Next Prime Minister Odds: Who Tops Market as Labour Rivals Circle Starmer?
Joshua Kerr 
Dominic Celica
With growing unrest in the Labour Party and speculation over a reshuffle, betting sites have opened fresh markets on Keir Starmer’s leadership and who could be the next Chancellor.
Here’s your complete guide to the names making waves in Westminster.
Next Prime Minister Odds
Here's a breakdown of the current potential Labour replacements to succeed Keir Starmer at No.10 Downing Street:
| Name | Odds | Implied Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Angela Rayner | 6/1 | 14.3% |
| Wes Streeting | 7/1 | 12.5% |
| Yvette Cooper | 7/1 | 12.5% |
| Chris Bryant | 33/1 | 2.9% |
| Hillary Benn | 33/1 | 2.9% |
| Rachel Reeves | 33/1 | 2.9% |
Odds correct as of Tuesday, 8th July, 12:00pm
Keir Starmer Exit Date Odds
Here's a breakdown of the current potential exit sates for Sir Keir Starmer:
| Exit Date | Odds | Implied Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 2029 or later | 15/8 | 34.8% |
| 2026 | 5/2 | 28.6% |
| 2025 | 7/2 | 22.2% |
| 2028 | 5/1 | 16.7% |
| 2027 | 11/2 | 15.4% |
Odds correct as of Tuesday, 8th July, 12:00pm
Labour Turmoil Triggers Odds Shake-Up Ahead of UK Election
Angela Rayner remains the strongest contender to succeed Keir Starmer, currently priced at 6/1, implying a 38.1% possibility.
Labour figures Wes Streeting and Yvette Cooper follow closely behind at 7/1 (12.5%), both seen as potential successors to Keir Starmer should internal unrest continue to bubble over.
According to the latest prices, Starmer is still favourite to remain leader until 2029 or later (6/4, 40%), but growing traction around a 2025 or 2026 exit (both under 5/1) suggests many are bracing for the possibility of a rocky first term in office.
While Starmer remains on track to lead a Labour government, the odds suggest his grip could loosen earlier than expected—especially if internal tensions continue to escalate post-election.
Next Cabinet Minister to Leave:
Following the backlash of last week's PMQs, the betting market has shifted on the next cabinet minister to leave, as of 4pm on Wednesday, 2nd July.
| Next Cabinet Minister to Leave | Odds | Implied Probability |
| Rachel Reeves | 5/4 | 44.4% |
| Liz Kendall | 5/1 | 16.7% |
| Lisa Nandy | 11/2 | 15.4% |
| Heidi Alexander | 8/1 | 11.1% |
| Shabana Mahmood | 8/1 | 11.1% |
| Bar | 14/1 | 6.7% |
Latest Chancellor Odds: Market Eyes New Faces
It's not been the easiest of week's for Rachel Reeves. With billions needing to be found following the concessions given on the Welfare Bill, an emotional appearance at PMQ's on Wednesday spooked markets.
While Number 10 has given her backing since, here's a breakdown of the leading contenders for the next Chancellor of the Exchequer should she depart:
Name | Odds | Implied Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Pat McFadden | 2/1 | 33.3% |
| Darren Jones | 4/1 | 20.0% |
| Jonathan Reynolds | 8/1 | 11.1% |
| Wes Streeting | 8/1 | 11.1% |
| Torsten Bell | 8/1 | 11.1% |
| Douglas Alexander | 10/1 | 9.1% |
| Ellie Reeves | 12/1 | 7.7% |
| Yvette Cooper | 14/1 | 6.7% |
| Liz Kendall | 16/1 | 5.9% |
| Others | 20/1+ | ≤4.8% |
Odds correct as of Wednesday, 2nd July, 12:00pmÂ
Politics on Free Bets
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From Prime Ministerial tenure to Cabinet shakeups, the latest odds offer a fascinating lens into UK politics. Stay tuned for the latest betting insights, political odds comparisons, and expert analysis as election momentum builds.
