I’m always keen on horses dropping down in class, even though it means carrying top weight in handicaps, which would put many people off. It is an angle that can be regularly exploited, as the horse in question can, by definition, run faster for longer than the opposition he faces, regardless of weight.
Clearly, this didn’t work with Havingotascoobydo yesterday, as evidently he has something drastically amiss. However, there is a much more reliable betting proposition at Fontwell Park today.
Queen’s Bay is a genuine and reliable mare, particularly on soft ground, and is a class above her rivals in the 3m 2f handicap chase at 5.10.
Go back through her form for Colin Tizzard and there is some strong form with decent mares like Violin Davis, Valmari and Swincombe Flame.
She was used to racing against 110/120 rated rivals off level weights, whereas today she gets in this class 4 handicap off a rating of 106, with Conor Shoemark taking off a priceless 5lbs. At 11/2 with Sportingbet, she will relish the likely softening ground, being by Karinga Bay and out of a mare who won over 3m 3f a real stamina test will suit.
On her last run and second outing for Jamie Snowden, she ran well to be a close third behind Oscarslad (who was perked up by the application of cheekpieces,) in a much better race.
There are doubts about her rivals either on ability or an affinity for rain softened ground. She should be near favourite in my book and 11/2 represents a cracking price.
Fontwell Park 5.10 – Queen’s Bay 11/2 (Sportingbet)