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The next US Presidential Election is scheduled for Tuesday 5th November 2024 and, as has been the case for many months now, there is still precious little between current president Joe Biden and his immediate predecessor, Donald Trump, in the betting.
As things stand, Biden can be backed at odds of 6/5 with Unibet to retain the presidency, while Trump is also offered at 6/5 with BetVictor to return to the White House.
Age could be a significant factor in this election. Biden will be 82 a couple of weeks after the election, and it must be said that he has looked his age on a number of occasions during his presidency. He has been prone to several gaffes and can appear lost and confused at times. However, Trump himself is 78 in June. He’s never been the most eloquent of speakers, but there have also been plenty of questions raised as to his own mental acuity of late.
In truth, neither candidate is likely to win over too many undecided votes based on their public appearances over the coming months. Any TV debates between the pair could potentially have a major bearing on the outcome, although whether either camp would be prepared to take such a gamble under the circumstances has to be doubted.
The ongoing court cases against Trump adds a further degree of uncertainty. Will the MAGA millions continue to back him, whatever comes out in court, or will the inevitable deluge of negative stories finally see all but the most hardcore Trump supporters lose enthusiasm and impact his voter turnout?
Biden could also benefit as the incumbent, which usually provides increased media exposure, albeit that’s not always the case with an opponent like Trump.
The US economy is currently strong on most levels, which should bode well for Biden. Unemployment is low and GDP has been going up faster than predicted. In any ordinary election campaign, the nation’s economic performance would be the biggest factor for most voters. Those rules no longer seem to apply in the US though, with partisan hostility between the two parties and their supporters often taking precedence.
Other potential issues include Biden’s continued support for Israel, which could cost him some votes (although these are highly unlikely to switch to Trump). The new Title IX rules which prohibits discrimination on the basis of sex in any education program or activity that receives federal financial assistance is another issue that could impact how some decide to vote.
With a candidate as polarising as Trump, there are relatively few “undecided” voters for the parties to target in the months ahead. The focus for both parties will therefore be in ensuring that they do everything in their powers to get their core voters out on election day.
As an outsider looking in, it’s difficult to see how Trump could win if the court cases go against him. However, what would almost certainly derail the campaign of any other candidate might not apply to Trump. Negative news certainly hasn’t had a significant downside on his popularity among his base previously.
Even so, Biden looks to have a slight edge as things stand and could be worth a punt at 6/5 with Unibet. As the saying goes, a week is a long time in politics, and you can guarantee that there will be plenty of stories before 5th November that could yet have a bearing on the eventual outcome.
* Betting odds correct at the time of publication. All odds are subject to changes.
