England v South Africa
Vitality IT20 series, second match (of three)
Thursday July 28, 2022, 6.30pm
Sophia Gardens, Cardiff
All hail Richard Gleeson, who claimed three wickets in his final over last night to bring home our 9/2 shot on him to be England’s top bowler in the series opening win at Bristol.
Before we get into the tips for this evening, there was one thing which surprised me from the series opener. Lungi Ngidi taking five wickets yet his team conceding 230 plus. I’d wager that hasn’t happened too often in T20 cricket anywhere around the world.
In the preview for the opening T20 clash, I suggested England to win the series 2-1. My hunch is they will win tonight and lose on Sunday at Southampton with the series wrapped up.
They are 4/7 to win this game, but I would rather look elsewhere for some value. And I think Ladbrokes are offering some.
Unders on total match runs the play with bet365
Before we get into the Ladbrokes bets, I have to say that for starters the Under 355.5 total match runs with bet365 looks the obvious play here, despite last night’s run fest in Bristol. That comes in at 5/6.
Of course, betting is not all about stats. But some you can’t ignore.
In only one of eight previous T20 internationals at this ground dating back to 2010 has that tally been exceeded, while Glamorgan’s T20 Blast campaign this year saw no match aggregate reach 355.5 runs across seven games.
It has always been a slow and low surface in the Principality, and there’s no reason to think that will change.
Ladbrokes price boost on de Kock has appeal
Quinton de Kock has been price boosted from 9/4 to 10/3 to score a fifty in this fixture - certainly a bet that caught my eye.
It is something the left-handed opener hasn’t done in seven T20 innings dating back to last September. On that basis, he is due.
It is not as if the classy 29-year-old is out of form. He scored a brilliant 92 only two innings ago in the rained off ODI at Headingley on Sunday.
No reason why Roy can’t end his quiet period
Opening against the hard new ball may be the best time to bat if the pitch is slow.
There have been so many limited overs games through July that they all kind of blend into one.
So you can forgive me for not taking full note of Jason Roy’s exact scores this summer.
When I saw that Ladbrokes priced him at 4/1 to top score for England tonight, I initially thought, ‘Nah, that’s not great value as he hasn’t scored a run for England of late’.
So I double checked and noticed that his last five innings have yielded scores of 8, 14, 43, 41 and 23.
Now, that kind of form is a long way from crash hot, but equally it’s not disastrous.
He is a quality player who will post a big score at some point. Why not tonight?
I’d be more than happy to take a chance that will be the case.
As an alternative, like de Kock, Ladbrokes have price boosted him from 5/2 to 7/2 to score a fifty in the match. That may be a decent shout if you don’t want to get stung on him performing but being ousted by an even bigger score from elsewhere.