Latest Politics Odds: Who's Leading the UK's Top Political Markets?
Joshua Kerr 
Dominic Celica
With growing unrest in the Labour Party and speculation over a reshuffle, betting sites have opened fresh markets on Keir Starmer’s leadership and who could be the next Chancellor.
Here’s your complete guide to the names making waves in Westminster.
Next Prime Minister Odds
Here's a breakdown of the current potential Labour replacements to succeed Keir Starmer at No.10 Downing Street:
| Name | Odds | Implied Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Andy Burnham | 3/1 | 25% |
| Wes Streeting | 11/2 | 15.4% |
| Shabana Mahmood | 9/1 | 10% |
| Yvette Cooper | 10/1 | 9.1% |
| Darren Jones | 14/1 | 6.7% |
| Angela Rayner | 14/1 | 6.7% |
| David Lammy | 16/1 | 5.9% |
| Bridget Phillipson | 16/1 | 5.9% |
| Lucy Powell | 16/1 | 5.9% |
| Pat McFadden | 20/1 | 4.8% |
| Rachel Reeves | 20/1 | 4.8% |
| John Heatley | 20/1 | 4.8% |
| Sadiq Khan | 20/1 | 4.8% |
| Ed Milliband | 25/1 | 3.8% |
| Sarah Jones | 33/1 | 2.9% |
| Torsten Bell | 33/1 | 2.9% |
| Josh Simons | 33/1 | 2.9% |
| Georgia Gould | 33/1 | 2.9% |
| Peter Kyle | 33/1 | 2.9% |
| Christian Wakeford | 33/1 | 2.9% |
| Chris Bryant | 33/1 | 2.9% |
| Rebecca Long-Bailey | 33/1 | 2.9% |
| Lisa Nandy | 33/1 | 2.9% |
Odds correct as of Tuesday, 30th September 12:00pmÂ
Next Labour Deputy Leader
Here's a breakdown of the current potential permanent Labour replacements to succeed Angela Rayner as Deputy Prime Minister:
| Name | Odds | Implied Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Lucy Powell | 1/7 | 87.5% |
| Bridgette Phillipson | 5/1 | 16.7% |
Odds correct as of Tuesday, 30th September 12:00pmÂ
Keir Starmer Exit Date Odds
Here's a breakdown of the current potential exit dates for Sir Keir Starmer:
| Exit Date | Odds | Implied Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 5/4 | 44.4% |
| 2029 or later | 7/2 | 22.2% |
| 2027 | 4/1 | 20% |
| 2025 | 11/2 | 15.4% |
| 2028 | 6/1 | 14.3% |
Odds correct as of Tuesday, 30th September 12:00pmÂ
Next General Election - Most Seats
Here's a breakdown of the current General Election forecast for Most Seats:
| Party | Odds | Implied Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Reform | 4/5 | 55.6% |
| Labour | 7/2 | 22.2% |
| Conservatives | 6/1 | 14.3% |
| Lib Dems | 40/1 | 2.4% |
| Greens | 100/1 | 1% |
| Your Party (Sultana/Corbyn Party) | 100/1 | 1% |
Odds correct as of Tuesday, 30th September 12:00pmÂ
Latest Chancellor Odds - Market Eyes New Faces
Here's a breakdown of the current potential permanent Labour replacements to succeed Rachel Reeves as Chancellor of the Exchequer:
Name | Odds | Implied Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Pat McFadden | 10/11 | 52.4% |
| Torsten Bell | 7/2 | 22.2% |
| Darren Jones | 6/1 | 14.3% |
| Wes Streeting | 12/1 | 7.7% |
| Shabana Mahmood | 16/1 | 5.9% |
| Yvette Cooper | 16/1 | 5.9% |
| Jonathan Reynolds | 16/1 | 5.9% |
| Aneliesse Dodds | 20/1 | 4.8% |
| Douglas Alexander | 20/1 | 4.8% |
| Others | 20/1+ | ≤4.8% |
Odds correct as of Tuesday, 30th September 12:00pmÂ
Rachel Reeves Exit Date
Here's a breakdown of the current potential exit dates for Rachel Reeves:
| Exit Date | Odds | Implied Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 8/13 | 44.4% |
| 2025 | 4/1 | 20% |
| 2027 | 7/1 | 12.5% |
| 2029 or later | 8/1 | 11.1% |
| 2028 | 9/1 | 10% |
Odds correct as of Tuesday, 30th September 12:00pmÂ
Politics on Free Bets
Be sure to check back regularly, as we've got full coverage of all things surrounding the current political landscape.
From Prime Ministerial tenure to Cabinet shakeups, the latest odds offer a fascinating lens into UK politics. Stay tuned for the latest betting insights, political odds comparisons, and expert analysis as election momentum builds.
