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Latest Profit & Loss Figures
Epsom's costly masterplan to reinvent Derby Day proved a bit of a damp squib in the end, mainly down to the awful weather which resulted in cars leaving the course in droves well before the feature race got underway at just after 4.00pm.
Having backed Dante winner Item, to see the York form overturned by over 30 lengths due to the conditions summed the day up for me. Christmas Day doesn't always bring what you had hoped for. The decision to declare Derby favourite Benvenuto Cellini a non-runner only added to the fiasco. Hopefully, the Surrey racecourse will have better luck in 12 months time, and at less expense.
Despite a slight loss on Saturday, we ended the week with a profit of +£6.65, mainly down to three successful naps, at odds of 5/1, 4/1 and 7/2 (20p R4).
- P/L for the week ending Sunday, 7 June: +£6.65
- P/L for the year 2026 to date: +£146.15
- P/L for the year 2025: +£22.38
- P/L for the year 2024: +£200.42
- P/L since 1st September 2022: +£646.81
Alan Kelly's Tips - Thursday, 11 June
Thursday’s feature race is the Group 3 Ballycorus Stakes at Leopardstown’s evening meeting, the ground at the Irish track currently described as soft, heavy in places.
3:30pm Newbury - Consecrated (Each-Way)
A rise of 4lb looks fair enough for the Ed Walker-trained Ata Rangi, the Decorated Knight gelding, a cosy winner in the hands of 5lb claimer Ashley Lewis at Haydock last month. Kieren Shoemark takes over in the saddle this afternoon on the consistent five-year-old, who looks sure to run another solid race, despite today’s career-high mark of 89.
George Scott’s lightly-raced filly Forty Years On ended last year with victories at Doncaster, Haydock and Ascot before going down narrowly to Ralph Beckett’s Maybe Not on Southwell’s all-weather surface in September, the winner going on to take last month’s Hambleton Handicap at York’s Dante meeting. The daughter of Mayson is likely to come on for today’s run, the mount of Hector Crouch having her first outing for almost 9 months.
While each-way claims can be made for several of the 16 contenders including James Tate’s Storm Free, I Still Have Faith from the Stuart Williams stable and Richard Hannon’s Best Rate, I think this is a good opportunity for William Haggas’s top weight CONSECRATED (Each-Way) to record a second victory, the first coming on her racecourse debut over today’s course and distance last April.
The daughter of Frankel should appreciate this drop in grade after failing to make an impact in Listed company on her last two starts, both over much longer trips. While Tom Marquand’s mount is bred to stay middle distances, the filly is not devoid of pace, and may prove better class than her rivals in this tightly-knit handicap.
Recommendation: Consecrated (Each-Way) - 9/1 with bet365 (5 places)
7:00pm Leopardstown - Native Warrior
A field of 8 for this Group 3 Ballycorus Stakes run over a distance of seven furlongs, the British challengers coming in the shape of Karl Burke’s NATIVE WARRIOR and the ex John & Thady Gosden-trained Audition, now in the care of David O’Meara. The latter has yet to recapture the kind of form which saw him win Newbury’s Group 1 Lockinge Stakes two years ago, the Iffraaj gelding beaten over 100 lengths on his five starts for O’Meara.
The highest-rated of the contenders, Native Warrior’s most recent effort came when finishing a well beaten 7th of 8 behind fellow rival Wannabe Royal as the 13/8 market leader in a Naas Listed race last month, a run which was simply too bad to be true. The son of Wootton Bassett had previously proved himself to be a model of consistency with victories in a couple of hugely competitive handicaps at Ascot, along with a narrow defeat in Saint-Cloud’s Group 3 Prix Edmond Blanc on his first run of the season.
Held-up at the back of the field at Naas, I expect to see jockey James Doyle have his mount a lot handier on this occasion, as for me, the Wathnan-owned five-year-old is the best horse in the race. While Native Warrior’s Naas conqueror Wannabe Royal is respected, a bigger danger to the selection may come in the shape of Celestial Orbit from the Oaks-winning partnership of trainer Joseph O’Brien and jockey Dylan Browne McMonagle.
Recommendation: Native Warrior - 11/10 with Unibet
7:42pm Worcester - Sunray Shadow (Nap)
The Dan Skelton stable have begun the new jumps season where they left off, the champion trainer currently enjoying a 50% success rate with 12 winners from their last 24 runners as I write. This 2m 7f handicap hurdle sees the stable’s SUNRAY SHADOW return to the smaller obstacles following a victory on the gelding’s chasing debut over today’s course and distance two weeks ago.
Successful over hurdles at Huntingdon 9 days earlier, Harry Skelton’s mount looks the type to set up a sequence over both codes in the weeks ahead, the Blue Bresil gelding expected to prove more than capable of coping with tonight’s career-high mark of 121. Of the two Olly Murphy-trained runners, Shallow River is expected to follow the selection home, Sean Bowen’s mount clearly badly in need of the run when finishing a never-nearer 6th at Hexham last month, the 10-year-old’s first outing for 17 months.
Recommendation: Sunray Shadow (Nap) - 4/5 with bet365
* Betting odds correct at the time of publication. All odds are subject to changes.
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About Alan Kelly
A passionate follower of horse racing for over 50 years, Alan has enjoyed a 40-year career in the betting industry, 28 of which he spent running his betting shop as an owner/manager.
A successful punter with a keen eye for value, Alan has had many betting highlights, including a Scoop 6 win and has shown a consistent profit in the battle with bookmakers since joining Freebets.com in 2008.
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