Next UK Prime Minister Odds: Wes Streeting Backed To Replace Keir Starmer
The Next UK Prime Minister odds have shifted dramatically at the betting sites over the last three weeks – and Wes Streeting's expected resignation is now driving the movement.
Reports today confirm Streeting plans to resign on Thursday and mount a formal leadership challenge, with The Times quoting an ally saying "He is going for it… He's going tomorrow."
That follows the worst set of local election results in Labour's recorded history on 7 May, the resignation of four junior ministers, and Catherine West's stalking-horse move to gather the 81 letters needed to trigger a contest.
With opposition parties piling on and more than 80 Labour MPs now publicly calling for Starmer to set out a timetable, the market has reacted sharply.
So if Starmer goes, who steps in?
Here at FreeBets.com, we've run through the five most likely candidates, their odds, and what the markets are telling us.
Next UK Prime Minister Odds
With Keir Starmer resignation odds proving popular with punters, Labour are facing the very real prospect of a leadership change before the summer recess.
Below, we assess five realistic candidates who could be next in line to take the keys to Downing Street.
| Candidate | Next UK Prime Minister Odds |
| Andy Burnham | 5/2 |
| Ed Miliband | 3/1 |
| Wes Streeting | 4/1 |
| Angela Rayner | 5/1 |
| Nigel Farage | 25/1 |
Odds correct as of Wednesday, 13 May, 4:30pm - courtesy of Ladbrokes
Andy Burnham
Andy Burnham heads the market for a reason.
The Greater Manchester Mayor has shortened from 11/1 to 5/2 over the last three weeks on the back of grassroots momentum, public backing from Angela Rayner, and growing noise about a Labour MP willing to vacate a safe seat to engineer a by-election that would return him to the Commons.
There is still one obvious risk - he is not currently an MP, and the constitutional convention that the Prime Minister sits in the Commons means his Westminster route has to be solved before he can stand.
But with members openly demanding a change of leadership and Burnham polling competitively with Nigel Farage in a way no other Labour figure does, the pressure to find him a seat is mounting by the day.
Our verdict: Burnham as the current market favourite is the right call. He is the only Labour figure who neutralises Farage with swing voters, and the parliamentary plumbing to get him into the Commons is now being actively planned. If a seat appears, he wins it.
Ed Miliband
Ed Miliband is the surprise mover of the week, into 3/1 from 6/1 and second-favourite across the market.
He tops Labour's internal favourability rankings among members, his energy brief and social-media reach have rebuilt his profile across the Mandelson scandal, and he is the cleanest soft-left option if the membership is allowed a full vote.
Crucially - and unlike Burnham - he is already a sitting MP for Doncaster North and can stand the moment a contest opens.
The drawbacks are familiar: he has previously ruled himself out, he still carries the 2015 election baggage, and the wider public perception of him as a leader has never fully recovered.
But money is talking, and the market move tells you a "draft Ed" campaign is now a live scenario rather than a hypothetical.
Our verdict: Miliband at 11/4 is the most interesting bet in the market right now. If Streeting fails to clear 81 nominations and Burnham can't find a seat in time, he is the candidate that members and MPs can both live with.
Wes Streeting
Wes Streeting is the candidate the news cycle is built around today.
The Health Secretary walked into Downing Street at 7:45am this morning for a 20-minute meeting with Sir Keir Starmer, then left without taking questions.
His allies have briefed both The Times and Bloomberg that he plans to resign on Thursday and launch a formal challenge - a move that, if confirmed, will trigger the most serious test of Starmer's leadership since the general election.
He has the strongest declared PLP backing of any candidate and the most polished media operation.
The concerns remain unchanged from April: a razor-thin majority in Ilford North, reservations on the Labour left, and lingering questions over his association with the now-disgraced Peter Mandelson.
If this goes to a full membership vote, he faces a tougher path than the headline price suggests.
Our verdict: A serious player at 4/1, and the obvious bet if you think the contest stays controlled at the nomination stage. If he resigns on Thursday as briefed, expect this price to shorten further before the weekend.
Angela Rayner
Angela Rayner has had a dramatic 12 months - and not for good reasons.
The former Deputy Prime Minister was forced out of cabinet after underpaying stamp duty on a property in Hove, losing the deputy premiership and the Housing brief at a stroke.
That should have ended her in the betting.
Instead, the back benches have given her exactly what we flagged in April: freedom to speak, and a clear left-flank platform now that members are openly demanding Labour pivot away from Starmer's centrism.
She has drifted from 5/2 favourite to 5/1 since cabinet exit and is reported to be quietly throwing her weight behind Burnham rather than running herself.
In any full-membership ballot, she remains one of the few candidates with genuine grassroots appeal.
Our verdict: Rayner is more likely to deliver Burnham the leadership than win it herself. The smart money says she swings in behind him and reclaims the Deputy slot under a new leader.
Nigel Farage
Nigel Farage's presence in this market is all about one scenario - Reform winning a general election outright, rather than anything tied to the Labour succession itself.
YouGov's 10–11 May voting intention puts Reform on 28%, an 11-point lead and the party's largest YouGov lead on record, with Labour slumping to joint third on 16% alongside the Greens.
Opinium has Starmer's net approval at –46, joint-lowest for any sitting PM - the polling case for Farage is stronger than at any point in his career.
The path to power, though, remains narrow.
A mid-Parliament Farage premiership requires either an early general election that Labour will fight hard to avoid or a constitutional scenario that has never been tested.
First-past-the-post is still brutal, and Reform has no governing record, while Farage is currently trying to deal with the fallout from his £5 million gift from a Crypto-billionaire.
Our verdict: If you believe Labour's collapse is structural rather than cyclical and the next election comes before this Parliament's natural end, Farage at 25/1 is the value play. A long-term hold for the realignment scenario.
