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A fabulous Goodwood Festival but far from Glorious from a betting perspective.
On a course where luck plays a significant role, lady fortune was not on our side over the five days, our final 4/1 selection We’re Goosers (backed into 11/8) looked to be coming with a winning run when hampered several times inside the closing stages before finishing a close third.
P/L for the week ending Sunday, 2 August: -£12.52
P/L for the year 2026 to date: +£149.88
P/L for the year 2025: +£22.38
P/L for the year 2024: +£200.42
P/L since 1st September 2022: +£650.54
Alan Kelly's Tips - Friday, 7 August
Friday afternoon’s horse racing action comes from the Flat meetings at Musselburgh, Thirsk and Brighton, while in the evening the cards at Haydock Park and Newmarket are joined by the Irish fixtures at Gowran Park and Wexford (Jumps).
The ground at all seven meetings continues to be a mixture of good and good to firm.
3:10pm Thirsk - Gerry’s Darling (Nap)
Ed Walker’s recent Ayr maiden winner Bymiddaytomorrow heads the weights for this 7f nursery, the daughter of Mehmas carrying a 6lb penalty for that success, but negated somewhat by the 3lb claim of talented apprentice Ashley Lewis.
Another horse who will have a 6lb penalty to shoulder is Roger Fell’s Palace Pier filly GERRY'S DARLING (Nap), who will be running off a mark of just 71, a rating which I think totally underestimated the ability of Kevin Stott’s mount.
After showing very little on her first two starts, both at Doncaster, Gerry’s Darling beat all bar the strongly-fancied Mojito Madness in a Redcar maiden on her third start, one place in front of 11/10 favourite Hey Up Ronnie. The second and third met again at Musselburgh last Friday, Gerry’s Darling showing significant improvement in beating Ollie Pears’charge by an eased-down six and a half lengths.
I will be very surprised if the selection does not finish the season racing off a much higher mark than that of today.
Recommendation: Gerry’s Darling (Nap) - 15/8 with Sky Bet
3:20pm Musselburgh - Zarvali & Ashen
Following easy victories in minor contests at Thirsk and Chester it is hard to sum up Harriet Bethell’s handicap debutante Eagle Bay, the Cable Bay gelding running off a potentially lenient mark of 85. Ed Walker’s Passing Thoughts will find this company much easier than when failing to make an impression in Royal Ascot’s Sandringham Stakes last time, Kieren Shoemark’s mount a winner at Wetherby on her handicap debut back in April.
While the betting is sure to be a significant guide to the chances of those two horses, my two against the field for this Champagne Pommery Cuvee Louise Gold Cup are Roger Fell’s ZARVALI and bottom weight ASHEN, one of two runners for trainer Jim Goldie.
The former, one of four contenders from the classic generation in the race, won at the first time of asking for Fell after leaving Irish trainer Johnny Murtagh earlier in the year, the son of Dandy Man beating favourite Sandy Craic in a novice stakes at Catterick back in May.
Joanna Mason’s mount has performed well in defeat since then in handicap company, looking particularly unlucky when finishing 6th of 20 in a 7f York handicap after failing to get anything like a clear run. Jim Goldie’s Ashen has a habit of missing the break, but the Phoenix Of Spain gelding is a strong finisher and more than capable of going close off today’s mark of 67.
Jockey Lauren Young claims a handy 5lb on the four-year-old, who will be staying-on better than most if getting the breaks from his draw in stall 1.
Recommendations: Zarvali - 20/1 with bet365 & Ashen - 25/1 with bet365
4:24pm Musselburgh - Roc De Fer
Sir Mark Prescott is a master at placing his horses in an effort to set up a sequence of victories, and in the lightly-raced Sea The Moon gelding ROC DE FER he has a horse who very much fits that bill. Following three unplaced efforts on the all-weather towards the end of last year, Roc De Fer made his handicap debut when finishing third over 1m 2f at Ripon in June, the horses’s first outing since being gelded.
Racing over trips of 1m 3f and 1m 4f on his next two starts at Southwell and Wolverhampton, Luke Morris’s mount goes into today’s 1m 5f race on a hat-trick following comfortable successes in those races on the all-weather. Despite having to carry a double penalty (12lb), Roc De Fer is still 2lb well-in and almost certainly better than his future mark of 82.
A length and a half runner-up to the selection at Wolverhampton, James Fanshawe’s Much enjoys a pull of 6lb with the top weight. Daniel Muscutt’s mount may prove the main danger to the Prescott runner once again.
Recommendation: Roc De Fer - 1/2 with bet365
7:47pm Newmarket - Areti
With champion jockey Oisin Murphy booked to ride and racing off an opening handicap mark of just 62, any market move for Ed Walker’s bottom weight Melodical in this 7f fillies’ handicap should be noted. However, I think this is a great opportunity for title-chasing jockey Billy Loughnane, who partners recent Redcar winner ARETI for trainer Oliver Cole.
Running off the same mark of 75 as when finishing a close fourth in a one mile handicap at Newbury last month, the daughter of Hello Youmzain has finished second in three of her nine starts to date and is fancied to follow-up that Redcar victory in an apprentice fillies’ novice stakes last Wednesday for a stable in excellent form.
Recommendation: Areti - 13/8 with Paddy Power
8:38pm Haydock - Tokyo Joe
Hopefully, Haydock Park can get through tonight’s card with no repeat of recent ground issues. The field of 11 for the final race on the card is headed by the Daniel & Claire Kubler-trained hat-trick seeking Distinct Spirit, the winner of recent races at Ffos Las and Lingfield. The top weight beat a total of only 5 horses in those two races however, and will find this a much tougher task with 10st to carry.
Grant Tuer’s Farandaway has been a model of consistency this season and still looks fairly treated off a mark of 74. Oliver Stammers’ mount may prove the main danger to the selection, Ed Walker’s TOKYO JOE, the mount of in-form jockey Tom Marquand.
Following creditable efforts in handicaps at Ascot and York, the latter when finishing a close 4th of 20 in a York contest off today’s mark of 70, the Siyouni gelding landed the odds in a Ffos Las handicap just 2 days after that run on the Knavesmire. Raised only 1lb for that success, Tokyo Joe looks sure to go close once again.
Recommendation: Tokyo Joe - 11/4 with bet365
* Betting odds correct at the time of publication. All odds are subject to changes.
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About Alan Kelly
A passionate follower of horse racing for over 50 years, Alan has enjoyed a 40-year career in the betting industry, 28 of which he spent running his betting shop as an owner/manager.
A successful punter with a keen eye for value, Alan has had many betting highlights, including a Scoop 6 win and has shown a consistent profit in the battle with bookmakers since joining Free Bets in 2008.
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