When Will the Next General Election Take Place?

With the news that Boris Johnson has resigned as Prime Minister, the race is on to be the next leader of the Conservative Party and the country as a whole. They will be elected to run the country by Conservative Party members, not the nation, and therefore, the pressure will be on to hold a general election to show their worth to the nation and give them the mandate to lead the country moving forward.

But when could that be? Betting on when the next general election will take place is always available, but how has the resignation of Johnson changed this?

We know for certain that the election will take place between now and sometime in 2024, with three years possible.

A 2024 general election remains favourite in the market, available with Paddy Power at 4/11, which implies a 73.3% chance of happening. This would need a clean break from Johnson, with the new person coming in being welcomed by not only the Conservative Party but also others. This would give them the ability to lead and have the confidence to do so without needing to prove themselves in an election.

But what if that doesn’t happen?

Could a 2022 election take place? Never say never with the way politics has been for the past few years. This would need a messy handover, with either Johnson refusing to depart over the summer if asked, or big questions for the new Prime Minister. If this happens, a route to a 2022 general election would be there and this is priced up at 7/2 (22.2% chance).

The outsider of the field is right in the middle, and that is for a 2023 general election, which is priced up at 9/2 (18.2% chance). This would require a bit of both scenarios from above, so it makes sense to be the outsider.

The handover needs to be clean, and the start needs to be strong, which would avoid a 2022 election. However, we then need to see things change, and go downhill, so that the person taking over isn’t able to ride it out until 2024, and instead they have to prove their worth with a 2023 election.

The bookmakers think that 2024 is the front runner, but if things go badly in the coming weeks, a quickfire 2022 general election could well be on the cards.