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Latest Profit & Loss Figures
A small loss of £0.70 for the week ending Sunday, 23 November, although we did have three out of five winning naps (one non-runner), the big disappointment being the dismal run of Il Est Francais at Ascot on Saturday.
- P/L for the week ending Sunday, 23 November: -£0.70
- P/L for the year 2025 to date: +£71.13
- P/L for the year 2024: +£200.42
- P/L since 1st September 2022: +£557.12
Alan Kelly's Tips - Saturday, 29 November
The ITV Racing cameras will cover the main action on Newbury’s Coral Gold Cup card on Saturday afternoon, along with two races from Newcastle, one of which is the Grade 1 BetMGM Fighting Fifth Hurdle at 2:00pm.
A fabulous afternoon of national hunt racing is in store, starting with the 1:40pm at the Berkshire racecourse.
1:40pm Newbury - Dominic’s Fault (Each-Way)
A wide-open handicap hurdle to start ITV’s coverage for the afternoon. Last time out winners French Ship and Lud’or head the betting at around 9/2, but at the 10/1 available with BetVictor (4 places) the vote goes to the Olly Murphy-trained DOMINIC'S FAULT (Each-Way), the mount of champion jockey Sean Bowen.
After winning comfortably over an inadequate two miles at Lingfield 12 months ago, the Camelot gelding was still going well when brought down 3 out at Sandown in January, a race won by fellow rival Loverdose. Dominic’s Fault is set to meet that horse on 13lb better terms today, and with an excellent record following a break, can take advantage of the weight he receives from most of his rivals.
Recommendation: Dominic’s Fault (Each-Way) - 10/1 with BetVictor (4 places)
2:00pm Newcastle - The New Lion (Nap)
All 5 horses stand their ground for a fascinating Fighting Fifth Hurdle, the Grade 1 contest attracting three of the leading contenders for next year’s Champion Hurdle, headed by 2023 champion Constitution Hill. Nicky Henderson’s charge suffered his first defeat when falling in last season’s Champion Hurdle, after which the son of Blue Bresil suffered the same mishap at Aintree before ending the campaign when finishing a disappointing fifth behind the sidelined State Man at Punchestown.
While excuses were made for that defeat in Ireland (had grazes and was sore post race), the 170-rated hurdler lost his air of invincibility. Connections are bullish that Constitution Hill is back to his best but I am yet to be convinced. In which case I much prefer the chances of the new kid on the block, Dan Skelton’s unbeaten THE NEW LION (Nap), now in the ownership of J P McManus.
Following three bloodless wins over hurdles, it was hard not to have been impressed with the six-year-old’s victory in what looked an above average Turners Novices’ Hurdle at the festival. Today’s race at the north-east racecourse could signal the beginning of a new era in the hurdling division, especially with Willie Mullins’ unbeaten Anzadam having the profile of another potential superstar. A race to savour if ever there was one.
Recommendation: The New Lion (Nap) - 7/4 with Coral
2:15pm Newbury - Indemnity
A tremendously competitive Gerry Feilden Hurdle, the field of 9 promising young hurdlers headed by Dan Skelton’s Live Conti, runner-up in the Grade 1 Juvenile Hurdle at Aintree’s Grand National meeting and two places ahead of the other joint top weight Give It To Me Oj, who is now on a six-timer following 3 wins over hurdles and 2 on the flat.
Both horses have to concede between 13lb and 25lb to their rivals however, best of which may be Emma Lavelle’s INDEMNITY, the mount of Gavin Sheehan. After winning handicaps at Huntingdon, Warwick and Market Rasen, the four-year-old’s winning run came to an end at Ascot earlier in the month when the Lope De Vega gelding had to settle for second spot behind Joe Tizzard’s Alexei.
That horse gave the form a massive boost when going on to win Cheltenham's Greatwood Hurdle impressively off a 7lb higher mark. Indemnity still looks well treated with a revised rating of 122 and another big run is expected.
Recommendation: Indemnity - 9/2 with Betfred
2:55pm Newbury - Inch House (Each-Way) & Myretown
The Paul Nicholls-trained Inch House went into my notebook after finishing sixth of 18 in an ultra competitive handicap won by Gordon Elliott’s Three Card Brag at Cheltenham last month, the eight-year-old taking the field along until headed approaching 2 out.
