Falkirk Relegation Odds - Why Backing the Bairns to Stay Up Might Offer Real Value
Falkirk are back in the top flight of Scottish football for the first time since 2010 - and the mood amongst Bairns fans has shifted from hope to belief.
But from a betting perspective, the key question for punters and the top betting sites is — can they stay up?
Early Falkirk relegation odds suggest they're among the favourites to go down, but recent form and momentum may tell a different story.
Falkirk Relegation Betting Odds
Most bookmakers are expected to list Falkirk among the early favourites for relegation in the 2025/26 campaign.
History suggests this is fair - five of the last 12 newly promoted sides have gone back down.
However, Falkirk might be a different case, presenting a potential value angle for punters.
With a current lack of betting odds, we utilised AI to calculate the likelihood of Falkirk being relegated next season and for them to continue their upward trend by grabbing a Top 6 spot in the Scottish Premiership.
| Outcome | Historical Frequency | Implied Probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| Relegation | 5 in 12 seasons | 41.7 % | 7/5 |
| Top 6 Finish | 2 in 12 seasons | 16.7 % | 5/1 |
- Relegation (7/5): Five promoted teams have gone straight back down, reflecting the challenge of the step up to the top-tier of Scottish football.
- Top 6 Finish : Only Ross County in the 2013-14 season, and Inverness CT in 2017-18 have managed a top-half spot in those 12 seasons.
Bookmakers will likely open with Falkirk around 2/1 or shorter for relegation, but that could underestimate their upward trajectory.
Conversely, a bet on Falkirk to avoid relegation - potentially priced around 6/4 or better - may offer genuine value, especially if the club makes one or two summer additions.
Based on the performance of newly promoted sides in the 12-team Scottish Premiership since the split-format began in season 2013-14, AI estimates Falkirk's chances next season as about 16%, which converts to 5/1.
These fractional odds give a rough guide - once bookmakers release official markets (and squads are finalised), you'll get more precise figures.
Momentum, Management & McGlynn
Under John McGlynn's guidance, Falkirk have been worthy champions this season.
His tactical discipline, smart recruitment, and ability to get the best out of experienced players like Scott Arfield, who returned to the club in February, have helped turn Falkirk into a well-balanced, well-drilled side.
If he remains at the Falkirk Stadium, Arfield's top-level experience could prove invaluable in a dressing room likely to be tested next season.
Momentum can't be underestimated in football, and Falkirk arrive in the Premiership full of it.
Their squad cohesion and positive mindset could allow them to catch more established sides cold in the season's early months.
Survival will be Falkirk's primary target — and rightly so. But with a clear identity, leadership, and players who know how to win, they may not just stay up — they might do so with room to spare.
If bookmakers underestimate them early, punters willing to back belief over reputation might find some early-season betting value in backing the Bairns to beat the drop.
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