Even though their season started in a very slow fashion, Fiorentina have been delivering great results across all competitions in the last couple of months. Their fans have been waiting for a European trophy since the 1961 UEFA Cup Winners’ Cup and this could be a perfect opportunity to end the drought.
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Viola have reached the UEFA Conference League semi-finals where they are the favorites to advance against Swiss side Basel. Visitors have been consistent in playing in European competitions in the last decade, but their recent performances are nowhere close to UCL appearances from 2018.
In terms of the latest odds, bookmakers in the UK are heavily favouring the home side to win the first tie at 2/5, so we are forced to fish for more value in other markets.
An action-Packed Match is Expected
Fiorentina were defeated last weekend at Diego Armando Maradona Stadium by the freshly-crowned Serie A champions Napoli (0-1), but truth be told, they have zero reasons to sweat about it after being stuck in the mid-table.
Vincenzo Italiano’s side is specialized in elimination format competitions this season, reaching the Coppa Italia finals where they will face Inter Milan later this month. Viola eliminated Cremonese, Torino, and Sampdoria while keeping a clean sheet in three of four matches.
Their defending was not that great in the UEFA Conference League playoffs though, conceding four goals in the quarter-finals duels versus Lech Poznan (still advanced 6-4 on aggregate).
Basel have been scoring regularly in Europe (8 goals in their last 4 matches) while failing to keep a clean sheet in 13 of their previous 14 matches across competitions. In my opinion, there is good value in backing home victory and both teams to score at 2/1.
Arthur Cabral to strike first
Brazilian striker Arthur Cabral is having a blast in this year’s UEFA Conference League. He has found the net six times in his last seven appearances in this competition, scoring three goals against Braga, and one versus Sivasspor, Lech Poznan, and Rigas.
Cabral is also having a decent season in Fiorentina’s domestic matches, finding the back of the net seven times in Serie A and once in Coppa Italia. Hosts missed scoring in front of the home crowd just once in their last 13 appearances, so Basel’s chances to get away with a clean sheet are minimal. I fancy the 4/1 bet on the Brazilian striker to break the deadlock.
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