James Bond Odds: Callum Turner Strengthens Grip As Jonathan Bailey Gains Momentum
Joshua Kerr 
Callum Turner has tightened his hold on the race to become the next James Bond, firming into a commanding 7/4 favourite (36.36% implied probability) as the market undergoes yet another major shake-up.
The latest prices show a significant reshuffle behind him, with Bridgerton and Wicked star, Jonathan Bailey, making the most eye-catching leap into 3/1 second favourite (25%), overtaking long-time contender Aaron Taylor-Johnson, now drifting to 7/2 (22.22%).
Meanwhile, Theo James, known for his leading role in Guy Ritchie’s popular action comedy The Gentlemen, and This City Is Ours star, James Nelson-Joyce, continue to build quiet momentum, while former heavyweight favourite Henry Cavill slips further down the board.
Turner Extends His Lead
British rising star Callum Turner continues his remarkable trajectory, shortening again to 7/4 (36.36%), the strongest position he has held in the market to date.
Turner’s rapid ascent, powered by acclaimed work in Masters of the Air and Fantastic Beasts, suggests increasing confidence that producers may favour a fresh, grounded talent capable of steering the franchise for the next decade.
His implied probability continues to grow, now making him the first candidate to climb above the 35% mark this year.
His fiancé, singer and songwriter, Dua Lipa, is currently priced as favourite (13/8, 38.1%) to follow in the footsteps of Adele, Sam Smith and Billy Eilish and land the theme song for the next Bond instalment.
Jonathan Bailey: The Big Mover
If Turner is the frontrunner, Jonathan Bailey is the week’s biggest mover. Now 3/1 (25.00%), Bailey leapfrogs several established contenders to claim the second spot outright.
This rise follows mounting industry chatter surrounding his versatility and screen presence, attributes seen as increasingly important for a modern Bond. His implied probability has jumped sharply, placing him firmly among the realistic contenders.
Taylor-Johnson Drifts as Momentum Slows
Once considered the imminent favourite, Aaron Taylor-Johnson continues to drift, now sitting at 7/2 (22.22%).
While still a strong candidate, the latest numbers reflect softening sentiment, with new voices emerging and enthusiasm shifting toward actors seen as offering a more compelling long-term vision for the franchise.
Theo James and James Nelson-Joyce Keep Climbing
Theo James (9/2, 18.18%) and James Nelson-Joyce (5/1, 16.67%) remain two of the most interesting mid-market movers.
James’ blend of action credentials and dramatic range keeps him firmly in the mix, while Nelson-Joyce, boosted by gritty recent performances, continues to exceed early-year expectations.
Both now sit above Henry Cavill in implied probability.
Henry Cavill Slips to Sixth Favourite
Henry Cavill, once the dominant choice among fans and bookmakers, slides further to 6/1 (14.29%).
His implied probability has more than halved from its highs earlier in the year, signalling a clear market pivot away from more traditional, big-name candidates.
Full Updated Bond Odds
| Name | Odds | Implied Probability |
| Callum Turner | 7/4 | 36.36% |
| Jonathan Bailey | 3/1 | 25.00% |
| Aaron Taylor-Johnson | 7/2 | 22.22% |
| Theo James | 9/2 | 18.18% |
| James Nelson-Joyce | 5/1 | 16.67% |
| Henry Cavill | 6/1 | 14.29% |
| Harris Dickinson | 16/1 | 5.88% |
| Jack Lowden | 16/1 | 5.88% |
| Tom Holland | 20/1 | 4.76% |
| James Norton | 20/1 | 4.76% |
| Aaron Pierre | 33/1 | 2.94% |
| Timothée Chalamet | 33/1 | 2.94% |
| Leo Woodall | 33/1 | 2.94% |
| Jacob Elordi | 33/1 | 2.94% |
| Rege-Jean Page | 33/1 | 2.94% |
| Josh O’Connor | 33/1 | 2.94% |
| Cillian Murphy | 33/1 | 2.94% |
| Richard Madden | 33/1 | 2.94% |
| Scott Rose-Marsh | 33/1 | 2.94% |
| Robert Pattinson | 33/1 | 2.94% |
| Jack O'Connell | 40/1 | 2.44% |
| Ncuti Gatwa | 50/1 | 1.96% |
| Louis Partridge | 50/1 | 1.96% |
| Fabien Frankel | 50/1 | 1.96% |
| Harry Lawtey | 50/1 | 1.96% |
| Finn Cole | 50/1 | 1.96% |
| Idris Elba | 50/1 | 1.96% |
Odds correct as of Wednesday, 19th November, 12pm.
The Longshots: Star Power Without Market Support
Tom Holland and James Norton (20/1, 4.76%) both continue to attract public backing, but their implied probabilities remain modest.
Rege-Jean Page, Cillian Murphy, Richard Madden (33/1, 2.94%) are all high-profile names, but little sign of real momentum in the latest market run.
Idris Elba (50/1, 1.96%), once a fan favourite, the odds now suggest bookmakers see the window firmly closed.
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