Alan Kelly’s Horse Racing Tips
Horse racing tips for all seven live races on ITV Racing on Saturday
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Alan Kelly’s Horse Racing Tips
With Royal Ascot only three days away, Saturday’s horse racing action may not be of the highest quality.
However, the seven races due to be covered by ITV Racing comprise four races on York’s Knavesmire, along with two from Sandown Park and one on the Roodee at Chester.
Nap - Star Of Mehmas (2:40pm Sandown)
A winner on three occasions over the minimum trip, Ryan Moore’s mount is fancied to take this Listed Scurry Stakes for trainer Richard Hughes.
1:50pm York - Diligent Resdev (Each-Way)
I wide-open 7f handicap to kick-off Saturday’s ITV horse racing coverage, the vote going to the Michael & David Easterby-trained DILIGENT RESDEV (Each-Way), a stable which likes nothing better than a winner on the Knavesmire.
Joanna Mason’s mount won a three-year-old handicap over today’s course and distance last May before ending the season with a victory in the 24-runner Ayr Bronze Cup over 6f. After a decent reappearance effort when third at Musselburgh in April, the Due Diligence gelding lost nothing in defeat when fifth in Ascot’s Victoria Cup (Heritage Handicap) three weeks later, only weakening in the closing stages after leading 2 out.
Possibly unsuited by the drop back to 6f at Redcar last time when finishing a two length third, Diligent Resdev is much happier in a bigger field with a guaranteed pace and I expect to see the four-year-old coming with a strong run on the outside from his wide draw in stall 15.
Recommendation: Diligent Resdev (Each-Way) - 10/1 with Coral (4 places)
2:05pm Sandown - No Bet
It is easy to make a strong case out for many of the 11 contenders for this ultra-competitive one mile handicap. Theoryofeverything, Urban Lion, Classic, Asteverdi and Tribal Chief all make the short list, but in a race almost impossible to call, I will pass this one over.
2:25pm York - Chillingham (Each-Way)
An open renewal of this Queen Mother’s Cup (For Female Amateur Jockeys) for which the Sir Mark Prescott-trained Born Ruler heads the market at a best price 4/1 with Coral. Last seen finishing fourth in the Zetland Gold Cup at Redcar, the mount of talented amateur Miss Gina Andrews should appreciate today’s extra two furlongs and may well prove the one to beat.
Heading the weights is Ed Bethell’s CHILLINGHAM (Each-Way) and Miss Becky Smith, the Ulysses gelding visored for the first time. While it is over two years since the six-year-olds last victory, Chillingham has hardly had an easy time of things, the horse’s last 12 starts all coming in Class 2 races.
The each-way selection was beaten only eight lengths off a 4lb higher mark in last year’s Sky Bet Ebor on this course, only weakening close home over that two furlongs longer trip. A repeat of that effort, or when runner-up in Newbury’s Autumn Cup on his next start, would make Chillingham hard to beat in this Class 3 contest.
Recommendation: Chillingham (Each-Way) - 8/1 with bet365 (4 places)
2:40pm Sandown - Star Of Mehmas (Nap)
Henry De Bromhead is always to be respected when sending his horses across the Irish Sea and it would be no surprise to see his filly Town And Country go close in the Listed Scurry Stakes run over the minimum trip. However, drawn lowest of all in stalls one and two respectively, the two to concentrate on may prove to be the Clive Cox-trained Hold A Dream and STAR OF MEHMAS (Nap) from the Richard Hughes stable, preference being for the latter.
The two horses met in the 6f Listed Chelmer Fillies’ Stakes at Chelmsford on the first of last month, a race in which Hold A Dream finished three quarters of a length ahead of Star Of Mehmas, the pair second and third behind Joseph O’Brien’s Lady With The Lamp.
Strictly on today’s terms, the form of that race should be confirmed. But I think Ryan Moore’s mount is much happier over this furlong shorter trip (all three wins have come over 5f) and is fancied to go one better than when beaten a head in a similar race at York’s Dante meeting on the Mehmas fillies’ most recent start.
Recommendation: Star Of Mehmas (Nap) - 5/2 with bet365
3:00pm York - El Cordobes
Only 5 runners but a fascinating renewal of this 1m 6f Sky Bet Race To The Ebor Grand Cup Stakes (Listed Race). The three principles, Absurde, Alsakib and Al Qareem are old sparring partners, Andrew Balding’s charge possibly favoured most by today’s conditions.
James Doyle’s mount won the John Smith’s Silver Cup over today’s course and distance last July, beating Al Qareem by a length and a half and now set to meet Karl Burke’s charge on 5lb better terms. On 2lb better terms, Absurde should reverse Ormonde Stakes form with the runner-up Al Qareem, but at the 6/1 currently available with Paddy Power, I expect a big run from the Godolphin contender EL CORDOBES.
William Buick’s mount ran two fine races in defeat in Meydan earlier in the year before winning a mile and a half handicap at Newmarket’s Guineas meeting under a massive weight. Third in Newbury’s Group 3 Aston Park Stakes on his most recent start, the son of Frankel is worth a try over this kind of trip for the first time and is fancied to chalk one down to the boys in blue.
Recommendation: El Cordobes - 6/1 with Paddy Power
3:20pm Chester - Star Anthem (Each-Way)
Third and fifth respectively in a 14-runner 7f handicap for three-year-olds at York’s Dante meeting, there should be little to choose between the Julie Camacho-trained Milford and Jennie Candlish’s Frankies Dream once again, the latter going on to win narrowly on that course 17 days later.
Andrew Balding’s Jouncy takes a drop in class and will have his supporters, as will the Hugo Palmer pair of Triple Double A and Miami Matrix. However, at a double-figure price the vote goes to Clive Cox’s top weight STAR ANTHEM (Each-Way) and jockey Jason Hart.
Beaten just two lengths in the Coventry Stakes at Royal Ascot 12 months ago, the son of Starspangledbanner wasn’t suited by the heavy conditions at Newbury on his final two outings as a juvenile. Star Anthem wasn’t disgraced in competitive handicaps at Ascot and Goodwood last month and should prove competitive off a revised mark of 99.
Recommendation: Star Anthem (Each-Way) - 12/1 with bet365
3:35pm York - Northern Ticker (Each-Way)
With prize money of £125k, this is one of the most valuable three-year-old sprint handicaps of the entire flat season, and also one of the most difficult to solve. The Michael Dods stable is having a desperate run at the moment (42 days since their last winner) and could do with a change of fortune, hopefully, courtesy of today’s top weight NORTHERN TICKER (Each-Way).
Dods has always regarded this son of Mehmas as a top class sprinter in the making, Paul Mulrennan’s mount an impressive winner of races at Newcastle and Carlisle last August prior to finishing a close third in Redcar’s valuable William Hill Two Year Old Trophy on his final start of the season.
Possibly unsuited by the soft ground at Redcar, Northern Ticker may well prove himself to be a Group performer before the end of the season and gets the vote over Charles Hills’ hat-trick seeking Double Rush and the William Haggas-trained pair of Showering and Maelstrom.
Recommendation: Northern Ticker (Each-Way) - 16/1 with BoyleSports (6 places)
* Betting odds correct at the time of publication. All odds are subject to changes.
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About Alan Kelly
A passionate follower of horse racing for over 50 years, Alan has enjoyed a 40-year career in the betting industry, 28 of which he spent running his betting shop as an owner/manager.
A successful punter with a keen eye for value, Alan has had many betting highlights, including a Scoop 6 win and has shown a consistent profit in the battle with bookmakers since joining Freebets.com in 2008.
You can follow Alan Kelly on Twitter for more racing insight.
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