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Despite another excellent week with a profit of +£17.13 to a £1 level stake, we can count ourselves unfortunate due to the narrow defeats of Silver Lake (6/1) and Baldomero (10/1) on Friday and Sea Lantern’s mugging in Saturday’s Cesarewitch (advised at 6/1), all beaten a matter of inches.
P/L for the week ending Sunday, 11 October: +£17.13
P/L for the year to date: +£213.42
P/L for the year 2025: +£22.38
P/L for the year 2024: +£200.42
P/L since 1st September 2022: +£713.98
Alan Kelly's Tips - Saturday, 17 October
ITV Racing will be showing all seven races from Champions Day at Ascot on Saturday afternoon.
Unlike in previous years when soft or heavy going was usually the case, conditions at the Berkshire racecourse are forecast to be just about perfect.
12:55pm Ascot - Satellite Of Love (Each-Way)
This Champions Day Two-Year-Old Conditions Stakes is much better than a Class 2 juvenile contest. The £250k opener would not be out of place as a Group 3 or Group 2 race. Godolphin’s Inner City Blues failed to justify favouritism when only 5th of 7 in Newmarket’s Group 1 Middle Park Stakes last time and represents little in the way of value at current odds.
Eve Johnson Houghton’s Night In Vegas has already won just short of £600k in prize money, but is now 7lb worse off at the weights with the Clive Cox-trained SATELLITE OF LOVE (Each-Way) for the half length which separated the pair in Doncaster’s Weatherbys £300,000 2-Y-O Stakes at the St Leger meeting. Rossa Ryan’s mount has since gone on to win Redcar’s William Hill Two Year Old Trophy and gets the each-way vote.
Recommendation: Satellite Of Love (Each-Way) - 13/2 with Betfred (3 places)
1:30pm Ascot - Opportunity (Each-Way)
A slightly below-par renewal of this Group 1 stamina test. However, what the race lacks in quality it makes up for in its competitiveness. While it is possible to make a case out for most of the 10 contenders, the vote goes to the William Haggas-trained OPPORTUNITY (Each-Way).
Beaten just half a length off top weight in York’s Ebor on his most recent start (5lb better off with winner Daiquiri Bay), Tom Marquand’s mount could well improve again on his first attempt at today’s trip of 2m and make plenty of appeal at a double-figure price.
Recommendation: Opportunity (Each-Way) - 12/1 with bet365 (3 places)
2:05pm Ascot - Kind Of Blue (Each-Way)
Almeraq, one of three runners for the William Haggas stable, looked like the best sprinter in Europe when cruising home in Haydock’s Betfair Sprint Cup last month. If today’s conditions had been similar to those experienced at the Merseyside racecourse, the Shadwell-owned son of Dark Angel would have been banker material to take this Group 1 Champions Sprint Stakes.
With today’s ground expected to ride on the firm side of good, I would rather look for an each-way alternative to the short priced favourite, the vote going to James Fanshawe’s KIND OF BLUE (Each-Way), the mount of new champion jockey Billy Loughnane.
Winner of the race two years ago, the son of Blue Point has had a relatively light season and looked as good as ever when winning on Kempton’s all-weather surface recently. This has clearly been the five-year-old’s main end of season target and a big run is expected.
Recommendation: Kind Of Blue (Each-Way) - 11/1 with Paddy Power (4 places)
2:40pm Ascot - Kalpana (Nap)
The British trainer’s championship may well be decided by the outcome of this £500k Group 1 Champions Fillies And Mares Stakes. A victory for the Andrew Balding-trained KALPANA (Nap) could put the Kingsclere handler in the driving seat, especially if Ballydoyle rival Aidan O’Brien fails to land one of today’s feature races. The Irish trainer would then have to rely on winning next week’s William Hill Futurity, a race O’Brien has won a record 12 times.
Held up in midfield when 5th, beaten less than 4 lengths in the Arc of two weeks ago, I felt that the mare would have finished much closer to winner Daryz if ridden more forcefully. Providing that race has not left its mark, Colin Keane’s mount can end the season on a winning note if able to repeat her King George victory, achieved under similar conditions to those of today.
Recommendation: Kalpana (Nap) - 6/4 with William Hill
This is Alan's Nap of the Day selection - see how it stacks up against Charlie McCann's pick.
3:20pm Ascot - Gstaad
Aidan O’Brien’s best chance of winning one of this afternoon’s feature races may rest with GSTAAD in this £1.1 million Queen Elizabeth Stakes. Runner-up to Bow Echo in the Betfred 2000 Guineas, Royal Ascot’s St James’s Palace Stakes and Sussex Stakes at Goodwood, Ryan Moore’s mount will be pleased to see the back of George Boughey’s recently retired miler.
The son of Starspangledbanner failed to produce his best form when third in Longchamp’s Prix du Moulin last time, but may have just needed that run, and if able to reproduce his Irish 2000 Guineas victory, is fancied to just get the better of main rivals Rayif and Talk Of New York.
Recommendation: Gstaad - 7/2 with bet365
4:00pm Ascot - Calandagan
A small but select field for this £1.3 million Champion Stakes, the field of 6 headed by last year’s 1-2-3, CALANDAGAN, Ombudsman and Almaqam. Francis-Henri Graffard’s charge finished well on top 12 months ago and is fancied to win back-to-back renewals of this fascinating Group 1 contest.
The Gleneagles gelding bounced back from his disappointing run when failing to handle the soft conditions in Epsom’s Coronation Cup to win the Group 1 Grand Prix de Saint-Cloud before failing to peg back Kalpana in his bid for a second King George V1 & Queen Elizabeth Stakes during the summer.
Calandagan will be a fresh horse in a bid to win this valuable contest once again, and with conditions to suit, is expected to prove too good for Ombudsman and company once again.
Recommendation: Calandagan - 2/1 with BetVictor
4:35pm Ascot - Gavriel
With the ground the way it is, it's a shame this £200k Balmoral Handicap has a maximum field of only 20, unlike the 28 runners which competed for this year’s Royal Hunt Cup. Connections of favourite GAVRIEL won’t complain as the last horse to make the cut, unlike those of the 3 reserves - Tribal Chief, Wise Prince and Arctic Thunder.
In finishing 4th of the 27 runners, Gavriel did best of those horses drawn high when sent off the 4/1 market leader for last month’s Cambridgeshire and can be marked up for that excellent effort. The well-related son of Frankel and Group 1 winner Thistle Bird is bred to be better than a handicapper, and in receipt of weight from his 19 rivals, can take this valuable handicap before stepping-up in class next season. William Haggas’s Doncaster winner of last month, Scoville, looks the main danger.
Recommendation: Gavriel - 5/1 with Coral
* Betting odds correct at the time of publication. All odds are subject to changes.
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About Alan Kelly
A passionate follower of horse racing for over 50 years, Alan has enjoyed a 40-year career in the betting industry, 28 of which he spent running his betting shop as an owner/manager.
A successful punter with a keen eye for value, Alan has had many betting highlights, including a Scoop 6 win and has shown a consistent profit in the battle with bookmakers since joining Free Bets in 2008.
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