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Politics Betting: Odds Plummet on a 2024 UK General Election


Rishi Sunak Spring Speech

The next UK General Election will take place in 2024 if the recent betting movements are any guide. The gamble on a visit to the ballot box not happening anytime in the next 22 months came after Chancellor Rishi Sunak delivered his Spring Statement in the House of Commons.

Among the measures Sunak announced to tackle the cost of living crisis included a pledge to cut income tax by 2024 and the suggestion the government will wait until then to call an election saw the odds of a 2024 poll crumble into 1/6 in places – the odds were 4/6 just a fortnight ago.

As some critics were claiming the Chancellor had still failed to help those out of work or on low incomes, people were urgently placing bets on a Conservative stay of execution.

The odds on a 2022 General Election have now been pushed out to 14/1. It was 8/1 prior to the Spring Statement.


Boris Safe For 2022?

Meanwhile, despite upwards of 20 fixed penalty notices – for a breach of Covid restrictions – arriving on the Downing Street doormat, the odds of Boris Johnson being replaced before the end of the year have drifted to 11/4 from 13/8.

The UK are not at war but traditionally support for a British leader grows during wartime and Johnson’s support for Ukraine has earned approval. In fact, a recent YouGov poll indicated Johnson’s approval rating is currently at it highest point since autumn 2021.


Sunak to Lead?

Betting on the next leader of the British Isles suggests Rishi Sunak will be the next resident of 10 Downing Street. He is best odds of 5/1 with Quinnbet, giving him a narrow lead over Labour leader Keir Starmer (11/2).

To lead the Conservative Party following Johnson, Sunak is top-priced 11/4 with William Hill. Liz Truss (6/1), Tom Tugendhat (7/1) and Jeremy Hunt (9/1) follow.

The market on Starmer’s replacement at the head of the Labour Party is topped by Andy Burnham. The Greater Manchester Mayor is 3/1.


Latest UK Political Odds:

Year Boris Johnson Is Replaced As PM

  • 5/6 – 2024 or later
  • 11/4 – 2022
  • 11/4 – 2023

Year of Next UK Election

  • 1/6 – 2024
  • 5/1 – 2023
  • 14/1 – 2022

Next Prime Minister Odds

  • 5/1 – Rishi Sunak
  • 11/2 – Keir Starmer
  • 6/1 – Liz Truss
  • 10/1 – Tom Tugendhat
  • 10/1 – Jeremy Hunt
  • 12/1 – Penny Mordaunt
  • 14/1 – Ben Wallace
  • 18/1 – Sajid Javid
  • 25/1 Bar

* Politics odds correct at the time of publication. All betting odds subject to change.