York 2015 Ebor Festival Betting Guide - Day 4
Freebets.com racing expert Alan Kelly has provided followers of his tips with numerous winners at the Ebor Festival and provides a race-by-race guide to Saturday’s card at York.
2.00 BETFRED MOBILE STRENSALL STAKES ( GROUP 3 ) 1m 208y
Plenty can be considered for this Group 3 contest including the lightly-raced Convey, Mutakayyef from the all-conquering William Haggas stable, John Smith’s Cup winner Master Carpenter as well as Mahsoob who looked a good prospect until disappointing last time. Godolphin’s improving handicapper Basem is another to consider but this could concern a couple of northern challengers in the shape of Mondialiste and TOP NOTCH TONTO. The former hacked up at Pontefract on his most recent start and looks the type to progress as a Group performer for his talented handler but it is Brian Ellison’s charge who is marginally preferred under what could prove ideal conditions for the mount of Silvestre De Sousa.
Recommendation – 1 Point each-way Top Notch Tonto 8-1 Boylesports
2.35 BETFRED MELROSE STAKE ( HANDICAP ) 1m 6f
The handicapper has taken no chances with the Aidan O’Brien joint top weight Outspoken who has faced only six opponents in his two races this season, the most recent being a comfortable victory on the all-weather at Dundalk. Hard to rule out many of the 20 runners but the three to concentrate on may be DANNYDAY from the Sir Michael Stoute stable and the Luca Cumain pair of King Bolete and Al. King Bolete looks to be crying out for this 1m 6f trip and slightly easier ground than he has encountered in his last three starts while Al, who looked to be struggling at Newmarket last time over a mile and a half, was finishing with such purpose that the Halling colt had seven lengths to spare over the runner-up at the line. The Stoute runner looked an improving stayer when winning at Haydock in June but could never get to grips with Polarization last time. The son of Dansili should reverse the form on 2lb better terms and will be much better suited by this bigger field and guaranteed faster pace and should not be far away at the 12-1 available with Paddy Power.
Recommendation – 1 Point each-way Dannyday 14-1 Betfair Sportsbook ( 5 places )
3.05 IRISH THOROUGHBRED MARKETING GIMCRACK STAKES ( GROUP 2 ) 6f
Coventry Stakes winner Buratino sets the standard here but the Mark Johnston-trained colt failed to run up to that form when finishing third at the Curragh recently and has to conede 3lb to his rivals, the most interesting being the US raider FINNEGAN. Trainer Wesley Ward has enjoyed tremendous success when sending his juveniles over to Europe and the son of Unbridled’s Song can justify his handler’s confidence by taking the Group 2 contest following an impressive maiden win at Pimlico back in May. The Haggas pair of Ajaya and Raucous are respected along with the speedy King Of Rooks.
Recommendation – 1 Point Win Finnegan 10-3 Coral ( money back if beaten a length or less )
3.45 BETFRED EBOR ( HERITAGE Handicap ) 1m 6f
Europe’s most valuable handicap is reviewed in more detail here with ARABIAN COMET taken to come home in front from the consistent dual-purpose Irish raider Quick Jack.
Recommendation – 1 Point each-way Arabian Comet 22-1 Betway
4.20 JULIA GRAVES ROSES STAKES ( LISTED ) 5f
The Mark Johnston-trained Riflescope looked to have his limitations exposed at Goodwood last time and it is William Haggas’s ORNATE who is likely to be all the rage considering the bullish noises coming from the trainer who put this Ripon maiden winner as his best chance of a winner this week. The handler has been in terrific form on the Knavesmire and can add this race to his tally at the expense of Kurland who should appreciate dropping back to the minimum trip.
Recommendation – 1 Point Win Ornate 10-11 Coral ( money back if beaten a length or less )
4.55 BETFRED SUPPORTS JACK BERRY HOUSE STAKES ( HANDICAP ) 1m 2f 88y
This may be fought out by those towards the top of the handicap with top weigh Battalion respected along with Elhaame, Earth Drummer and Master Of Finance but the one to beat is the Luca Cumani-trained ROSEBURG who was progressive last season and failed by a head to win on his seasonal reappearance at Doncaster earlier this month. The ground and trip should be perfect for the four-year-old who can take this ahead of a successful autumn campaign.
Recommendation – 1 Point each-way Roseburg 6-1 Coral ( money back if beaten a length or less )
5.25 BETFRED APPRENTICE STAKES ( HANDICAP ) 5f
Moonraker heads the weights for this sprint over the minimum trip and must have a good chance of going one better than when beaten a nose in the Roses Stakes 12 months ago, especially following his comeback victory in the Shergar Cup Sprint recently. Scent Of Summer looks best of the two William Haggas runners while Handsome Dude and Imtiyyaz are both in good form and should go close but the vote goes to THESME at the bottom of the handicap. An easy winner of a Redcar handicap in June the quick reappearance didn’t suit when well beaten as the 11-10 favourite at Nottingham but showed that run to be all wrong when making most on the Knavesmire a month later, a reproduction of which should see the filly take some catching under apprentice Rachel Richardson.
Recommendation – 1 Point each-way Thesme 14-1 Generally