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A good start to Grand National week with the 9/1 victory of Soldier In Milan in Monday’s Irish Grand National. However, the best we could manage in Saturday’s feature race was the seventh place finish of our 50/1 long-range pick Final Orders.
The rain which fell at Aintree on Friday night and during racing on Saturday didn’t help the chances of our ante-post selection.
- P/L for the week ending Sunday, 12 April: -£11.25
- P/L for the year 2026 to date: +£57.35
- P/L for the year 2025: +£22.38
- P/L for the year 2024: +£200.42
- P/L since 1st September 2022: +£558.01
Alan Kelly's Tips - Friday, 17 April
Some excellent horse racing under both codes on Friday afternoon courtesy of the two-day meetings at Newbury on the Flat and Ayr over jumps.
Light rain is forecast at both fixtures, the ground currently described as good at Newbury and soft, good to soft at the Scottish racecourse.
3:30pm Ayr - Hoe Joly Smoke
It's interesting that the Russell/Scudamore stable are dropping the one-time Gold Cup and Grand National hope Myretown back down in trip for this extended 2m 4f contest, the Dylan Thomas gelding looking a non-stayer when pulled-up in Haydock’s Grand National Trial on his penultimate start before weakening to finish 13th in Cheltenham's Ultima last month.
Derek Fox's mount has plenty of pace however, two of his three victories over fences to date coming over trips shorter than three miles. The nine-year-old is likely to have plenty of company up front from the likes of top weight Twinjets, Il Ridoto and Jipcot, in which case the race could be set up nicely for the Dan Skelton-trained HOE JOLY SMOKE,
Third in a couple of valuable handicaps at Cheltenham at the beginning of the season, the son of Black Sam Belamy is adaptable between trips of 2m 4f and 3m and will be having his first start since finishing 6th in Kempton’s Ladbrokes Trophy two months ago. Harry Skelton’s mount has a decent record fresh, and following a recent wind op, is fancied to pick up the pieces in a race sure to be run at a decent pace.
Recommendation: Hoe Joly Smoke 9/2 (William Hill)
3:42pm Newbury - My Love Is King
This is a cracking mile and a quarter novices contest which is sure to throw up plenty of winners in the months ahead, at least one of which I expect to be running in Listed or Group company by the end of the season. Andrew Balding’s Alfaraz and Joulany from the Ralph Beckett stable both showed promise without winning as juveniles, while Maltese Cross, MY LOVE IS KING, Sahara King and Shabab Al Ahli all go into today’s race with victories under their belts.
Godolphin’s Shabab Al Ahli is the hardest to evaluate having won a three-runner contest at Southwell on his debut earlier in the year. The betting is likely to prove the best guide to the chances of Charlie Appleby’s charge, but the son of Frankel will have to be very smart to get the better of a couple of promising colts in William Haggas’s Maltese Cross and My Love Is King from the Gosden stable.
The former won a Newmarket maiden on his second start last September, 19 days after making a promising debut at Ascot when staying-on to finish a close second to a more experienced rival. Runner-up in that Newmarket race was Godolphin’s Del Maro, who went on to finish third in the Group 3 Zetland Stakes at Headquarters and is now rated 101.
While the Sea The Stars colt is clearly a horse with huge potential, the same can be said of the John & Thady Gosden-trained My Love Is King, who created a big impression when winning on his debut at Newcastle back in November. The Gosden’s like to give their juveniles a bit of experience on Newcastle’s Tapeta surface (Enable won on her debut at the north-east racecourse) and clearly rate this son of Kingman, who was sent off at odds of 4/6.
While Robert Havlin’s mount will find today’s opposition much tougher than last time, the stable have had 4 winners from their last 14 runners (including the impressive Damysus) and I fancy My Love IsKing to take this informative contest before stepping-up in class.
Recommendation: My Love Is King 8/1 (bet365)
4:20pm Newbury - Classical Allusion (Nap)
While all eyes will be on the horse making all of the headlines at the moment, Nicky Henderson’s Constitution Hill, now confirmed a non-runner in Saturday’s John Porter Stakes on this course, the form of the nine-year-old’s victory at Kempton last month can receive a boost courtesy of the runner-up in that 1m 4f novice stakes, the Andrew Balding-trained CLASSICAL ALLUSION (Nap), who makes his handicap debut off an attractive opening mark of 85.
The winner of a Southwell maiden on his only outing at three, the Ulysses gelding takes a significant step-up in trip for this extended 2m contest, but may well have been let in lightly against a field of mainly exposed rivals. Kevin Philippart De Foy’s Maxident would prefer softer conditions, which probably leaves Hughie Morrison’s Caprelo (3 from 11 on the all-weather but yet to open his account on turf) as the one the Kingsclere contender has to beat.
Recommendation: Classical Allusion (Nap) 9/4 (William Hill)
* Betting odds correct at the time of publication. All odds are subject to changes.
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About Alan Kelly
A passionate follower of horse racing for over 50 years, Alan has enjoyed a 40-year career in the betting industry, 28 of which he spent running his betting shop as an owner/manager.
A successful punter with a keen eye for value, Alan has had many betting highlights, including a Scoop 6 win and has shown a consistent profit in the battle with bookmakers since joining Freebets.com in 2008.
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