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Epsom's costly masterplan to reinvent Derby Day proved a bit of a damp squib in the end, mainly down to the awful weather which resulted in cars leaving the course in droves well before the feature race got underway at just after 4.00pm.
Having backed Dante winner Item, to see the York form overturned by over 30 lengths due to the conditions summed the day up for me. Christmas Day doesn't always bring what you had hoped for. The decision to declare Derby favourite Benvenuto Cellini a non-runner only added to the fiasco. Hopefully, the Surrey racecourse will have better luck in 12 months time, and at less expense.
Despite a slight loss on Saturday, we ended the week with a profit of +£6.65, mainly down to three successful naps, at odds of 5/1, 4/1 and 7/2 (20p R4).
- P/L for the week ending Sunday, 7 June: +£6.65
- P/L for the year 2026 to date: +£146.15
- P/L for the year 2025: +£22.38
- P/L for the year 2024: +£200.42
- P/L since 1st September 2022: +£646.81
Alan Kelly's Tips - Friday, 12 June
Friday’s Horse Racing on the Flat comes from the meetings at York, Sandown and Chester in the afternoon and Goodwood in the evening, along with the jumps fixtures at Market Rasen and Newton Abbot.
2:37pm Chester - Morbeh (Nap)
Jack Channon’s Silver State ran a cracking race to finish a clear second in Epsom’s Lester Piggott Handicap behind Folk Pageant on Derby Day. Due to go up 5lb in the future, connections are clearly keen to take advantage of today’s mark of 85, especially along with the 5lb claim of rider Rose Dawes.
The Lucky Vega gelding will find conditions on the Roodee a lot different to those encountered last week however, and I will be surprised if Silver Slate is up to conceding the weight to Roger Varian’s improving Dubawi gelding MORBEH (Nap), the mount of in-form jockey Cieren Fallon.
The Shadwell-owned three-year-old has done well since running in handicap company, winning races at Lingfield and Windsor, along with creditable efforts in defeat at Doncaster and Goodwood. On his most recent start, Morbeh ran out a cosy winner at Windsor from Michael Bell’s Any Which Way, who would go one better at Doncaster last week, and Andrew Balding’s King Of Berkshire, also successful last week at Thirsk.
2lb Well-in compared to a future mark of 78, Morbeh is expected to take plenty of beating from his draw in stall 4 and with more improvement to come.
Recommendation: Morbeh (Nap) - 7/2 with bet365
3:23pm Sandown - Dangerman
Jockey William Buick has four rides on Sandown’s card, two for both Charlie Appleby and the John & Thady Gosden stable. The chances of the first two, both unraced Godolphin juveniles, will be determined by the betting market, although the boys in blue have an excellent record with their two-year-olds on this course.
The Gosden runners are both in handicaps, the one who makes most appeal, also owned by Godolphin, being the Cracksman gelding DANGERMAN in this mile and a quarter Class 3 handicap. Both of the four-year-old’s victories to date came over today’s course and distance last summer, the second when landing the odds in easy fashion off a mark of 80 at the beginning of August.
Back at the Esher racecourse later that month, Dangerman could only manage to finish a respectable third of the 12 runners in a handicap run on soft ground. However, the winner of that race, Roger Varian’s Saddadd, is now rated 116 following his third in last month’s Group 1 Tattersalls Gold Cup at the Curragh behind Almaqam and last Saturday’s runaway Coronation Cup winner Bay City Roller.
While only fourth in Epsom’s City & Suburban in his reappearance, the selection is sure to have come on for that first run in over six months. Back on a course than clearly suits, and off a potentially attractive mark of 87, Dangerman can open his account for the season at the main expense of Alan King’s Alcarath, a promising fourth at Newbury last month, and Michael Bell’s Greek Order, now running off a mark 7lb lower than when finishing fourth in the Golden Mile at Glorious Goodwood last year. Drawn in stall 1, I expect Buick to have his mount up with the pace from the word go.
Recommendation: Dangerman - 9/2 with bet365
4:10pm York - Altareq (Each-Way)
On his first start for trainer Jim Goldie since leaving the John & Thady Gosden stable with just three runs under his belt, the Frankel gelding ALTAREQ (Each-Way) was a real eyecatcher when finishing a never-nearer third, beaten just over a length, behind a potential Group horse in the Gosden’s Warrant Holder in a valuable handicap over today’s trip at York’s Dante meeting.
I was therefore surprised to see the unexposed four-year-old dropped back two furlongs in trip for a Class 2 handicap at Hamilton earlier this month. In what turned out to be a slowly-run affair, I thought the mount of 5lb claimer Lauren Young did exceptionally well to get to within two and a half lengths of a couple of decent horses in Diego Ventura and Eternal Force, the front two separated by a nose.
Back over a more suitable trip and in receipt of weight from his 15 rivals, Altareq gets the each-way vote in a race which looks sure to be run at a decent pace. As you would expect for a £70k Class 2 handicap, claims can be made for many of the runners, in particular Roger Varian’s lightly-raced Antipodes and the David Menuisier-trained City Of Delight.
Recommendation: Altareq (Each-Way) - 5/1 with bet365 (5 places)
* Betting odds correct at the time of publication. All odds are subject to changes.
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About Alan Kelly
A passionate follower of horse racing for over 50 years, Alan has enjoyed a 40-year career in the betting industry, 28 of which he spent running his betting shop as an owner/manager.
A successful punter with a keen eye for value, Alan has had many betting highlights, including a Scoop 6 win and has shown a consistent profit in the battle with bookmakers since joining Freebets.com in 2008.
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