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Alan Kelly's Tips - Friday, 21 November
Ascot, Chepstow and Catterick all stage decent jumps cards on Friday afternoon along with the Irish meeting at Fairyhouse.
Ground on the soft side of good is expected for the three British cards, while conditions will be more testing, should the fixture go ahead as planned, at the home of the Irish Grand National.
12:07pm Catterick - Wasthatok
The Parkinson/Smith stable has hit form recently and their Emotional Roller returns to the scene of his January course and distance victory, the seven-year-old’s only win from eight starts to date over the bigger obstacles. While no match for easy winner Upfordebate on his reappearance at Sedgefield last week, Peter Kavanagh’s mount is sure to be better for the run.
Previously trained by Kerry Lee, the Mount Nelson gelding WASTHATOK has taken a while to find his form for current handler Philip Kirby. But following a few runs on the flat, the seven-year-old returned to hurdles on the final day of last month to finish second at Wetherby. After going clear of his rivals with three to jump at the West Yorkshire track, the mount of Joe Williamson had nothing left to give when headed by winner Princesse Milania (runs in the 1.15pm) at the last.
Ridden more conservatively at Newcastle last Friday, Wasthatok cruised home from his 8 rivals without being extended. Not surprisingly, the seven-year-old reappears a week later off the same mark of 94, but on this occasion over fences for just the second time. Wasthatok’s previous attempt at chasing came at Hereford 22 months ago when well beaten over a trip of just two miles.
Now stepping up to 3m 1f for the first time and off a mark some 26lb lower, the selection should take the world of beating if able to transfer his last two efforts over hurdles to that of the bigger obstacles.
Recommendation: Wasthatok - 11/4 with bet365
12:50pm Ascot - Doctor Blue (Nap)
A disappointing turnout of just 17 runners for the first four races on Ascot’s seven-race card, four of which are due to contest this ‘Introductory’ hurdle. Bookmaker William Hill have installed Harry Fry’s Cheltenham’s Champion Bumper sixth Idaho Sun as their ⅚ favourite following his debut win over hurdles in a minor contest at Fontwell last month.
While Bryan Carver’s mount never really looked in danger of defeat at the West Sussex racecourse, and the runner-up going on to finish second again at Cheltenham on Sunday, I prefer the chances of Sam Thomas’s DOCTOR BLUE (Nap) at the 13/8 currently available. Thrown-in at the deep end for his first run over hurdles when contesting a Grade 2 contest at Cheltenham last month, the Doctor Dino gelding failed by just a short head to get the better of the Skelton’s Fortune De Mer (runs in the 2.35) after receiving a bump going to 2 out.
That looked a pretty strong contest with plenty of promising types in behind, including previous winners Jaminska, The Last Cloud, Sir Galahad, Un Sens A La Vie and Run For Mahler, while the fifth horse home Jack Hyde went on to be narrowly beaten in a Cheltenham handicap at the weekend. The Sam Thomas stable continues in excellent form, and in what looks to be a virtual match, the 5lb Doctor Blue receives from Idaho Sun could prove the difference between the two promising hurdlers.
Recommendation: Doctor Blue (Nap) - 13/8 with William Hill
2:00pm Ascot - Neon Moon
A field of only 5 for this valuable handicap chase, headed by the Ben Pauling-trained Your Darling who heads the market at an opening show of 2/1. While the lightly-raced 10-year-old has won on both of his starts at the track, the mount of Ben Jones has a career-high mark of 142 to defy and will be having his first start for 18 months.
Of the other four contenders, I think it could be worth taking a chance on the outsider of the party in David Pipe’s NEON MOON and jockey Harry Cobden. The son of No Risk At All has run many of his best races on this course, including when finishing third in the Sodexo Gold Cup 12 months ago.
Now running off his lowest mark since winning at Newbury last spring, Neon Moon was far from disgraced in finishing fifth in this year’s Sodexo Gold Cup earlier in the month and looks decent value at odds of around 7/1.
Recommendation: Neon Moon - 7/1 with William Hill
2:09pm Chepstow - Lundi Noir
A non-runner due to ‘unsuitable ground’ (soft/heavy in places) when strongly fancied for a Go North Cab On Target Series Qualifier at Ayr last week, hopefully, current conditions of soft, good to soft in places at the home of the Welsh Grand National will be more suitable for the Tom Lacey-trained LUNDI NOIR on his third run over hurdles.
A comfortable winner on his first outing over the smaller obstacles in a Market Rasen maiden hurdle back in February, the Doctor Dino gelding, following a break of 234 days, made his handicap debut over today’s course and distance last month when finishing a promising third of the 16 runners, looking very much as if he would improve significantly with that run under his belt.
Running off the same mark of 110, Stan Sheppard’s mount faces a field of mainly exposed rivals today and is fancied to take this Class 4 handicap granted just normal improvement. The other unexposed contender is Ben Clarke’s top weight A Perfect Day, winner of a novices’ hurdle at Wincanton 12 months ago but possibly fortunate due to the fall 3 out of long odds-on favourite Ambion View.
Recommendation: Lundi Noir
* Betting odds correct at the time of publication. All odds are subject to changes.
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About Alan Kelly
A passionate follower of horse racing for over 50 years, Alan has enjoyed a 40-year career in the betting industry, 28 of which he spent running his betting shop as an owner/manager.
A successful punter with a keen eye for value, Alan has had many betting highlights, including a Scoop 6 win and has shown a consistent profit in the battle with bookmakers since joining Freebets.com in 2008.
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