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Alan Kelly's Tips - Monday, 29 June
We head to the meetings at Pontefract in the afternoon and Windsor in the evening for Monday’s selections, the ground at both courses expected to ride on the firm side of good.
2:30pm Pontefract - Ephron
Amateur jockey Henry Callan is on a bit of a roll at the moment with victories on his last three mounts, the most recent when giving James Ferguson’s Luan an excellent ride in Newcastle’s opener on Friday evening, the race delayed by an hour due to local thunderstorms.
Callan takes the mount on the Michael & David Easterby-trained Shimmering Sands in this mile and a quarter Class 5 amateur jockeys’ handicap and the seven-year-old will be fancied by many to follow-up his course and distance victory of three weeks ago.
Four from 23 on turf, the Teofilo gelding has been raised 4lb to a mark of 67 for that neck defeat of Falcon Nine (the fourth won at Beverley last week) but has won off higher in the past. Ruth Carr’s Star Start goes well for today’s amateur Miss Charli Parker (claims 5lb) and this course and distance winner of last August could go well following a recent wind op.
The vote, however, goes to the only three-year-old in the race, EPHRON from the Gemma Tutty stable. The Calyx gelding will have plenty of help in the saddle from the experienced Amy Collier and is open to more improvement than any of his rivals following just six starts to date, the last three coming in handicaps.
Now running off a mark 8lb higher than when opening his account over one mile at Redcar in April, looking as if he would be suited by a step-up in trip, Ephron beat all bar David O’Meara’s well supported Uncharetedterritory over nine furlongs at Carlisle earlier in the month, the Middleham Park Racing contender once again doing his best work at the finish. In receipt of 11lb from Henry Callan's mount, Ephron is fancied to come out on top.
Recommendation: Ephron
4:00pm Pontefract - Selection (Nap)
Following four second and no winners during the last couple of weeks (as of Saturday afternoon) Doncaster trainer Ivan Furtado could do with a change of fortune. Furtado had to settle for the runner-up spot once again courtesy of the filly SELECTION's nose defeat at the hands of Ed Bethell’s Callisto Dream over today’s course and distance last month, the daughter of Cotai Glory just losing out on the nod.
Raised just 1lb to a mark of 76, David Nolan’s mount, beaten only a length when 5th at Thirsk only 6 days prior to that Pontefract effort, will never have a better opportunity to add to his course victory as a juvenile when beating the 88-rated Violet Love in a novices’ contest here around this time two years ago when in the care of Craig Lidster.
The horse most likely cause the selection problems is David O’Meara’s Kaleido, who will be having his fourth start for the stable since leaving that of John & Thady Gosden, and now 2lb lower than when beaten just over four lengths in a 16-runner York handicap two weeks ago.
Recommendation: Selection (Nap)
8:00pm Windsor - Twisting Physics
On her first start for Charlie Pike, the lightly-raced filly Bella’s Path ran out an easy winner at Nottingham 9 days ago, since when the daughter of Zarak has been raised 9lb by the handicapper. My feeling is that Kieren Fox’s mount may have been flattered by that four and a quarter length victory as one of the two joint favourites, Time Loop, ran no sort of a race.
Andrew Balding’s A Taste Of Glory will find this much easier than finishing tenth, beaten 31 lengths by Christmas Day in the Derby at Epsom. Oisin Murphy’s mount does not look badly treated racing off a mark of 84 (won on handicap debut at Lingfield in March off 80) but this looks a good opportunity for Oliver Cole’s TWISTING PHYSICS to open his account for the season.
Following a promising reappearance at Newbury in April, the Dubawi gelding was probably unsuited by the drop back to a mile when a beaten favourite at Newmarket on his next start. Returning to today’s trip of 1m 2f at Newbury earlier in the month, the mount of 5lb claimer Mason Paetel lost out by the narrowest of margins to an improving filly of Owen Burrows with the third horse home over five lengths away.
Raised 5lb for that excellent effort, Twisting Physics looks more than capable of winning off a mark of 89.
Recommendation: Twisting Physics - 5/2 with William Hill
* Betting odds correct at the time of publication. All odds are subject to changes.
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About Alan Kelly
A passionate follower of horse racing for over 50 years, Alan has enjoyed a 40-year career in the betting industry, 28 of which he spent running his betting shop as an owner/manager.
A successful punter with a keen eye for value, Alan has had many betting highlights, including a Scoop 6 win and has shown a consistent profit in the battle with bookmakers since joining Free Bets in 2008.
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