Alan Kelly’s Tips
Horse Racing tips for the meetings at Newmarket and Worcester on Wednesday
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An excellent week ending Sunday, October 19th, which resulted in four winning days and featuring winners at 11/8, 11/2, 16/1, 5/1, 7/2, 2/1 and 11/4.
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Alan Kelly's Tips - Wednesday, October 22nd
The flat meeting at Newmarket and Worcester’s jumps card provide some decent action under both codes on Wednesday afternoon.
The ground at headquarters is good, good to firm in places, while at Worcester conditions are expected to be on the soft side of good.
1:00pm Worcester - Wade Out
Despite a field of only 5, a cracking beginners chase to start Worcester’s eight-race card. With a hurdles rating of 143, Jamie Snowden’s Wendigo, a creditable fifth in the Grade 1 Albert Bartlett at the Cheltenham Festival on his most recent start, is clearly the one to beat if able to transfer his hurdles form to that of the bigger obstacles.
Gavin Sheehan’s mount was beaten in two of his three point-to-points however and at an opening show of 4/6 is worth taking on. The most experienced runner on his seventh start over fences is Ben Pauling’s Pic Roc, although the Mount Nelson gelding has yet to open his account despite several decent efforts.
At an opening show of 11/2, I think the value of the race lies with the Olly Murphy/Sean Bowen combination responsible for chasing debutante WADE OUT. The Shantou gelding, winner of his only point-to-point, has always looked the type to make a better chaser than hurdler, despite his record of 3 from 6 over the smaller obstacles.
Last seen finishing 6th in a Premier Handicap at Aintree’s Grand National meeting, Wade Out could take plenty of pegging back if getting into a nice rhythm up front, as the six-year-old is sure to have been well schooled.
Recommendation: Wade Out - 11/2 with Paddy Power
4:08pm Newmarket - Tuesdays Child (Each-Way)
Ralph Beckett’s top weight Maybe Not is hard to fault with a view to the outcome of this 1m fillies handicap. The daughter of Pinatubo has yet to finish out of the frame in 6 starts this season, including when beaten just a length in a 18-runner Heritage Handicap at York’s Ebor meeting.
Rossa Ryan’s mount went one better on Southwell’s all-weather surface last month, beating George Scott’s Forty Years On, a horse who had won her previous three races. A rise of 3lb does not seem too harsh for that narrow victory and another big run looks guaranteed from this ultra-consistent filly.
However, in receipt of a stone from Maybe Not, George Boughey’s (Each-Way) (Nap) may represent better value from a betting perspective. After leaving the William Haggas stable during the summer, Tuesdays Child ran out the comfortable winner of a Chelmsford handicap on her first start for connections, after which the daughter of Zoustar just lost out when fourth in a bunched finish over today’s course and distance (beaten a neck) behind fellow rival Silent City.
On slightly better terms, I expect Tuesdays Child, tongue-tied for the first time, to overturn that form, as Jack Doughty’s mount may well have prevailed in another 50 yards or so. From a stable which continues in good form, the filly makes plenty of appeal off a mark of only 72.
Recommendation: Tuesdays Child (Each-Way) - 8/1 with bet365 (3 places)
4:20pm Worcester - Lucky Bounce (Nap)
Making a quick reappearance following his victory at Ffos Las last Thursday, the ex Eddie O’Grady-trained Order Of The Dance, on his debut for trainer David Pipe, will be fancied to follow-up that all-the-way success under a 7lb penalty, especially with the 5lb claim of rider Callum Pritchard.
While the Order Of St George gelding may well prove the type to run up a sequence for connections, I think the concession of lumps of weight to Ryan Potter’s lightly-raced LUCKY BOUNCE (Nap) may prove beyond the top weight.
Sent off at big prices on his first 7 starts, four over hurdles and three on the flat, the Milan gelding was backed into 2/1 favouritism for a Market Rasen handicap almost three years ago, just losing out in a close finish, after which the eight-year-old wasn’t seen again until reappearing at Ffos Las back in May following a break of 903 days.
Sent off the 5/2 market leader, despite that long absence, Brendan Powell’s mount had little trouble in seeing off the Hobbs/White-trained Miss Popalong after travelling best of all throughout the race. Despite dropping back half a mile in trip, I think Lucky Bounce is a well-handicapped horse racing off a mark of 88 and is fancied to make the most of the weight he receives from the Pond House top weight.
Recommendation: Lucky Bounce (Nap) - 6/1 with SpreadEx
* Betting odds correct at the time of publication. All odds are subject to changes.
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About Alan Kelly
A passionate follower of horse racing for over 50 years, Alan has enjoyed a 40-year career in the betting industry, 28 of which he spent running his betting shop as an owner/manager.
A successful punter with a keen eye for value, Alan has had many betting highlights, including a Scoop 6 win and has shown a consistent profit in the battle with bookmakers since joining Freebets.com in 2008.
You can follow Alan Kelly on Twitter for more racing insight.
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