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Following three excellent weeks we were due a bad one, and since Sea Lantern’s narrow Cesarewitch defeat little has gone right, the week ending Sunday 18th October resulting in a loss of -£13.82.
P/L for the week ending Sunday, 18 October: -£13.82
P/L for the year to date: +£199.60
P/L for the year 2025: +£22.38
P/L for the year 2024: +£200.42
P/L since 1st September 2022: +£700.16
Alan Kelly's Tips - Wednesday, 21 October
Horse Racing tips for the national hunt meetings at Worcester and Fontwell on Wednesday afternoon.
Six of the seven races taking place on Wednesday’s card at Newmarket are for two-year-olds, the one exception being a one mile fillies’ handicap at 4.10pm. The meeting is of interest with a view to next season, but not as a betting medium. The Jumps cards at Worcester and Fontwell are both expected to take place on ground on the soft side of good.
1:40pm Worcester - Scorpio Rising (Nap)
An informative beginners chase in which 5 of the 6 runners are rated between 130 and 143, the one exception being the Cynthia Woods-trained Vicomte Le Brave, who looks totally outclassed in today’s company.
Jonjo & A J O’Neill’s Bill Joyce looked a smart prospect when winning Sandown’s Grade 2 Winter Novices’ Hurdle two years ago, but ended last season being pulled up in races at Haydock and Warwick, the first on his only start to date over fences. At the age of 7, it is still too early to write off the Mahler gelding, although a watching brief is advised on this occasion.
The Dan Skelton stable continues to fly along and last season’s Pertemps Network Final third Catch Him Derry could do well now switched to fences, a remark which also applies to Toby Lawes’ Klimt Madrik and Catch Him Derry’s stablemate Talk To The Man. The latter recently joined Skelton from Paul Nicholls and may just need this first run, despite Harry Skelton taking the ride.
One horse I expect to make the grade in novice chases this season is the Olly Murphy-trained Scorpio Rising, who rattled off a four-timer over hurdles for connections before ending the season with a respectable 7th in the Grade 1 Turners Mersey Novices’ Hurdle at Aintree’s Grand National meeting.
Sean Bowen’s mount won a Premier Handicap at Sandown under a big weight at the Imperial Cup meeting and has always looked the type to make a better chaser than hurdler. The stable have had 8 winners from their last 34 runners and Scorpio Rising is unlikely to fail through lack of fitness on his reappearance.
Recommendation: Scorpio Rising (Nap)
This is Alan's Nap of the Day selection - see how it stacks up against Charlie McCann's pick.
2:32pm Fontwell - Known Warrior
This Fontwell Chase Series Qualifier looks to concern the two horses heading the weights, Alex Hales’ chasing debutante Chatty Girl and the Richard J Bandey-trained Known Warrior, preference being for the latter.
The lightly-raced Known Warrior has shown promise in his four starts to date over fences, in particular when just ran out of it close home in finishing a close second behind Patrick Neville’s Shadowfax Of Rohan at Southwell back in March. Rex Dingle’s mount has a tendency to jump out to his right at some of his fences but is more than capable of winning a race of this nature off a mark of 99.
Trainer Alex Hales has his stable in fine form at the moment and Chatty Girl’s only win to date came on her debut two years ago when taking a Fillies’ ‘Junior’ National Hunt Flat Race at Newbury just before Christmas. The betting is likely to prove a significant guide to the chances of the daughter of Harzand, who failed to win in five outings over hurdles but looks the type to make a better chaser.
Recommendation: Known Warrior
4:00pm Worcester - Limier d'Arthel
Mister Des Places has his first start for Olly Murphy since leaving the French stable of Regis Schmidlin recently, the four-year-old a dual winner in the provinces. Any market support for Sean Bowen’s mount would be significant.
Dan Skelton’s Leaumec De Mee made hard work of winning a maiden hurdle at Sedgefield last December before ending the season with a tame effort in a Doncaster handicap in February. Four of the 8 runners for this two mile handicap hurdle are making their handicap debuts, the most interesting being the J P McManus-owned Limier d’Arthel for the Hobbs/White partnership.
An easy winner on the Flat in France back in 2024 when trained by Emmanuel Clayeux, the five-year-old only got as far as the first on his British debut back in January when unseating 3lb claimer Callum Pritchard in a Huntingdon maiden hurdle.
Second of 16 at Exeter two months later, Harry Cobden’s mount finished third on his most recent start behind horses rated 127 and 120 respectively. Making his handicap debut off a mark of 107, Limier d’Arthel has the scope to prove better than today’s opening rating.
Recommendation: Limier d'Arthel at 13/8
* Betting odds correct at the time of publication. All odds are subject to changes.
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About Alan Kelly
A passionate follower of horse racing for over 50 years, Alan has enjoyed a 40-year career in the betting industry, 28 of which he spent running his betting shop as an owner/manager.
A successful punter with a keen eye for value, Alan has had many betting highlights, including a Scoop 6 win and has shown a consistent profit in the battle with bookmakers since joining Free Bets in 2008.
You can follow Alan Kelly on X for more racing insight.
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