Latest Politics Odds: Who's Leading the UK's Top Political Markets?
Joshua Kerr 
Dominic Celica
With growing unrest in the Labour Party and speculation over a reshuffle, betting sites have opened fresh markets on Keir Starmer’s leadership and who could be the next Chancellor.
Here’s your complete guide to the names making waves in Westminster.
Next Prime Minister Odds
Here's a breakdown of the current potential Labour replacements to succeed Keir Starmer at No.10 Downing Street:
| Name | Odds | Implied Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Wes Streeting | 4/1 | 20% |
| Angela Rayner | 6/1 | 14.3% |
| Shabana Mahmood | 7/1 | 12.5% |
| Andy Burnham | 7/1 | 12.5% |
| Ed Miliband | 8/1 | 11.1% |
| Yvette Cooper | 12/1 | 7.7% |
| Darren Jones | 14/1 | 6.7% |
| David Lammy | 16/1 | 5.9% |
| Bridget Phillipson | 16/1 | 5.9% |
| Lucy Powell | 16/1 | 5.9% |
| Pat McFadden | 20/1 | 4.8% |
| Peter Kyle | 25/1 | 3.8% |
| John Heatley | 25/1 | 3.8% |
| Sadiq Khan | 25/1 | 3.8% |
| Sarah Jones | 33/1 | 2.9% |
| Torsten Bell | 33/1 | 2.9% |
| Josh Simons | 33/1 | 2.9% |
| Georgia Gould | 33/1 | 2.9% |
| Jonathan Reynolds | 33/1 | 2.9% |
| Rachel Reeves | 33/1 | 2.9% |
| Christian Wakeford | 33/1 | 2.9% |
| Chris Bryant | 33/1 | 2.9% |
| Rebecca Long-Bailey | 33/1 | 2.9% |
Odds correct as of Monday, 17th November, 12pm.
Keir Starmer Exit Date Odds
Here's a breakdown of the current potential exit dates for Sir Keir Starmer:
| Exit Date | Odds | Implied Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 8/11 | 57.9% |
| 2027 | 9/2 | 18.2% |
| 2029 or later | 5/1 | 16.7% |
| 2028 | 13/2 | 13.3% |
| 2025 | 12/1 | 7.7% |
Odds correct as of Monday, 17th November, 12pm.
Next General Election - Most Seats
Here's a breakdown of the current General Election forecast for Most Seats:
| Party | Odds | Implied Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Reform | 4/5 | 55.6% |
| Labour | 5/2 | 28.6% |
| Conservatives | 11/2 | 15.4% |
| Greens | 16/1 | 5.9% |
| Lib Dems | 50/1 | 2% |
| Advance UK | 100/1 | 1% |
| Your Party (Sultana/Corbyn Party) | 100/1 | 1% |
Odds correct as of Monday, 17th November, 12pm.
General Election - Result
Here's a breakdown of the forecast for the next General Election:
| Party | Odds | Implied Probability |
|---|---|---|
| No Overall Majority/Hung Parliament | 4/5 | 55.6% |
| Reform Majority | 2/1 | 33.3% |
| Labour Majority | 5/1 | 16.7% |
| Conservatives Majority | 14/1 | 6.7% |
| Green Majority | 50/1 | 2% |
| Lib Dems Majority | 150/1 | 0.7% |
| Your Party (Sultana/Corbyn Party) Majority | 150/1 | 0.7% |
| Advance UK Majority | 250/1 | 0.4% |
Odds correct as of Monday, 17th November, 12pm.
Latest Chancellor Odds - Market Eyes New Faces
Here's a breakdown of the current potential permanent Labour replacements to succeed Rachel Reeves as Chancellor of the Exchequer:
Name | Odds | Implied Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Pat McFadden | EVENS | 50% |
| Torsten Bell | 10/3 | 23.1% |
| Darren Jones | 6/1 | 14.3% |
| Wes Streeting | 12/1 | 7.7% |
| Shabana Mahmood | 14/1 | 6.7% |
| John Healey | 16/1 | 5.9% |
| Yvette Cooper | 16/1 | 5.9% |
| Jonathan Reynolds | 16/1 | 5.9% |
| Ellie Reeves | 16/1 | 5.9% |
| Douglas Alexander | 20/1 | 4.8% |
| Others | 20/1+ | ≤4.8% |
Odds correct as of Monday, 17th November, 12pm.
Rachel Reeves Exit Date
Here's a breakdown of the current potential exit dates for Rachel Reeves:
| Exit Date | Odds | Implied Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 4/6 | 60% |
| 2025 | 6/4 | 40% |
| 2027 | 12/1 | 7.7% |
| 2028 | 16/1 | 5.9% |
| 2029 or later | 20/1 | 4.8% |
Odds correct as of Monday, 17th November, 12pm.
Politics on Free Bets
Be sure to check back regularly, as we've got full coverage of all things surrounding the current political landscape.
From Prime Ministerial tenure to Cabinet shakeups, the latest odds offer a fascinating lens into UK politics. Stay tuned for the latest betting insights, political odds comparisons, and expert analysis as election momentum builds.
