Novak Djokovic v Stefanos Tsitsipas
Australian Open Men’s Final
Sunday, January 29, 2023 (8.30am UK)
Rod Laver Arena, Melbourne Park
Not only would Novak Djokovic equal the all-time grand slam record with a victory, but he would also stand alone in terms of Australian Open success. This would be the Serb’s 10th men’s singles title in Melbourne.
And I can’t really see him failing in his quest, reflected in the 2/9 price on offer widely across several bookmakers.
Djokovic to win the title at 10/11 is the only bet left standing from my pre-tournament preview, and with that in mind, I’m going to swerve that 2/9 on the outright win and pick out some other value bets - all of which include him to win.
Despite only losing one set en route to the final - in the second round against Enzo Couacaud - Djokovic’s passage through the field has not been without its challenges. That mainly came from a shaky hamstring, but he was forced to battle in the earlier rounds.
Even though he has looked incredibly strong in the last three rounds against Alex De Minaur, Andrey Rublev and Tommy Paul, I do think the popular Greek Tsitsipas has enough to ensure this final isn’t all one-way traffic.
Djokovic win covered in super sextet of bets
Betfair are offering 6/5 on a Djokovic victory, and both players to win a set.
Whereas Djokovic has won five of his six matches in straight sets, Tsitsipas isn’t far behind him, having won four matches by a 3-0 margin.
The form Tsitsipas has shown has been good enough to expect that he can avoid being over-run in what will be his second career grand slam final.
Ladbrokes have price-boosted Djokovic to win and over 34.5 games in the match to 13/8, and I would be taking that given I expect it to be a final involving four sets.
Bet365 have a Djokovic win by 3-1 in sets at a price of 14/5 - that is how I expect the final to play out.
If Tsitsipas can beat Djokovic in this final, it will be a popular success.
The 24-year-old has delighted the Australian crowds with his endearing persona and post-match interviews, be it from inviting actress Margot Robbie to one of his matches and even committing to donating some of his prize money to charity.
He is a best price of 19/5 to triumph.
I quite like these two players, and I would be no means gutted to see Tsitsipas win. I think back to Wimbledon when a badly behaving Nick Kyrgios beat him, and I felt sorry for him that day.
But I think he will have to wait a bit longer.
SportingIndex have priced up a Set Exacta market, and if you agree with me that Djokovic will win 3-1, it may be worth considering small stakes spread across a trio of markets.
They have priced up both Djokovic to lose the first set and win the next three and him to win the first two sets, lose the third and win the fourth at 7/1.
Djokovic winning the first set, losing the second and winning the next two is 8/1.
* Betting odds correct at the time of publication. All odds are subject to changes.
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