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A poor set of results on Friday and Saturday meant we ended the week with a loss of -£10.24. We are still enjoying an excellent year however and the action steps up a gear next weekend with Ascot’s King George V1 & Queen Elizabeth Stakes meeting followed by the Glorious Goodwood Festival.
P/L for the week ending Sunday, 19 July: -£10.24
P/L for the year 2026 to date: +£155.60
P/L for the year 2025: +£20.38
P/L for the year 2024: +£200.42
P/L since 1st September 2022: +£656.26
Alan Kelly's Tips - Monday, 20 July
A quiet start to the week in Britain with afternoon meetings at Ayr on the Flat and Cartmel over jumps along with the two evening fixtures at Beverley and Windsor.
3:12pm Cartmel - Raffles Nobu
An opening handicap mark of 100 looks pretty steep for James Moffatt’s Big Gypsy King, a winner at odds of 25/1 in a mares’ novices hurdle over today’s course and distance last month. With odds-on favourite Cinating appearing to go wrong when pulled-up by jockey Sean Bowen and second favourite Eremenko doing too much up front, the form of that 7 length victory has to be taken with a pinch of salt.
I think the outcome of this Class 5 handicap hurdle probably rests with Ewan Whillans’ top weight Scots Poet and Nick Scholfield’s RAFFLES NOBU, with slight preference for the latter, one of two runners on the card for the Lambourn trainer. Since leaving the Nicky Henderson stable at the back end of last year, Jack Quinlan’s mount has come down from a rating of 108 to today’s mark of 92 (including a 7lb penalty for the gelding’s comfortable win at Newton Abbot last week).
Now that the son of Authorized has finally hit form for connections, the six-year-old looks the type to win again before the handicapper catches up with him. Scots Poet has been in fine form over the last few months, winning races at Sedgefield, Kelso and Perth before unseating his rider after being bumped in a conditional jockeys’ handicap on his most recent start last week.
The mount of Conor O’Farrell only managed to beat one horse home on his only previous visit to Cartmel, but the 10-year-old still looks the main danger to the four year younger Raffles Nobu.
Recommendation: Raffles Nobu - 7/4 with bet365
7:30pm Beverley - A War Eagle (Nap)
A dual winner over today’s course and distance, the most recent coming back in April off a 2lb lower mark, Michael & David Easterby’s top weight A WAR EAGLE (Nap) has been running well enough at a higher grade since then to suggest the Make Believe gelding can win for a third time at the East Yorkshire racecourse with a victory in this extended 7f contest.
Following that success three months ago, Billy Garritty’s mount was beaten a little over two lengths when finishing fifth behind David O’Meara’s Mirsky in the Thirsk Hunt Cup. Sent off at odds of 40/1 for a valuable 7f handicap at Epsom on Oaks Day, A War Eagle looked a bit unlucky in finishing 3rd of the 16 runners after being badly hampered 2 furlongs out.
Off the same mark of 84, and on a course that clearly suits the four-year-old, the selection is fancied to concede the weight to his 4 rivals, best of which looks to be Michael Dods’ Glenfinnan, who can confirm the form of his second on this course earlier in the month ahead of It Just Takes Time, Coolree and Tattie Bogle.
Recommendation: A War Eagle (Nap) - 5/1 with bet365
Ante-Post: Coral Golden Mile (Goodwood, 31 July) - Tribal Chief (Each-Way)
Having selected the David Menuisier-trained Tribal Chief for Saturday's valuable Coral Challenge at Sandown, the race was pretty much over for Saffie Osborne's mount as the stalls opened, the five-year-old losing in the region of 8 lengths to his rivals in a race where it was almost impossible to win from such a position.
A fast finishing sixth, beaten three lengths, the son of Sioux Nation nevertheless ran a cracking trial for Goodwood's Coral Golden Mile later this month. Currently standing at number 46 for the £175k handicap on the Friday of the five-day festival, and with a maximum field of 20, the five-year-old will need a few to come out in order to make the cut.
Sixth in last year's race off a 2lb lower mark when beaten three lengths after being slowly away once again as a strongly-fancied 11/2 chance, TRIBAL CHIEF (Each-Way) will need to get his act together as the stalls open on the Sussex Downs, but following excellent efforts in both the Lincoln and Victoria Cup this season, the ante-post selection has a big handicap within him at some point.
Recommendation: Tribal Chief (Each-Way) - 16/1 with Betfred & Paddy Power (¼ odds, 1-2-3-4)
* Betting odds correct at the time of publication. All odds are subject to changes.
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About Alan Kelly
A passionate follower of horse racing for over 50 years, Alan has enjoyed a 40-year career in the betting industry, 28 of which he spent running his betting shop as an owner/manager.
A successful punter with a keen eye for value, Alan has had many betting highlights, including a Scoop 6 win and has shown a consistent profit in the battle with bookmakers since joining Free Bets in 2008.
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