Charlie McCann's Horse Racing Tips Saturday, 7 November - Aintree & Doncaster
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Charlie McCann's Tips - Saturday, 7 November
There is the prospect of rain at Aintree overnight, but it should amount to just enough to maintain conditions described as a mix of good to soft and good on Friday morning.
1:15pm Aintree - Kadastral (Nap)
I recommended KADASTRAL (Nap) as one of my Horses To Follow for the jumps season at the beginning of the week, and the opening 4/1 didn’t last long antepost. He is a best price of 6/4 on Friday morning, and taking short odds in an 11-runner handicap on chase debut won’t be for everyone, and I would normally agree, but I think he is one of the best handicapped horses in training for the reasons I gave earlier in the week.
Dan Skelton admits he campaigned him poorly over hurdles last term, but he has the size and scope to make a much better chaser than hurdler. The stable have an embarrassment of riches in the 2m Novice Chase division, and keeping Sinnatra, Kabral Du Mathan and Kadastral apart going forward might be an issue.
Yes, I know he is currently only rated 125 and he may be more of a Grand Annual/Red Rum horse for the spring, but I do believe he has the potential to be a Graded winner over fences in the longer term. He is likely to be ridden cold out the back, and it would be no surprise if he traded bigger at some stage, but he is an exciting prospect.
Javert Allen begins the new season on an attractive mark, but the Jane Williams stable have had a slow start with Merlin Allen palpably needing his seasonal reappearance at Newbury on Thursday. He is one not to give up on.
Recommendation: Kadastral (Nap) - 6/4 with William Hill
This is Charlie's Nap of the Day selection - see how it stacks up against Alan Kelly's pick too.
1:45pm Aintree - Mydaddypaddy
The filly Mange Tout won the Grade 1 four-year-old hurdle over course and distance back in April, but it was hardly a vintage renewal. She carries a 3lbs penalty for that success, and I would be surprised if she were able to beat the geldings Alexei and MYDADDYPADDY in the William Hill sponsored Molyneux Hurdle – better known as the Elite Hurdle transferred from Wincanton.
Alexei will be ridden by Harry Cobden for the first time, with Brendan Powell sidelined having broken his arm on Monday. The Joe Tizzard yard have made a fast start to the season, and it may be irrelevant that Alexei was beaten off a mark of 127 in a handicap first time out last term.
The six-year-old would have finished second in the Champion Hurdle had he not made a desperate mistake at the last behind Lossiemouth before finishing third – but never really in the mix – in the Aintree Hurdle here over an additional half a mile.
His rise through the ranks was quite meteoric last year, and it would be no surprise if he were able to give 4lbs and a beating to Mydaddypaddy, but I am a big fan of the latter, who was last seen finishing third in what I believe – although there is zero evidence yet – was a vintage Supreme at Cheltenham in March.
He was well beaten over course and distance in the Grade 1 Formby Hurdle – they missed out four hurdles due to low sun – on Boxing Day, and I heard Dan Skelton suggest at Newbury midweek that the five-year-old may need his reappearance. If he is to be a realistic Champion Hurdle contender, however, he must go close in this field.
Yes, it is possible that he will be using the race as a prep for the Fighting Fifth at Newcastle in three weeks time, but he has gone very well fresh in the past, and if there is a British threat to Lossiemouth in March it is likely to be Mydaddypaddy. Note the Supreme 1-2 Old Park Star and Sober Glory are due to go Novice chasing.
Recommendation: Mydaddypaddy - 11/8 with William Hill
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2:25pm Aintree - Talk To The Man
No Drama This End looked a Rising Star when landing the Grade 1 Challow Hurdle back in December, and what could go wrong did go wrong in the Turners’ Novice Hurdle at the Cheltenham Festival. Slowly away from a standing start, the grey had a nightmare passage and seemed to be interfered with every time Harry Cobden tried to make ground from the back of the field.
I am prepared to put a line through the form although I wasn’t overly impressed with his Perth listed win on his last start, having missed Aintree because it was reported that he had burst a blood vessel. He has an excellent record first time out, and trainer Paul Nicholls would love to get one over on his former assistant Dan Skelton, who saddles TALK TO THE MAN - a former stablemate of Nicholls – so impressive when scoring at Worcester on chase debut last month.
Talk To The Man was considered “not far behind” No Drama This End by Nicholls in March this year, although he was pulled up at Aintree in their 3m Grade 1 Novice Hurdle when he gave the impression that trip stretched his stamina. He beat Klimt Madrik at Worcester on chase debut over today’s intermediate 2m4f trip and a big run from the second here on Friday would be a boost to his prospects.
No Drama This End looked a star in the first half of the season – though more a thorough stayer at Perth – but he lacks valuable chase experience, and I wonder if this trip will be on the sharp side over fences.
This looks the optimum distance for his former stablemate; however, he only raced seventeen days ago and are connections going to the well too soon? Another fascinating race. No Drama This End may be the best long-term prospect, but today’s conditions lead me to his former stablemate.
Recommendation: Talk To The Man - 6/4 with bet365
3:00pm Aintree - Lihyan (Each-Way)
Walden – Brian or of Two-and-a-Half Men ilk? – has won four of his last five and was brave to fend off Blue Carpet in a valuable 3m handicap hurdle at Haydock back in April. He has an excellent record fresh, and a 7lbs rise is fair.
I am going to take a chance, however, on LIHYAN (Each-Way) returning to form having put behind a shocker at Hexham on his penultimate start to run a much better race at Cheltenham last time than his finishing position would suggest.
The eight-year-old is 2lbs lower in the weights than when winning at Newbury back in March on similar ground to what he will encounter today. Benjamin Macey rode at Cheltenham and takes off a valuable 5lbs for Rebecca Menzies, who has had a couple of flat winners recently although her jumpers have perhaps not been firing on all cylinders.
Recommendation: Lihyan (Each-Way) - 161 with bet365 (4 places)
2:45pm Doncaster - Revoir & I’m The One
Conditions were described as soft at Doncaster – Futurity meeting waterlogged last month – on Friday morning, although they have only had 1mm of rain in the last week.
In the listed fillies’ contest over 10f+, Felicitas – second in the Musidora back in May – must prove she can handle slow ground, and my two against the field are REVOIR and I’M THE ONE, and I have supported them both.
Revoir was blinkered for the first time when second – beaten a neck – in a 10f Group 3 in Italy last month, when it is reported that she idled when leading. She had previously finished third in a first-time visor at Newmarket over an additional quarter of a mile on faster ground, and the suggestion is that 10f is her optimum trip. A visor replaces blinkers this afternoon.
Rossa Ryan has a career record on the filly of 1-2-2-2, and she looks sure to go close in a race that her stable won in 2020 and 2021.
I’m The One was considered an Oaks contender in the spring, having landed a Newbury maiden before finishing second in the Cheshire Oaks behind Ballydoyle’s Amelia Earhart. She was entitled to need the run when second at Southwell, returning from a five-month absence last month, although she – like Felicitas - is unproven on the ground.
By Sea The Stars – whose progeny generally prefer a sound surface – it should be noted, however, that she is the first foal of a Group 1 heavy-ground winner in Germany, where she beat the Arc winner Torquator Tasso.
Recommendations: Revoir - 6/1 with bet365 & I’m The One - 6/1 with Ladbrokes
*Betting odds correct at the time of publication. All odds are subject to changes.
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