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Latest Profit & Loss Figures
A small loss of £0.70 for the week ending Sunday, 23 November, although we did have three out of five winning naps (one non-runner), the big disappointment being the dismal run of Il Est Francais at Ascot on Saturday.
- P/L for the week ending Sunday, 23 November: -£0.70
- P/L for the year 2025 to date: +£71.13
- P/L for the year 2024: +£200.42
- P/L since 1st September 2022: +£557.12
Alan Kelly's Tips - Thursday, 27 November
Along with the all-weather cards at Chelmsford and Newcastle, there are four jumps meetings taking place on Thursday afternoon, Uttoxeter, Lingfield and Taunton in Britain and Thurles in Ireland.
1:40pm Taunton - Wicked Thoughts
A tightly-knit novices’ handicap chase in which only 6lb cover seven of the eight contenders. Several of these will be making their debuts over fences, the most interesting being Paul Nicholls’ WICKED THOUGHTS, an impressive winner of his only point-to-point by 25 lengths, and likely to make a better chaser than hurdler, Harry Cobden’s mount successful in a maiden hurdle at Ascot back in March from a horse who has gone on to win all three starts so far this season.
The son of Mahler should appreciate today’s ground conditions of good, good to firm in places and could well prove to be better class than his rivals. If the prices allow, I will also back ‘Shark’ Hanlon’s Irish challenger Portnacoo, the mount of talented 5lb claimer Paddy Hanlon.
I suspect connections are sending the Morozov gelding over for the ground, as all of the seven-year-old’s best efforts have come with the word good in the going description, including when landing a hat-trick of wins over hurdles for previous handler H Smythe around this time last year.
Portnacoo’s only previous try over fences came at Limerick 18 months ago when finishing last of the 6 runners in a beginners chase at odds of 100/1. The joint top weight has improved significantly since then when ground conditions have been in his favour and any market move for the Irish raider is likely to prove significant.
Recommendation: Wicked Thoughts - 7/1 with bet365
2:25pm Lingfield - Blue Las
Ben Pauling’s top weight Vanderpoel looks short enough at an opening show of 7/4 for this 2m 4f novices’ limited handicap chase. While the three-times hurdle winner is sure to have improved for his first outing over fences at Uttoxeter last month, the mount of Ben Jones was beaten a long-looking 25 lengths on that occasion.
Noble Park made a winning debut over fences at Hereford 16 days ago and will be fancied by many to follow-up off a 6lb higher mark, while David Pipe’s Gold In The Rivers made a pleasing start to his chasing career on the same day over today’s course and distance when beating all bar the Moore’s Kalif d’Airy after travelling best for much of the race.
The only one of the six runners without a run behind her this season is the Neil Mulholland-trained BLUE LAS, the mount of 3lb claimer Dylan Johnston. I don’t envisage that being a problem for the daughter of Blue Bresil however, who looks another exciting prospect over fences for the Walters’ family.
The mare has some excellent form to her name in both Bumpers and over hurdles, including when finishing third on holding ground in the Grade 2 Jane Seymour Mares’ Novices’ Hurdle at Sandown back in February. An opening show of 9/2 looks more than fair about a horse who should make her mark over fences in the months ahead and for a stable enjoying a decent season so far.
Recommendation: Blue Las - 6/1 with bet365
2:50pm Taunton - Bashful Boy (Each-Way)
Since winning a 5-runner handicap hurdle at Newton Abbot over 28 months ago, the David Pipe-trained BASHFUL BOY (Each-Way) has failed to add to his four victories over the smaller obstacles, in fact the nine-year-old has managed to finish no better than 4th on his 11 subsequent attempts. In contrast, the son of Magician has run some excellent races in staying handicaps on the flat, in particular when finishing 4th, 9th and 11th in the last three Cesarewitch’s.
Despite having to shoulder top weight in this modest Class 5 handicap, Bashful Boy is now running off his lowest ever mark over hurdles, and with jockey Harry Cobden booked to ride for the first time, the Pond House runner would take plenty of beating if able to produce anything like his flat form of the last last few months.
In a field of 15, decent recent form is thin on the ground, with best of those towards the bottom of the handicap being Sue Gardner’s Prairie Queen and Sawpit Sienna from the Sam Drinkwater stable.
Recommendation: Bashful Boy (Each-Way) - 11/2 with bet365 (4 places)
3:00pm Lingfield - Mondo Man (Nap)
While both Dan Skelton’s Dutch Corner and Harry Derham’s Mossy Fen Road have shown promise in Bumpers prior to making their debuts over hurdles, I’m surprised to see the latter heading the early betting at 5/6 as opposed to the 11/8 on offer about the Gary & Josh Moore-trained MONDO MAN (Nap).
Fourth behind subsequent King George winner Calandagan in last year’s Group 2 King Edwards V11 Stakes at Royal Ascot when trained in France, the four-year-old will be having his fourth start over hurdles, and while yet to open his account, this will be much easier than when taking on the likes of Lulamba at Ascot and Poniros in the Triumph Hurdle.
Fourth behind Illinois, Al Qareem and Absurde in Chester’s Ormonde Stakes on the flat back in May, I will be disappointed if Caoilin Quinn’s mount is unable to open his account over hurdles in this novices’ contest before stepping-up in class as the season develops.
Recommendation: Mondo Man (Nap) - 11/8 with William Hill
* Betting odds correct at the time of publication. All odds are subject to changes.
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About Alan Kelly
A passionate follower of horse racing for over 50 years, Alan has enjoyed a 40-year career in the betting industry, 28 of which he spent running his betting shop as an owner/manager.
A successful punter with a keen eye for value, Alan has had many betting highlights, including a Scoop 6 win and has shown a consistent profit in the battle with bookmakers since joining Freebets.com in 2008.
You can follow Alan Kelly on Twitter for more racing insight.
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