The result of the 2013 Qatar Prix de L’arc de Triomphe could well be decided by just how much rain falls on the Paris track over the next three days with the likes of Flintshire and The Fugue requiring good or faster conditions if they are to take part in Europe’s richest race while soft ground would be welcome for the connections of several runners including the Roger Charlton-trained Al Kazeem who will bid to add to the three Group 1 races he has already won this season.
Whatever the state of the ground on Sunday last year’s runner-up and 5-2 favourite Orfevre is easily the one to beat after the 5-year-old’s wellbeing was confirmed with a comfortable victory in the Qatar Prix Foy last month, one of several recognised Arc trials run at Longchamp on September 15th. Having advised the son of Stay Gold at 5-1 to go one better 12 month’s later we can go into the race confident of a big run at the very least but it could be worth having a saver on a horse who looks way over priced at the 14-1 available with William Hill.
Two Epsom Derby winners have gone on to win the Arc in the same season recently – Sea The Stars in 2009 and Workforce the following year – and it would be no surprise to see Ruler Of The World follow in the footsteps of those two horses by taking the 2014 renewal for trainer Aidan O’Brien and jockey Ryan Moore. But for a below-par effort when a well beaten fifth in the Dubai Duty Free Irish Derby, a run that was too bad to be true, the Galileo colt has done absolutely nothing wrong and with the horse looking far from the finished article at Epsom there is surely more improvement to come from the Ballydoyle inmate.
Given time to recover from that Curragh setback Ruler Of The World, although beaten a short head by fellow rival Kizuna, was the moral winner of the recognised Arc trial the Qatar Prix Niel, coming with a storming late run and just failing to catch the winner who is no bigger than 8-1 for Sunday’s race. Anything other than extreme ground should be ideal for Ryan Moore’s mount and with 3-year-old’s having won eight of the last ten Arc’s Ruler Of The World looks way over priced to cause Orfevre most problems in what looks a vintage renewal at the weekend.
Recommendation: Ruler Of The World – 14/1 (William Hill)