There will be just a few days between the season-opening Bahrain Grand Prix and the opening practice session of this weekend’s Saudi Arabian Grand Prix.
Thousands of miles away from their factories, teams will have little opportunity to add new parts to their cars or make meaningful upgrades to them. It means results from last Sunday’s race should be representative of what we can expect this weekend.
Bahrain Benchmark
The current 2022 pecking order is clear: Red Bull and Ferrari are closely matched at the head of the field. There is a sizeable gap back to Mercedes in third.
All other teams can be described as ‘mid pack’ except for Williams and McLaren. The two famous brands appear the slowest of all. The pecking order will change as the season progresses, and Mercedes will find their form in time.
But until the teams return to Europe for The Emilia Romagna Grand Prix – race four of the season on April 24 – the results from the Bahrain Grand Prix are likely to be a good indicator of things to come in Saudi Arabia and Australia.
Saudi Arabia Grand Prix – Winner Odds via bet365*
- 11/8 Charles LeClerc
- 6/4 Max Verstappen
- 7/1 Carlos Sainz
- 10/1 Lewis Hamilton
- 16/1 Sergio Perez
- 33/1 George Russell
- 66/1 Kevin Magnussen
- 100/1 bar
Safety in Saudi is a Safe Bet
Of course, Bahrain featured a safety car deployment late into the race. It never looked likely until Pierre Gasly’s Alpha Tauri caught fire. It is much easier to predict a safety car at this weekend’s race. Wall-lined circuits like Saudi are conducive for accidents that delay the race.
A case in point is Singapore’s Marina Bay circuit. It has featured a safety car every year it has staged a Formula 1 contest. That’s 12 times in total.
In December 2021, when the Jeddah Corniche Circuit made its debut, incidents resulted in a safety car period, two red flags and four virtual safety cars. We can expect more of the same.
- 1/6 Safety Car to be used in Saudi Arabia GP (Nap)* cta_button_2
Red Bull Reliability Issues
The big shock from Bahrain was the demise of both Red Bull cars late into the race.
With the 6.1-kilometre Jeddah Corniche Circuit comprising of mainly flat-out sections and high-speed corners alongside the city’s Red Sea waterfront will their engines struggle to see out the full race distance for a second week?
There was nothing lucky about Charles Leclerc’s victory and there was no suggestion either of the Italian cars were nursing issues. That considered, the Monegasque driver looks the best bet for race victory on Sunday.
Alternative F1 Bet – Go Low on the Winning Margin
Another interesting feature of the Bahrain Grand Prix was tyre wear. The new F1 cars are being sucked into the ground and with Red Bull choosing to take three pit-stops in last week’s race, there is every chance the new car rips through rubber quickly.
On paper, cars should take two pit-stops in Jeddah. But it looks inevitable some will be forced into three. Added to the prospect of a late safety car that compresses the pack and three Drag Reduction Zones, the likelihood of a relatively small winning margin looks strong.
- 5/2 Winning Margin - Under 5 Seconds at BetVictor cta_button_2
* Saudi Arabia GP odds correct at the time of publication. All F1 odds subject to changes.
