Dolniya Arc Value Against Treve And Company
18 Horses remain in contention for Sunday’s Qatar Prix De L’Arc De Triomphe at Longchamp headed by dual winner Treve who will attempt to become the first horse to win Europe’s most valuable contest on three occasions, and following the great mare’s demolition-job in the Prix Vermeille last month few would bet against the Criquette Head-Maarek-trained short priced favourite failing to do the business on the Bois De Boulogne this weekend but from a value perspective an each-way interest in a 33-1 outsider may prove a more profitable investment for the great race.
Trained by Alain de Royer-Dupre, successful with Dalakhani in 2003 and Zarkava five years later, the four-year-old filly Dolniya is well capable of causing a huge upset for owner HH Aga Khan IV who will be trying to win the race for a fifth time. The daughter of Azamour lacked the necessary racing experience when fifth in the 2014 renewal, beaten a little over four lengths, but proved a different proposion in the early part of this year when winning at Chantilly and Meydan.
The second of those victories resulted in a comprehensive defeat of the top class Flintshire ( runner-up in last year’s Arc ) elevating the filly as a serious challenger to Treve’s attempt at a hat-trick of Arc wins. Unfortunately things have not gone to plan for the mount of Christophe Soumillon in her most recent starts but there are good reasons to think that a form revival may be on the cards and if that proves to be the case the 33-1 generally available with bookmakers looks too big, especially with most firms quoting 1/4 odds a place.
A neck second to Pethers Moon in Epsom’s Coronation Cup is hardly Arc-winning form but the four-runner race hardly played to the fillies’ strengths and while no match for Treve and Flintshire in the Grand Prix De Saint-Cloud the left-handed course may not have suited Dolniya who can be forgiven her most recent run when fourth in the Prix Foy, as this Arc trial is often used as a stepping-stone to the main course on the first Sunday in October.
Andre Fabre’s French Derby winner New Bay has to be respected along with Irish raider Free Eagle but leading British hope Golden Horn may have had one hard race too many this season so at a huge price Dolniya is the selection to make the frame at the very least.
1 Point each-way Dolniya 33-1 Generally