Sutton’s Acca: 37/1 EFL Bet for Saturday 21st January

EFL pundit Gab Sutton picks his best bets for Saturday’s action – he sees value in a 29/10 shot in League Two…

EFL Football Tips

37/1 Sutton's Acca for Saturday

Gab has five EFL picks on Saturday

Swansea to win at QPR – 17/10

Swansea were helped at Sunderland, in one sense at least, by a moment of stupidity from Luke O’Nien, who was sent off for a two-footed lunge on Oli Cooper to make the game ten against 11 for 72 minutes.

The Swans still had to beat what was in front of them, though, and they took full advantage of their numerical superiority, winning 3-1 with what was in the end a very controlled performance.

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It helps having the extra space, of course, yet Harry Darling showed why he’s seen by some as the Championship Thomas Vermaelen, with the 6′2″ centre-back looking as confident driving forward and starting off moves, as he is with the basics of defending.

Matt Grimes has gone from a 7/10 in previous seasons to an 8/10 in this one, with the skipper’s open play deliveries becoming even more incisive.

Cooper, meanwhile, is on the verge of becoming one of the most agile, elusive creators the second-tier has to offer. Swansea have won two of their last three league games, the other being a narrow defeat to runaway leaders Burnley which they came very close to getting something out of, so there’s every reason to side with Martin’s men.

Plymouth to beat Cheltenham – 1/2

It doesn’t get any easier for Cheltenham.

It was hard not to feel for the Robins when facing the quality of a Derby starting XI that have all played Championship football in the previous two seasons, and losing to a belting strike from Max Bird that nobody could have done much about.

And yet, the fixture list lends Wade Elliott’s side no let-up, because next on the agenda is a trip to leaders Plymouth Argyle, followed by the visit of automatic promotion contenders Ipswich on Tuesday.

Town will have to attack both battles without key midfielders Liam Sercombe, one of the few in the squad to possess vast EFL experience, who got injured last time out and won’t be back until early February.

This trip to Devon isn’t a write-off – Elliott’s side went to Ipswich in November with a makeshift squad and ground out a point – but adding to their tally of 28 is a big ask, seeing as the club also wants to add a defender and a striker but anyone who comes in is unlikely to start.

Argyle maintained a seven-point gap to third-placed Ipswich last week by drawing at Portman Road, thanks to Bali Mumba’s injury-time leveller.

Steven Schumacher’s side look likely to retain their star wing-back, on loan from Norwich, while another key loanee, Finn Azaz, is back from injury.

The former Cheltenham League Two title-winner came on for James Wilson last time out to facilitate a switch from a back-three system to a back-four, operating with Tyreik Wright behind strikers Ben Waine and Sam Cosgrove.

Sheffield Wednesday to beat Fleetwood – 2/5

Fleetwood will feel hard done by to lose 2-1 to Oxford last weekend, having had comfortably the better of the first half. Alas, one or two moments of weak defending proved their undoing, and Scott Brown’s side will need to be far more vigilant for their trip to Hillsborough

Danny Andrew was sold a dummy far too easily by Kyle Joseph, Josh Earl was tentative in his attempts to stop the forward, while more could have been asked from midfielder Lewis Warrington and wide man Cian Hayes in terms of covering bases.

That might have been an individual moment that decided the course of the game, but Oxford were clinical and there is no reason to think title favourites Sheffield Wednesday – with even bigger resources, an even better squad on paper and having scored 15 more league goals – won’t be.

The Owls won 1-0 at Wycombe last week thanks to a blaster from Will Vaulks, the route through which they were victorious at Port Vale by the same scoreline in November, but they have other means of carving opponents open, even without Barry Bannan.

Wimbledon to win at Newport – 29/10

Wimbledon are having a positive season, even if they miss out on the Play-Offs.

It took Johnnie Jackson a few months but he’s now lifted the cloud that hung over Plough Lane after last season’s relegation with a whimper, and the Dons now look on the right track under a talented young manager.

The Londoners have made big strides off the pitch, too, with the appointments of Danny Macklin as Managing Director and Craig Cope as Head of Football Operations, which should streamline their internal processes.

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Jackson’s side have had a slight setback this month with key loanees Ryley Towler, Paris Maghoma and Nathan Young-Coombes recalled, but the loan signings they’ve brought in, Sam Pearson from Bristol City and Armani Little from Forest Green, are more likely to be retained.

With Ali Al-Hammadi arriving from Wycombe and fellow striker Zach Robinson recalled from his loan spell at Dundee, the rest of the season is partly about making the best of their top seven charge, and partly about building something for a more sustained tilt at promotion next season.

With one defeat in their last 13, combined with the emergence of talents like Huseyin Biler and Jack Currie, the Dons should defeat a Newport side languishing in 18th.

After an initial lift under Graham Coughlan, the Exiles are now winless in six, hoping Port Vale recruit Harry Charsley can help them arrest the slide.

Sutton to beat Crawley – 7/10

Culture is everything, best epitomized by these two clubs.

On paper, Crawley have a far higher value squad than Sutton, including last season’s top goalscorer in League Two, Dom Telford, who bagged a brace in the 2-2 draw at Newport last time out.

And yet, the Red Devils find themselves 14 points and seven places behind their hosts – albeit with three games in hand – just three points above the drop zone.

On the one hand, Sutton have managerial stability: Paul Doswell had 11 years at the helm and left of his own accord while his replacement, Matt Gray, has had four years in charge and could easily do a John Coleman or Gareth Ainsworth.

The U’s board don’t give their managers much leeway in terms of budget – those accountants look after every penny – but they do give managers the time and support they need to create an outstanding working culture.

That’s the case at Gander Green Lane, where Gray recruits excellent characters which, combined with formational continuity and a modest but engaged support, allows the South Londoners to perform well above their budgetary rank.

Sutton had half their squad absent through injury in the first half of the season, but form has picked up since the likes of Ben Goodliffe, Ali Smith and Harry Beautyman returned, with Gray’s side accruing 10 points from the last 15 available.

The Amber & Chocolates are 14th but only four points off the Play-Offs, albeit having played two more games than some of their divisional competitors, and have a real opportunity to close that gap.

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Swansea to win at QPR – 17/10
Plymouth to beat Cheltenham – 1/2
Sheffield Wednesday to beat Fleetwood – 2/5
Wimbledon to win at Newport – 29/10
Sutton to beat Crawley – 7/10
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