Chelsea vs Leeds FA Cup Semi-Final Betting Tips, Prediction & Best Bets
Chelsea seem to be in a perpetual state of chaos as the newly managerless Blues gear up to face a Leeds side chasing their first FA Cup final appearance in 53 years in today’s semi-final at Wembley.
Chelsea are once again on the hunt for a new manager having ended Liam Rosenior’s reign after just 106 days at the helm.
The reaction to his sacking by betting sites has been to shorten Chelsea’s price to win this repeat of the infamous 1970 FA Cup final, with the Londoners as short as even-money with some bookies.
That price is unlikely to appeal to anyone who has watched Chelsea during their run of seven defeats in eight games, or those who have witnessed Leeds’ recent performances as they’ve pulled themselves away from the Premier League relegation zone.
All the signs point to a Leeds upset. And yet, we’ve seen this story play out at Chelsea before, the Blues emerging from the chaos clutching a trophy.
Chelsea vs Leeds Tips
We’ve picked out three betting tips for the game at Wembley, which includes a 12/1 bet builder.
Tip 1: Chelsea to win & under 3.5 goals
Daniel Farke’s decision to change shape midway through the season has turned out to be the making of Leeds, with the move to a 3-5-2 leading to them reaching the magical 40-point mark in the league and their best FA Cup run since 1987.
The first side to fall victim to the Whites after their formation shift was Chelsea, who slumped to a 3-1 defeat at Elland Road in December.
Leeds have played 24 games since then and have lost only four times in a run that includes a 2-2 draw with the Blues at Stamford Bridge.
They’ve shown a never-say-die attitude in the second half of the campaign, most recently snatching a 2-2 draw at Bournemouth.
If Chelsea could, they’d no doubt try to buy some of Leeds’ mettle following their lacklustre defeat to Brighton in midweek.
That loss to the Seagulls made it five top-flight losses on the bounce without scoring - the first time that’s happened since 1912 - and interim head coach Calum McFarlane has a job on his hands to turn Chelsea into a functioning unit again.
He got a tune out of them in the two-game caretaker spell he had between Enzo Maresca and Rosenior, securing a 1-1 draw at Manchester City, while they played well in defeat at Fulham.
He should get Joao Pedro and Cole Palmer back from injury for this game, adding to a talented team that might well respond to the whiff of silverware that comes with playing in a semi-final.
And while it might take a while to turn the Blues into consistent performers, McFarlane has enough match-winners in his squad to win a one-off game.
Leeds won’t make it easy and Chelsea’s recent struggles in front of goal suggest it will be a low-scoring semi-final, but it would be just like the Blues to emerge from a crisis with a place in the FA Cup final.
Tip 2: Enzo Fernandez anytime goalscorer
During McFarlane’s previous spell in charge, he gave Enzo Fernandez more license to get forward, resulting in the Argentine scoring in the 1-1 draw at Manchester City.
He had a team-best three shots that day in a side that also included Palmer and Joao Pedro. Palmer was pushed out wide on that occasion and Fernandez didn’t need to work back as much with Moises Caicedo and Andrey Santos deployed as holding midfielders.
One game is far too small a sample size, but McFarlane is expected to send out a similar side and Fernandez does have 12 goals to his name across all competitions this season.
The Argentine let fly regularly against Leeds in the league meeting, chalking up three shots in each game, and 4/1 to score anytime on football betting sites looks generous.
Tip 3: Over 3.5 total cards, Joao Pedro to score or assist & Pascal Struijk over 0.5 shots on target
These two have had some famous showdowns over the years, none more so than the 1970 FA Cup final. To say it was bad-tempered would be an understatement, and when Michael Oliver reofficiated the game in 2020, he said he’d have shown 11 red cards.
This game won’t be a patch on that one, although Chelsea have received nine red cards this season, second only to Wigan (10) in the football league pyramid.
Jarred Gillett will be in charge today and he averages just over 3.5 cards per Premier League game, which is a good baseline for the first leg of our bet builder.
Joao Pedro is expected to return to the starting line-up having missed Chelsea’s last two games and may add to the goal he got against Leeds the last time the sides met.
The Brazilian had seven shots on goal that day, a season high, and if Leeds don’t do a better job containing a striker who has 28 goal involvements (19 goals, 9 assists) this season, he could hurt them.
A look through Leeds’ shot stats this year shows Pascal Struijk has had the fourth most attempts on goal for the Whites in the league, and the Dutchman may have some joy from set pieces on Sunday.
Chelsea have struggled defensively from aerial situations recently and Struijk heads to Wembley having managed at least one effort on goal in four of his last five appearances.
Chelsea vs Leeds Odds
Where to watch Chelsea vs Leeds
TV Channel
The match is being broadcast live on TNT Sports 1 in the UK, which is part of the TNT Sports package.
Live stream information
Supporters in the UK can watch Chelsea vs Leeds United via the TNT Sports app or through HBO Max, which provides live streaming access to TNT Sports channels.
Chelsea vs Leeds Match Information
Kick-Off Time
The Chelsea vs Leeds United FA Cup semi-final is scheduled to kick off at 3:00pm.
Fixture Date
This fixture takes place on Sunday, 26th April 2026, forming part of the FA Cup semi-final weekend.
Stadium
The match is being played at Wembley Stadium, which is the neutral venue traditionally used for FA Cup semi-finals.
More Football Tips
Find more football betting tips and predictions for this weekend's action at Free Bets.
