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Alan Kelly's Tips - Wednesday, 1 July
A busy day for the sport with five fixtures in Britain and two in Ireland. Our five selections come from the meetings at Nottingham, Yarmouth and Perth in the afternoon along with those at Newbury and Kempton Park in the evening.
2:00pm Nottingham - Ziggy Starshine
Into July now and the nursery season is among us, with a couple of juvenile handicaps making up part of Nottingham’s seven-race card. Handicapping two-year-olds is a thankless task for those concerned and I think they may have underestimated the ability of the Newland/Insole-trained ZIGGY STARSHINE, the daughter of Starman given an opening mark of 74.
A winner (sent off 15/8 favourite) on her racecourse debut at Bath in April, the mount of Jack Doughty was unlucky to come up against a couple of decent juveniles in Lover Girl and Wateera on her other two starts. The former wasn’t disgraced when finishing third in a York Listed race next time, while Karl Burke’s runner went on to be beaten a couple of noses in a hot Newbury novice contest just over a week ago.
In what looks to be a tight handicap, I don’t think the form of her rivals matches that of Ziggy Starshine.
Recommendation: Ziggy Starshine - 7/2 with bet365
2:39pm Yarmouth - The Ubermensch
Michael Bell’s nine-race maiden THE UBERMENSCH caught the eye when finishing an unlucky second in an amateur jockeys’ handicap at Newcastle last Friday evening, Jack Lander’s mount finishing better than anything after failing to get a clear run, the four-year-old failing by a fast diminishing length and a quarter to catch the winner Luan, who had been given a peach of a ride by top amateur Mr Henry Callan (has won on 4 of his last 5 rides).
In a field of just 4, there should be no excuses on this occasion and Joe Bradnam’s mount looks just the type to be suited by this “Hands & Heels” Apprentice Handicap (Part of the Racing Excellence Series). Joint top weight Pleasant Man looks the obvious danger.
Recommendation: The Ubermensch - 11/8 with bet365
4:25pm Perth - The Flying Poet
This three mile handicap chase looks to concern a couple of improving chasers in the Olly Murphy-trained THE FLYING POET and Get A Superstar from the Dr Richard Newland & Jamie Insole stable, the latter now on a hat-trick following a couple of recent wins at Market Rasen.
Of the two, I think the one with the most potential is Sean Bowen’s mount, who has won on his last two visits to Perth, the first over hurdles last September before beating fellow rival Defying Gravity on his chasing debut in May. Runner-up on his most recent start when conceding plenty of weight to Neil Mulholland’s Gata Ban at Worcester (won again 4 days later), The Flying Poet looks a good chasing prospect (can make the odd mistake) with more experience over the bigger obstacles.
Recommendation: The Flying Poet - 5/2 with bet365
7:43pm Kempton - Tripoli Flyer
With a hurdles rating of 141, based on a couple of decent efforts in the spring when finishing 8th of 23 in the County Hurdle at the Cheltenham Festival before the seven-year-old’s creditable third in a Listed race at the Punchestown Festival, Fergal O’Brien’s TRIPOLI FLYER makes his Flat handicap debut in this mile and a half all-weather contest off an opening mark of just 72.
This will be the son of Getaway's third start on an artificial surface, the first in that famous Southwell race behind Constitution Hill. Third on this course five weeks ago when no match for one-time Derby contender Water To Wine, Gina Mangan's mount has shown enough to suggest that Tripoli Flyer is more than capable of winning a race of this nature off such a low rating compared to that over the smaller obstacles.
Jockey Billy Loughnane has been booked for the Hayley Burton-trained Yaa Min, who should appreciate this drop back in trip after failing to get home over two miles on this course last time, while top weight Master Vintner and Bulletin look best of the rest. If the market speaks in his favour, I expect Tripoli Flyer to take plenty of beating in receipt of plenty of weight from his six rivals.
Recommendation: Tripoli Flyer - 9/2 with bet365
8:30pm Newbury - Thanos (Nap)
Three of the five contenders for this one mile three-year-old handicap will be making their handicap debuts, including recent winners Lucky Luna and Drymee from the respective stables of Richard Hannon and James Fanshawe. I’m not convinced that the form of either of those races is particularly strong and much prefer the chances of Harry Charlton’s THANOS (Nap), who is on a hat-trick following handicap successes at Lingfield and Chepstow in May.
While Lewis Edmunds’ mount now races off a mark 16lb higher than when recording the first of those wins, I think there is plenty more improvement still to come from the Lope Y Fernandez gelding, who is rated just 74.
Recommendation: Thanos (Nap) - 11/10 with bet365
* Betting odds correct at the time of publication. All odds are subject to changes.
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About Alan Kelly
A passionate follower of horse racing for over 50 years, Alan has enjoyed a 40-year career in the betting industry, 28 of which he spent running his betting shop as an owner/manager.
A successful punter with a keen eye for value, Alan has had many betting highlights, including a Scoop 6 win and has shown a consistent profit in the battle with bookmakers since joining Free Bets in 2008.
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