Latest Politics Odds: Who's Leading the UK's Top Political Markets?
As 2026 begins to unravel, growing unrest continues within the Labour Party amid speculation over a reshuffle, and betting sites have opened fresh markets on Keir Starmer’s leadership, as well as who could succeed Rachel Reeves as the next Chancellor.
Here’s your complete guide to the names making waves in Westminster.
Next Prime Minister Odds
Here's a breakdown of the current potential Labour replacements to succeed Keir Starmer at No.10 Downing Street:
| Name | Odds | Implied Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Wes Streeting | 7/2 | 22.2% |
| Angela Rayner | 9/2 | 18.2% |
| Andy Burnham | 8/1 | 11.1% |
| Shabana Mahmood | 9/1 | 10% |
| Ed Miliband | 10/1 | 9.1% |
| Yvette Cooper | 16/1 | 5.9% |
| Lucy Powell | 20/1 | 4.8% |
| David Lammy | 25/1 | 3.8% |
| Darren Jones | 25/1 | 3.8% |
| Peter Kyle | 33/1 | 2.9% |
| John Heatley | 33/1 | 2.9% |
| Bridget Phillipson | 33/1 | 2.9% |
| Torsten Bell | 40/1 | 2.4% |
| Sadiq Kahn | 50/1 | 2% |
| Rachel Reeves | 50/1 | 2% |
Odds correct as of Monday, 5th January, 12pm.
Keir Starmer Exit Date Odds
Here's a breakdown of the current potential exit dates for Sir Keir Starmer:
| Exit Date | Odds | Implied Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 2027 or later | 5/4 | 44.4% |
| April - June 2026 | 9/4 | 30.8% |
| July - September 2026 | 4/1 | 20% |
| January - March 2026 | 7/1 | 12.5% |
| October - December 2026 | 12/1 | 7.7% |