Alan Kelly’s Tips
Alan heads to the Cheltenham Festival on Wednesday for his best bet
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Alan Kelly's Tips - Cheltenham Festival Day Two
The BetMGM Queen Mother Champion Chase is the feature race on day two of the Cheltenham Festival, the ultimate test of speed and jumping due to get underway at 4:00pm.
Tuesday’s action will go some way to determining as to whether the forecast going description of good to soft proves to be correct.
1:20pm Cheltenham - King Rasko Grey
Only half a length separated the first three horses home in Leopardstown’s Tattersalls Ireland Novice Hurdle at the Dublin Racing Festival, my initial reaction after the race was that the third horse, Willie Mullins’ KING RASKO GREY, was the one to take out of the contest, especially when stepping-up from that trip of two miles.
The Galiway gelding was having just his second run over hurdles at the DRF, the first coming when only having to be pushed out in winning a Limerick maiden over the Christmas period. I expect the mount of Paul Townsend to come on plenty for last month’s run, especially over today’s trip of 2m 5f.
The Irish have won 10 of the last 12 renewals of the race, and being responsible for 13 of the 22 runners, another victory is more than likely. The home team have a live contender in Paul Nicholls’ Grade 1 Challow winner No Drama This End however, while at a double-figure price the chances of Nicky Henderson’s Act Of Innocence should not be underestimated.
Recommendation: King Rasko Grey - 13/2 with Coral
2:40pm Cheltenham - The Yellow Clay (Each-Way) & Kateira (Each-Way)
My two against the field for this ultra-competitive BetMGM Cup (Premier Handicap), formerly the Coral Cup, are Gordon Elliott’s top weight THE YELLOW CLAY (Each-Way), one of 15 Irish challengers plus the two reserves, and KATEIRA (Each-Way) from the Dan Skelton stable. The former has yet to recapture his form of 12 months ago when making The New Lion pull out all the stops in the Grade 1 Turners’ Novices’ Hurdle, most recently when finishing a well beaten 5th behind Teahupoo in the Grade 1 Christmas Hurdle at Leopardstown.
On the seven-year-old’s return to Prestbury Park, and on decent ground for the first time this season, I expect a much better effort from the son of Yeats on his handicap debut. Sporting cheekpieces for the first time and with the 5lb claim of jockey Michael Kenneally, Elliott has good claims of winning this valuable handicap for a fourth time. Like The Yellow Clay, Kateira is hard to fancy for such a competitive handicap based on her four runs since beating a below-par Golden Ace 28 lengths at Wetherby back in November.
However, with a similar profile to the stable’s 2023/24 winner Langer Dan, the nine-year-old daughter of Kayf Tara looks to have been primed for this race for some time, as current odds would suggest, and I anticipate a big run from Harry Skelton’s mount off her lowest mark since winning a Premier Handicap at Aintree’s Grand National meeting two years ago.
Recommendations: The Yellow Clay (Each-Way) - 17/2 with Unibet (6 places) & Kateira (Each-Way) - 8/1 with Unibet (6 places)
3:20pm Cheltenham - Final Orders (Each-Way)
The Irish look to have a stranglehold on this cross country chase, in particular runners from the stables of Gordon Elliott and Gavin Cromwell. The betting would suggest that Cromwell’s easy winner of 12 months ago, top weight Stumptown, is the stable’s number one in an effort to defy a 5lb higher mark on this occasion.
At a much bigger price, I am more interested in Stumptown’s stablemate FINAL ORDERS (Each-Way) in receipt of 15lb from the former. An impressive winner over today’s course and distance at Cheltenham’s December meeting, I thought the 10-year-old ran much better than his position of 5th would suggest when finishing 16 lengths behind Gordon Elliott’s Favori De Champdou at Prestbury Mark in January. Now 8lb better off with the Cullentra House market leader, I expect the selection to make the frame at the very least.
Recommendation: Final Orders (Each-Way) - 15/2 with bet365 (4 places)
4:00pm Cheltenham - Il Etait Temps (Nap)
The Willie Mullins-trained IL ETAIT TEMPS (Nap) has long been my idea of the most likely winner of this Queen Mother Champion Chase, and despite his fall 2 out when looking well held in Ascot’s Grade 1 Clarence House Chase on his most recent start two months ago, I fancy the grey son of Jukebox Jury to bounce back this afternoon.
While Jonbon ran out a comfortable winner at the Berkshire racecourse, the popular J P McManus-owned gelding was made to look very ordinary by Il Etait Temps in both the Celebration Chase at Sandown last spring, and again at the Esher track when 9 lengths separated the two horses in December’s Tingle Creek, with L’Eau du Sud another 9 lengths back in third place.
For me, that Grade 1 victory for Il Etait Temps sets a clear standard regarding the potential outcome of this championship contest. I never felt that the selection was, for whatever reason, travelling as well as is usually the case at Ascot, and if back to anything like his best, is expected to have too much pace at the end of the race for stablemate Majborough, who will need to jump a lot better than he did in last year’s Arkle if he is to justify favouritism.
Recommendation: Il Etait Temps (Nap) - 5/1 with bet365
* Betting odds correct at the time of publication. All odds are subject to changes.
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About Alan Kelly
A passionate follower of horse racing for over 50 years, Alan has enjoyed a 40-year career in the betting industry, 28 of which he spent running his betting shop as an owner/manager.
A successful punter with a keen eye for value, Alan has had many betting highlights, including a Scoop 6 win and has shown a consistent profit in the battle with bookmakers since joining Freebets.com in 2008.
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