderland have scored three goals in the opening five minutes of Premier League games this season; more than any other side.
Call it sitting on the fence, but the stats point to this one ending level. The Draw can be backed at 5/2 with bet365, while a Half-Time/Full-Time bet on Sunderland/Draw is a massive price of 17/1 with Betvictor.
Other Bets To Consider
There have been over 3 goals scored in each of the past three meetings between these rivals, with Sunderland scoring at least twice in each of those games. Over 2.5 Goals is 5/4 with Betfair Sportsbook, while Sunderland are 11/4 at Coral to score 2 or more goals.
Only Swansea with 4, have had more red cards than Newcastle with 3 this season, while Sunderland have picked up the most yellow cards with 37 so far. There have been five red cards in the last eight Premier League meetings between these two sides, although both teams finished the last three derbies with a full quota on the pitch.
BetBright aren’t taking any risks with their price of 8/15 that Sunderland pick up the most yellow cards, but odds of 5/6 with bet365 on their being over 5.5 total cards in the game look fair enough.
It’s also worth mentioning that Papiss Cisse has scored five goals in his last seven Premier League appearances as a substitute, but has netted just four goals in his last 26 Premier League starts, so could be one for the In-Play bettors to keep an eye on should he start on the bench.