The new Premier League season is just days away, and this week, we’ll be previewing the start in great depth with antepost preview articles covering every angle of the new season.
Today I start with some bigger odds, on the look out for big value on the antepost markets. I have four picks at double figure odds for the new Premier League season, across a variety of different markets. With odds of 28/1, 20/1, 12/1 and 12/1, if you want something big before kick off, these picks, and the markets I’m using, are the ideal starting point.
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Here’s the four at double figure odds that stand out.
League Winner Tricast - Man City 1st, Liverpool 2nd, Arsenal 3rd at 20/1
There’s no value in picking the winner of the Premier League, as most will fancy Man City or Liverpool to take the title. Most will also think they will be the top two, which is what makes this bet so appealing. Behind the top two, anything could happen. Arsenal are the only team that have seemingly got better and really addressed their needs (a striker), Spurs have taken a couple of risks that may or may not work for them, Manchester United have big overhanging problems with Ronaldo to fix, and Chelsea haven’t really done much other than sign Raheem Sterling, who has a bit to prove.
I think all of this leaves the door wide open for Arsenal to make a big push this season, and while the top two are too far ahead for now, third is certainly a strong shout. The odds on Arsenal finishing in the top four and City to win the league aren’t that appealing, and I’d much rather be with the 20/1 available on this bet.
City are my title pick, Liverpool are really the only side capable of chasing them down, and Arsenal are certainly in with a chance of finishing third. 20/1 seems to be good value to me, something I’m happy to take.
With Gabriel Jesus firing already, he’s going to be a fascinating watch (more on him later in the article) and he could give Arsenal the out and out goalscorer they’ve needed for a while. With plenty of creativity behind him, a young core that is growing together, and perhaps most importantly of all, genuine optimism around the team from fans, this could be the year things begin to go right again for The Gunners.
Finding value at the top is not easy, but this bet represents that and kicks off our longshots for the new season.
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Man City 1st, Liverpool 2nd, Arsenal 3rd - 20/1 Premier League Tricast
A top of the table tricast featuring Arsenal looks good value
At 20/1 a £10 bet would return £210
Premier League 22/23 Season
Bournemouth, Fulham & Leeds to be Relegated at 28/1
Finding value down at the bottom is easier, but if you want bigger odds then again, you will have to put multiple teams together. We go in again with three, this time it’s the three teams to be relegated from the Premier League, and my picks are Bournemouth, Fulham and Leeds, a bet which comes in at 28/1.
Kicking off with Bournemouth, they’ve done minimal business so far, and while you don’t have to go back too long to find the last time they were in the Premier League, they have the hallmark of a team underestimating the step up. They spent in January to get into the division, but haven’t backed that up with anything of note, and look to be three or four players short of what is needed to have any hope of survival. Given that, they are one of the my three to go down.
Onto Fulham, one of the yo-yo clubs and it could be the same again for them this season. Often accused of going too big and bringing in too many players, this year, so far, they’ve done the opposite. But what they have done, is fall into the same trap of going out and buying unproven Premier League talent, rather than trying to buy players who have been there and done it all before. The feeling around Fulham, like Norwich, is one that sort of brings relegation on as an inevitability, rather than being optimistic and going in with nothing to lose, and that isn’t going to help. Fulham are the second relegation pick.
We round off with the third and final pick, which is where the value is really added to this bet and that is Leeds. The way Leeds played last season was very poor, especially towards the end, despite just surviving on the final day. What they’ve done this summer worries me, because it will either pay off big time and they’ll finish mid table, or it’ll fail spectacularly, and they’ll be in the relegation scrap once again. Losing arguably their two best players, Raphinha and Kalvin Phillips, fair play to Leeds as they’ve spent the money they’ve received, in a bid to make their squad better.
