We’ve got daily tips from our resident horse racing expert, Alan Kelly.
Latest Profit & Loss Figures
Once again, Aintree’s Grand National three-day meeting did not disappoint, although we ended the week with a small loss of -£4.15. Despite selections making the frame at odds of 14/1, 18/1, 25/1 and 33/1, that elusive big-priced winner failed to materialise.
- P/L for w/e Saturday 13th April: -£4.15
- P/L for 2024 to date: +£68.37
- P/L since 1st September 2022: +£353.54
Alan Kelly’s Horse Racing Tips for Friday, April 19th
The first day of Ayr’s Scottish Grand National meeting takes place on Friday afternoon and we have five tips from the popular west coast racecourse where the ground is expected to be on the soft side.
Nap of the Day - Beau Balko (3:55pm Ayr) - 11/2 with William Hill*
Paul Nicholls’ unexposed chaser is taken to end the winning run of Royal Mer on today’s terms and with conditions to suit.
2:50pm Ayr, 2m 4 1/2f - Jet Plane
In his quest for the trainers’ title, Dan Skelton runs two in this £50k handicap chase - top weight Heltenham and JET PLANE, with stable jockey Harry Skelton electing to ride the latter, while Ciaran Gething will be aboard his stablemate, who seems to reserve his best form for Newbury.
After opening his account for the season with a victory over 3m 2f at Newton Abbot in October, Jet Plane went off the boil somewhat on his next four starts. With that quartet of disappointing efforts behind him, the son of Jet Away was allowed to go off at odds of 22/1 for a 2m 4f handicap at Sandown last month, making a mockery of his price by running out a clear winner.
The eight-year-old was even more impressive on his most recent start last week when he ran away with a Market Rasen handicap from a horse that had won his previous race by 28 lengths. Due to go up 9lb in the future, Jet Plane can make the most of his 5lb penalty by landing the hat-trick if in the same kind of form.
Title rival Paul Nicholls, courtesy of last month’s Kempton winner Outlaw Pete, can provide the main danger to the selection, while Nick Alexander’s Dubai Days can make the frame at a decent price.
3:20pm Ayr, 2m 5 1/2f - Doddiethegreat & Bass Rock (Each-Way) (Longshot)
Not disgraced when 12th in the Coral Cup at the Cheltenham Festival, Nicky Henderson’s DODDIETHEGREAT runs off the same mark of 132 as when finishing fourth behind stablemate Iberico Lord in Newbury’s Betfair Hurdle on his previous start. Only 1lb higher than when going down by just over a length to the bang-in-form Go Dante on his handicap debut at Cheltenham’s December meeting, Nico de Boinville’s mount looks the one to beat in this £30k contest.
Along with a win bet on the Seven Barrows runner, I think it could be worth having an each-way investment in BASS ROCK (Each-Way) from the Sandy Thomson stable. Owner Raymond Anderson Green targets this, his favourite meeting, every year and off a revised mark of 123, the mount of Ryan Mania would have a great chance on some of his best form.
I thought the son of Martaline ran better than his finishing position of eighth suggested in Kelso’s Morebattle Hurdle last month. That was Bass Rock’s first start for three months and the gelding is sure to be spot-on for this, his main target of the season. Dan Skelton’s Theformismighty is the dark horse of the race and any market move for Harry Skelton’s mount should be noted.
3:55pm Ayr, 2m 1/2f - Beau Balko (Nap)
David Pipe’s Royal Mer has become something of a winning machine over the last five weeks or so since dropping down to the minimum trip, winning races at Leicester, Wetherby and Wincanton without really being extended. Despite racing off a mark some 22lb higher since beginning that successful run, Jack Tudor’s mount is still 3lb well-in here under a 7lb penalty.
While the Pond House runner is respected, as is Lucinda Russell’s joint top weight Salamanca Bay and Rath Gaul Hill, it is the other horse at the head of the handicap who appeals most, the Paul Nicholls-trained BEAU BALKO (Nap).
An easy winner on his only other visit to Scotland, when landing a competitive Musselburgh handicap under a big weight in February, Harry Cobden’s mount could never get competitive when staying-on to finish third at Kempton last month and is a lot better than he showed on that occasion.
4:30pm Ayr, 2m 4 1/2f - Plaisir Des Flos (Next Best)
Paul Nicholls’ Don’t Tell Su makes his handicap debut in this “Hands & Heels” Handicap hurdle in the hands of 3lb amateur Mr Charlie Sprake. An opening mark of 117 looks harsh enough for the Soldier Of Fortune gelding in a race which may concern a couple of horses further down the weights in Billytherealbigred and Plaisir Des Flos, with preference for the latter.
Both horses are unbeaten over hurdles in 2024. Fergal O’Brien’s charge won handicaps at Sedgefield and Wincanton, while the Oliver Greenall & Josh Guerriero contender, after winning on his handicap debut at Leicester in January for previous handler Evan Williams, is unbeaten for current connections courtesy of a couple of weak handicaps at Warwick and Market Rasen, both on testing ground.
I think Plaisir Des Flos’s most recent form is the stronger of the two when beating a well-regarded Anthony Honeyball horse (gave 18lb) with the third horse 28 lengths away. 10lb Higher now, Miss Fern O’Brien’s mount still looks capable of defying a mark of 101.
* Betting odds correct at the time of publication. All odds are subject to changes.
About Alan Kelly
A passionate follower of horse racing for over 50 years, Alan has enjoyed a 40-year career in the betting industry, 28 of which he spent running his own betting shop as an owner/manager.
A successful punter with a keen eye for value, Alan has had many betting highlights down the years, including a Scoop 6 win and has shown a consistent profit in the battle with bookmakers since joining Freebets.com in 2008.
You can follow Alan on Twitter for more racing insight.
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