Next Prime Minister Odds: Who Tops Market as Labour Rivals Circle Starmer?
Joshua Kerr 
With growing unrest in the Labour Party and speculation over a reshuffle, betting sites have opened fresh markets on Keir Starmer’s leadership and who could be the next Chancellor.
Here’s your complete guide to the names making waves in Westminster.
Next Prime Minister Odds
Here's a breakdown of the current potential replacements to succeed Keir Starmer at No.10 Downing Street, with the latest odds from the top betting sites.
| Name | Odds | Implied Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Wes Streeting | 7/1 | 12.5% |
| Yvette Cooper | 7/1 | 12.5% |
| Angela Rayner | 8/1 | 11.1% |
| Chris Bryant | 33/1 | 2.9% |
| Hillary Benn | 33/1 | 2.9% |
Odds correct as of Monday, 30th June, 12:00pm - courtesy of talkSPORT BET
Keir Starmer Exit Date Odds
Here's a breakdown of the current potential exit sates for Sir Keir Starmer, with the latest odds and probabilities from the top betting sites.
| Exit Date | Odds | Implied Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 2029 or later | 6/4 | 40.0% |
| 2026 | 7/2 | 22.2% |
| 2028 | 9/2 | 18.2% |
| 2025 | 9/2 | 18.2% |
| 2027 | 5/1 | 16.7% |
Odds correct as of Monday, 30th June, 12:00pm - courtesy of talkSPORT BET
Labour Turmoil Triggers Odds Shake-Up Ahead of UK Election
Labour figures Wes Streeting and Yvette Cooper follow closely behind at 7/1 (12.5%), both seen as potential successors to Keir Starmer should internal unrest continue to bubble over.
Angela Rayner (8/1) also remains a strong contender, though her chances appear to be softening amid ongoing scrutiny and factional divides within the party.
According to the latest prices, Starmer is still favourite to remain leader until 2029 or later (6/4, 40%), but growing traction around a 2025 or 2026 exit (both under 5/1) suggests many are bracing for the possibility of a rocky first term in office.
While Starmer remains on track to lead a Labour government, the odds suggest his grip could loosen earlier than expected—especially if internal tensions continue to escalate post-election.
Latest Chancellor Odds: Market Eyes New Faces
Here's a breakdown of the leading contenders for the next Chancellor of the Exchequer, with the latest odds from the top betting sites.
Name | Odds | Implied Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Pat McFadden | 2/1 | 33.3% |
| Darren Jones | 4/1 | 20.0% |
| Jonathan Reynolds | 8/1 | 11.1% |
| Wes Streeting | 8/1 | 11.1% |
| Torsten Bell | 8/1 | 11.1% |
| Douglas Alexander | 10/1 | 9.1% |
| Ellie Reeves | 12/1 | 7.7% |
| Yvette Cooper | 14/1 | 6.7% |
| Liz Kendall | 16/1 | 5.9% |
| Others | 20/1+ | ≤4.8% |
Odds correct as of Monday, 30th June, 12:00pm - courtesy of talkSPORT BET
Rachel Reeves
The betting market for the next Chancellor of the Exchequer reveals no clear frontrunner, signalling an open race should Labour form the next government. While Pat McFadden tops the list at 2/1 (33.3%), a competitive field follows closely behind, highlighting growing uncertainty around economic leadership.
Notably absent from the top tier is Shadow Chancellor Rachel Reeves, whose previous position as Starmer’s economic pillar is now under increased scrutiny. Despite her high-profile role, bookmakers and punters alike appear cautious—potentially pricing in the risk of a reshuffle amid growing policy backlash and internal tension.
Why the Shift?
This movement in the markets reflects deeper questions facing Labour. The backlash over welfare reform has exposed ideological divisions between the leadership and its grassroots base, fuelling speculation that internal instability could reshape the government’s front bench before long.
Whether Labour opts for unity or reshaping its team post-election, those with keen on the market are preparing for rapid change—and that’s being reflected across both leadership and Cabinet odds.
Politics on Free Bets
Be sure to check back regularly, as we've got full coverage of all things surrounding the current political landscape.
From Prime Ministerial tenure to Cabinet shakeups, the latest odds offer a fascinating lens into UK politics. Stay tuned for the latest betting insights, political odds comparisons, and expert analysis as election momentum builds.
