Sutton’s Acca: 6/1 EFL Bet

It’s crunch point of the season and EFL pundit Gab Sutton picks his fivefold for the weekend’s action

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Burnley to beat QPR – 1/3

Burnley have been somewhat undercooked since they mathematically clinched promotion, drawing at relegation candidates Reading and Rotherham.

Vincent Kompany has rotated heavily, as the Belgian looks to assess who he can rely upon for the rigours of the Premier League next season.

Those results do, at least, allow the Clarets to secure the title in front of their home fans, as they host a woefully out-of-form QPR side.

It seems hard to believe, but the Rs were top of the league back in October, having taken 30 points from their first 16, but they’ve since taken a paltry 14 from 27, finding themselves a point outside the drop zone – and only because of Reading’s six-point deduction.

Gareth Ainsworth’s side produced a spirited performance against Norwich to earn a point, setting up a three-game season in which they must finish above one of Reading, Huddersfield, Cardiff and Rotherham to avoid the drop.

QPR might be able to produce a competitive first half, but Burnley’s depth in reserve could be a huge factor: at Rotherham last time out, they had the luxury of bringing on the skilful, agile Manuel Benson, who curled a delightful effort in the far corner and looks set to thrive in the Premier League.

Even a rotated Burnley side should finish their mission on Saturday.

Millwall to win at Wigan – 19/20

Millwall go into these crucial final three games out of form, with just one win in six for Gary Rowett’s side, who failed to score in the other five of those encounters.

It wasn’t for want of trying, though, in the midweek defeat to his old club Birmingham, especially in the second half.

Rowett admitted his side didn’t do enough in the first half, but after a couple of adjustments the Lions forced the issue and it was only a combination of good opposition goalkeeping and wasteful finishing that kept his side out.

Millwall have the option to rotate the wide options, with Romain Esse and Duncan Watmore options for Rowett to bring in, and with one or two alterations, they should get back to winning ways.

Wigan are battling under Shaun Maloney, and won 1-0 at Stoke last time out, but that was just their second victory in 13 league games, as such they find themselves seven points adrift.

If Zian Flemming and Tom Bradshaw play as they’re capable, Millwall should get the win they need to boost their top six chances.

Bolton to beat Shrewsbury – 1/2

With Play-Off rivals Peterborough facing the unenviable challenge of a relentless Ipswich side, Bolton could have a great opportunity to give themselves an advantage going into their final three games.

If the Trotters win and Posh fail to do so, then victory over strugglers Accrington Stanley on Tuesday would put them four or five points clear of their top six rivals going into the closing two games, therefore needing to beat one of Fleetwood or Bristol Rovers to guarantee an extended campaign.

Rarely is football as simple as that, but it’s possible Ian Evatt’s side can really put themselves in the driving seat this afternoon.

Wanderers couldn’t get the victory they wanted at Burton in midweek, but the performance was described as the best since last month’s 4-0 EFL Trophy Final thrashing of Plymouth Argyle.

With the options Bolton have up top, any conversion issues are unlikely to persist, and they’re playing Shrewsbury at a stage where they’ve taken one point from the last 18 available, shipping 16 goals in six.

Leyton Orient to beat Crewe – 2/5

Leyton Orient mathematically rubber-stamped promotion on Tuesday night, even in a 2-0 defeat at Gillingham as defender Omar Beckles was dismissed after a dominant opening quarter of an hour.

Next on the agenda for the runaway leaders is to secure top spot, and the title is theirs if they win and Stevenage fail to do so at Mansfield.

It would certainly be poetic if the O’s were to finish the job on Saturday, because the fixture comes six years to the day after the club lost it’s EFL status with a 3-0 defeat at Crewe in 2017.

Richie Wellens has done an astonishing job at Brisbane Road, and now it’s a case of balancing the objective of finishing the season strongly and making sure they claim their crown, whilst also giving fringe players opportunities to prove they deserve a chance in League One.

Orient have a high-potential striker, for example, in Dan Nkrumah, who has attracted Championship interest from Middlesbrough and others, and the teenager will be hoping to get a look-in across the remaining games.

Crewe, meanwhile, want to finish 2022-23 well to build confidence for next season under Lee Bell, as the next generation of academy talent gets closer to being ready for regular first-team action.

Youngster Joel Tabiner has impressed, with the Alex on a run of three wins in four league games – but they can be vulnerable, too, as they showed in the 4-0 loss at Colchester.

Stockport to beat Rochdale – 1/3

102 years of Football League history are, sadly, about to come to an end for Rochdale.

Ethan Ebanks-Landell’s injury-time equalizer against Tranmere in midweek means Dale are not yet down mathematically, but the gap to 22nd-placed Crawley is still eight points with three games to play.

Jim McNulty’s side, therefore, need to win all three of their remaining games, hope Crawley take no more than one more point, and Hartlepool, no more than four.

If Rochdale only needed maximum points from Sutton and Harrogate, the job would still look realistic, but they’ve also got to win at Stockport, who have only been beaten twice at home since the opening day.

County are massively underperforming based on their shot data, which hints at conversion issues: target man Kyle Wootton has been missed and will be out for the rest of their league season (although could be back for the possible Play-Offs), while Paddy Madden has not been quite as ruthless in front of goal in League Two as he was in the National League.

With Ryan Croasdale’s industry and Will Collar’s boundless energy and craft, though, the Hatters should have a real stranglehold in midfield, and with attacking wing-backs, will create a plethora of chances.

With the volume of chances they are likely to create against the strugglers, it’s plausible that they could afford to be somewhat wasteful and still win by a couple of goals.

Plus, Stockport have some antipathy for Rochdale and the home fans may relish the opportunity to send them down.

PaddyPower Acca

Burnley to beat QPR – 1/3
Millwall to win at Wigan – 19/20
Bolton to beat Shrewsbury – 1/2
Leyton Orient to beat Crewe – 2/5
Stockport to beat Rochdale – 1/3

£10 bet returns £72.80!

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