Matches in international football don’t come a lot bigger than this, with both Wales and Poland battling it out for a spot at the European Championships.
Both Wales and Poland have become major tournament stalwarts in recent times, but one will miss out on Euro 2024, making this single-elimination play-off final enormously significant for both.
The pair cruised through their respective Path A semi-finals on Thursday night, with Wales swatting aside Finland 4-1.
David Brooks volleyed home after just two and a half minutes, a dream start, before Neco Williams’ stupendous free-kick doubled their lead, only for the Finns to pull one back in first half injury time.
Nevertheless, this matted not because, less than 100 seconds after the restart, Brennan Johnson restored the two-goal advantage from close-range, before Dan James capped off the victory towards the end.
As debutants, the Dragons got all the way to the semi-finals at Euro 2016, and are now 90 minutes away from qualifying for three successive European Championships, having also featured at the most-recent World Cup.
To get to Qatar, Rob Page’s side also came through the play-offs, ousting both Austria and Ukraine in Cardiff, hoping to expirence a sense of déjà vu.
Home advantage will be key, given that Wales have lost only three of their last 21 competitive fixtures in front of the red wall, memorably beating Croatia in October, so does that give them the edge?
Poland meantime went one better on Thursday, swatting aside Estonia 5-1 at Stadion Narodowy.
Przemysław Frankowski broke the deadlock mid-way through the first 45 so, when the Blueshirts were reduced to ten-men soon after, the tie was more-or-less over as a contest.
Piotr Zieliński, Jakub Piotrowski, an own goal and then Sebastian Szymański all added to the rout, meaning Estonia’s late goal was of no consequence, even if Wojciech Szczęsny was furious about losing his clean sheet.
The Eagles are aiming to qualify for a fifth successive Euros, having also featured at four of the last six World Cups, including the last two.
Poland are only involved in these play-offs following a catastrophic 2023, sacking Fernando Santos after a mere six games in charge, while his successor Michał Probierz is yet to taste defeat.
Concerningly for the home crowd, Wales did win their first-ever meeting with White-reds at Ninian Park in 1973, but are winless in nine attempts since then, losing all six since 2000.
When the pair clashed in the UEFA Nations League two years ago, Karol Świderski’s late goal snatched victory in Wrocław, while he was then also the only scorer in Cardiff three months later.
Nevertheless, in do-or-die scenarios at the Cardiff City Stadium, Wales almost always get the job done.
With a place in Group D of the Euros at stake, alongside France, Netherlands and Austria, who will prevail in this huge game, that may require extra time and who knows, possibly even penalties?
Wales to qualify
As alluded to, it’s tough to pick a winner, but we are backing Wales to make it through to the Euros, even if they may require longer than 90 minutes to achieve this.
The Dragons are so strong in front of their own supporters and, as we saw in the semi-finals in both Path A and C, home advantage counts for a lot.
Poland meantime were terrible away from home during qualifying, losing three of four matches, beaten 3-1 by Czechia in Prague, 2-0 by Albania in Tirana and 3-2 by Moldova in Chișinău, their sole away win coming in the Faroe Islands.
Both teams to receive multiple cards and under 2.5 goals
A nervy night is expected for those in attendance at the Cardiff City Stadiums so, despite the fact these two sides scored nine times between them on Thursday, we cannot foresee a high-scoring affair.
Three of the last four encounters between the pair have ended 1-0 while, in total, their ten meetings have witnessed a measly 19 goals, five of which (26%) came in one game at the Millennium Stadium 20 years ago.
Both were victorious in the play-offs en route to Qatar 2022, with Poland beating Sweden 2-0 in their final in Chorzów, while Wales beat Ukraine 1-0.
Since the play-offs became single-leg affairs, the seven finals have witnessed a combined 14 goals, an average of a goal every 49 minutes, given that two of them went two extra time.
In terms of cards, we’re forecasting a busy night’s work for referee Slavko Vinčić from Slovenia.
Poland have accumulated 18 yellow cards across their last eight qualifiers, while Wales have been shown 16 cautions and two sendings off during their last seven qualifiers, picking up three yellows against Finland.
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