At the time, I thought the Ocovango gelding could prove a lively outsider for today's Coral Gold Cup. From being a lively outsider, Harry Cobden's mount is now a serious contender and I have backed the Ditcheat contender at 16/1.
After looking like he would be racing from out well of the handicap, the defection of Grey Dawning and Protektorat at the 5-day stage means that INCH HOUSE (Each-Way) sneaks into this famous handicap off joint bottom weight of 10st 2lb, although still 2lb higher than the gelding’s handicap mark of 131.
In a recent interview, Nicholls was very bullish regarding Inch House, saying “ Last season was a complete write-off and looking back I don't think he'd ever got over a bad fall on his last outing for Jonjo O’Neill. I was delighted with his return at Cheltenham where he ran a blinder before getting a bit tired up the hill, when Harry looked after him.”
A dual winner on this course two years ago, Inch House is still relatively lightly raced and is fancied to go close for the same owner/trainer/jockey combination successful with Kandoo Kid 12 months ago. Along with Inch House I will also back northern challenger MYRETOWN, who, despite now racing off a mark some 15lb higher, was so impressive in winning the Ultima at the Cheltenham Festival that the Russell/Scudamore-trained eight-year-old may still have more improvement to come on just his sixth start over fences.
Recommendations: Inch House (Each-Way) - 16/1 with Paddy Power (6 places) & Myretown - 5/1 with bet365
3:15pm Newcastle - Konfusion
Not quite in the same class as previous Rehearsal Chases, but a competitive field of 8 all the same, headed by the 152-rated Hang In There. Despite the excellent recent form of the Skelton stable, I don’t think Deafening Silence deserves to be as short as 2/1 to take this £70k Premier Handicap based on the eight-year-old’s disappointing effort at Uttoxeter back in March, the last time Harry Skelton’s mount was seen in public.
Following a quiet spell, the Parkinson/Smith stable are in full flow at the moment and I fancy their KONFUSION to atone for his costly defeat at Haydock last Saturday when unseating his rider after being heavily backed into 9/4 favouritism.
Callum Bewley’s mount had previously impressed when winning a Go North Red Rum Series Qualifier at Wetherby and off joint bottom weight can continue his progression at the main expense of Anthony Honeyball’s Jasmin De Grugy, last seen finishing second at the Punchestown Festival.
Recommendation: Konfusion - 5/1 with Paddy Power
3:35pm Newbury - Doyen Du Bar & Rath Gaul Hill
Emma Lavelle’s General Medrano hacked-up in this race 12 months ago but has been beaten on all 5 subsequent starts and will be racing off a 8lb higher mark. My two against the field are DOYEN DU BAR, on his first start for Nicky Richards since leaving the Pauline Robson stable, and Sam Drinkwater’s Rath Gaul Hill.
Harry Cobden is an interesting jockey booking for the former, whose only defeat in four starts last season came at Sandown when beaten just over three lengths by subsequent Paddy Power Gold Cup runner-up Vincenzo. The northern raider looks overpriced at 15/2.
Winner of both of his starts over today’s course and distance, RATH GAUL HILL was attempting to record a hat-trick of wins when contesting the Red Rum (Premier Handicap) at Aintree’s Grand National meeting, having to settle for a respectable 6th place, four ahead of General Medrano. February’s win here came after a break of 315 days so the Doyen gelding is unlikely to fail for lack of fitness on his first outing for almost 8 months.
Recommendations: Doyen Du Bar - 15/2 with bet365 & Rath Gaul Hill - 13/2 with William Hill
* Betting odds correct at the time of publication. All odds are subject to changes.
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About Alan Kelly
A passionate follower of horse racing for over 50 years, Alan has enjoyed a 40-year career in the betting industry, 28 of which he spent running his betting shop as an owner/manager.
A successful punter with a keen eye for value, Alan has had many betting highlights, including a Scoop 6 win and has shown a consistent profit in the battle with bookmakers since joining Freebets.com in 2008.
You can follow Alan Kelly on Twitter for more racing insight.
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