However, what they’ve failed to do is bring anyone in who has an understanding of the Premier League. Every signing is in the same category, could be great, could flop, a gamble. Couple that with coach Jesse Marsch still having plenty to prove, and this looks to be a team full of risk and reward. Another common trait with the players coming in is that they are young, often a positive, but is that what Leeds need this year, as they look to steady the ship? I don’t think so.
Down at the bottom, the 28/1 on Bournemouth, Fulham and Leeds to be relegated is big enough for me.
Bournemouth, Fulham and Leeds to be Relegated - 28/1
Two newcomers and Leeds the picks to go down
At 28/1 a £10 bet would return £290
Premier League 22/23 Season
Leeds to be Bottom on Xmas Day at 12/1
Following on from the Leeds to be relegated theme, the third pick here is Leeds to be bottom on Xmas Day. Mainly for the same reasoning above, Leeds have taken a lot of risks with the signings they have made, and you can argue that Marsch being head coach is a bigger risk now than it looked when he was appointed, based on the end of last season.
Different from the above, is that of course, Marsch may not be in for the full season, a bad start would likely see him replaced at some point, so there could be a 2023 recovery, which is what makes this bet appealing. There is also the chance that some of their players new to the league may eventually find their feet and perform in the second half.
But none of that will help in the first half of the season. Given how last season ended, there is going to be a lot of pressure on Leeds to perform, and with many of the newcomers being fairly young, it will be interesting to see how the squad as a whole copes with that. As I’ve already said, Leeds will go one of two ways for me, they’ll either succeed and push for the top half, or be right in the mix at the bottom.
If down at the bottom, expect them to try and fix it in January, who knows what happens then, so I’m happy to go with Leeds being bottom on Xmas Day, and take that out of the equation.
Leeds to be Bottom on Xmas Day - 12/1
With plenty of questions to answer, Leeds could struggle again this season
At 12/1 a £10 bet would return £130
Premier League 22/23 Season
Gabriel Jesus Top Premier League Goalscorer at 12/1
The fashionable pick it seems, a player who was 20/1 just a week ago, something I tipped up on our Premier League golden boot page, but now, the odds are much shorter. That doesn’t mean Jesus isn’t of interest anymore, he’s got a great shout and 12/1 is about the right price for him, given the strange season we are about to have.
Of course, everything I mention here could well affect Jesus, alongside his opponents in this race. With six weeks off in the summer for the World Cup, how players react is going to be fascinating to watch. Will there be injuries, will players struggle to get back into shape and the hussle and bustle of the Premier League when they return? How does having so much time off in the middle of the season affect Erling Haaland and Mo Salah? There’s plenty to think about, and reasons to oppose those at the head of the market.
That’s why I’m looking for value, and someone to back each way, and Jesus looks perfect. As I said at the top when discussing Arsenal, I think he’s a perfect fit for what they need. This team has plenty of creativity in it, plenty of players who can run with the ball, they need an out and out goalscorer to finish things off, and be in the right place at the right time, and Jesus is the man to do that. Never given a proper swing of the bat at City, always being the understudy, I think he’ll approach the season with something to prove, which makes him dangerous.
I see Jesus as having a perfect World Cup in terms of what he can do for Arsenal, before he goes and after he’s back. Salah and Haaland have a six week break, where many of their squad won’t be around, so keeping fit will rely on fitting in with the youth teams at their clubs. Harry Kane will have a heavy schedule, likely playing every minute of every game for England, which will take its toll at some point. Jesus will go to the World Cup with Brazil, but won’t feature heavily and may find himself in a position where he is doing enough to maintain peak fitness, with a few minutes to keep up match sharpness, but isn’t doing anything which could be seen as overkill, to take prevent him from being at his best when returning to Arsenal.
Each way betting covers the first four players, and barring an injury, I’m struggling to see four players who score more than Jesus, with the complexities of the schedule this season adding more questions to the mix.
Gabriel Jesus Premier League Golden Boot Winner - 12/1
Jesus is fancied to fire for Arsenal this season
At 12/1 a £10 bet would return £130
Premier League 22/23 Season
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