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A fabulous Goodwood Festival but far from Glorious from a betting perspective.
On a course where luck plays a significant role, lady fortune was not on our side over the five days, our final 4/1 selection We’re Goosers (backed into 11/8) looked to be coming with a winning run when hampered several times inside the closing stages before finishing a close third.
P/L for the week ending Sunday, 2 August: -£12.52
P/L for the year 2026 to date: +£149.88
P/L for the year 2025: +£22.38
P/L for the year 2024: +£200.42
P/L since 1st September 2022: +£650.54
Alan Kelly's Tips - Thursday, 6 August
Flat racing has the scene to itself in Britain on Thursday, courtesy of the meetings at Brighton and Newmarket in the afternoon and Sandown, Chepstow and Southwell in the evening.
Over in Ireland, Leopardstown’s card features a couple of Group 3 races. The second Irish fixture is a jumps card at Sligo.
4:33pm Newmarket - High Fibre (Nap)
Top weight Minhad could finish only 4th of the 8 runners when sent off favourite for a 1m 6f handicap at Sandown last month on the back of a decent effort when 5th of 17 in a mile and a half handicap at York’s Dante meeting with today’s rider, 7lb claimer Kyle McHugh in the saddle.
Ralph Beckett’s lightly-raced Australia filly Koala Rose gets plenty of weight from her older rivals and should be winning soon, but this 2m handicap looks a good opportunity for James Owen’s HIGH FIBRE (Nap) to follow-up his victory in last month’s Betway Summer Handicap Hurdle at Market Rasen.
A winner over hurdles at Kempton back in March for previous trainer Harry Fry, the seven-year-old gelding made his debut for Owen when staying-on to finishing third in a 1m 4f apprentice handicap at York last month before returning to the smaller obstacles 8 days later. Cieren Fallon’s mount will appreciate today’s extra half a mile trip, and off a mark of only 79 (120 over hurdles), the son of Vadamos looks the one to beat for a stable with a bright future.
Recommendation: High Fibre (Nap) - 3/1 with bet365
6:35pm Leopardstown - Endorsement
An interesting renewal of this Group 3 Ballyroan Stakes, the field of 9 headed by the 118-rated Ethical Diamond, surprise winner of last year’s Breeders’ Cup Turf and last seen finishing 9th behind Marco Botti’s Giavellotto and subsequent King George winner Kalpana in Royal Ascot’s Group 2 Hardwicke Stakes.
On current ratings, Ryan Moore’s mount has 9lb and more in hand over his rivals, headed by Jessica Harrington’s Tattersalls Gold Cup 4th Green Impact. The two horses from the classic generation, Johnny Murtagh’s Queen’s Vase 7th Asakir and ENDORSEMENT receive a handy 10lb from their older rivals, best of the pair probably being the latter.
Narrowly beaten when second and third respectively behind Epsom Derby 1st and 3rd Christmas Day and James T Braddock in Group 3 trials on this course, the Wootton Bassett colt opened his account for the season when beating stablemate Amadeus Mozart by 7 lengths in the Listed King George V Cup over today’s course and distance last month.
A length second when caught inside the closing stages by Andrew Balding’s Generic in Royal Ascot’s Hampton Court Stakes last time, Endorsement is now with son Joseph after leaving the Ballydoyle stable of Aidan O’Brien after being purchased by J P McManus. A 40/1 chance for the Betfred St Leger at Doncaster (also holds an entry in the Irish version), a victory here could put the selection in the picture for either of those classics.
Recommendation: Endorsement - 5/2 with Virgin Bet
7:23pm Sandown - Ascending Star
Saeed bin Suroor’s Desert Shadow faces a difficult task under 10st 2lb in an effort to follow-up his victory in a four-horse race at Lingfield last month. Lunario defied odds of 33/1 to win a 17-runner handicap at Ascot three weeks ago, but whether the grey is capable of repeating that form is open to question (well beaten on 4 previous starts).
While cases can be made for both Tavana and Sunny Smile, I think the outcome of this 7f handicap is likely to concern the other two three-year-olds in the shape of Owen Burrows’ ASCENDING STAR and Thursday Girl from the Ed Walker stable.
In receipt of 6lb, the latter finished just over a length in front of Ascending Star in a 1m handicap at Sandown last month behind Richard Hannon’s Cristo. On 2lb better terms, Callum Rodriguez’ mount is fancied to reverse that form, despite the fact that Thursday Girl went on to open her account at Nottingham 15 days later.
Runner-up in that race, beaten half a length, was the Burrows-trained Moonlit Surf, who didn’t help her chances by pulling hard in the early stages. Prior to that Sandown defeat, Ascending Star had impressed when beating William Haggas’s 1/5 favourite Weffaag at Lingfield, and if similar front-running tactics are employed from his draw in stall 6, I expect the Starman gelding to take plenty of pegging back.
Recommendation: Ascending Star - 10/3 with bet365
* Betting odds correct at the time of publication. All odds are subject to changes.
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About Alan Kelly
A passionate follower of horse racing for over 50 years, Alan has enjoyed a 40-year career in the betting industry, 28 of which he spent running his betting shop as an owner/manager.
A successful punter with a keen eye for value, Alan has had many betting highlights, including a Scoop 6 win and has shown a consistent profit in the battle with bookmakers since joining Free Bets in 2008.
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