We’ve got daily tips from our resident horse racing expert Alan Kelly.
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Alan Kelly’s Horse Racing Tips for Saturday, 23rd September
The Virgin Bet Ayr Gold Cup is the betting highlight on a busy Saturday of horse racing. ITV4 cameras will be covering nine races in total, five from the Scottish track and four from Newbury. We have tips for all of the races, starting with the 1.15pm at Ayr.
“Tip of the Day” - Pride Of America (1.50pm Ayr) - 3/1 with bet365*
With the good to soft ground unlikely to play to the strengths of favourite Royal Rhyme, Amy Murphy’s John Smith’s Cup winner is fancied to make a bold bid from the front in this 1m 2f Listed contest.
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1.50pm Ayr
Pride Of America could well dominate this Listed race
At 3/1 a £10 bet would return £40
Ayr
September 23, 2023
1:50 pm GMT+1
1.15pm Ayr, 1m - Diamondonthehill (Each Way)
An open race, with the each-way vote going to the Michael Dods-trained DIAMONDONTHEHILL (e.w.) and jockey Connor Beasley.
The Al Kazeem gelding is a model of consistency when conditions are right and if repeating his run at Haydock earlier this month, when beaten only a length in a tight finish, looks sure to be concerned in the outcome.
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1.15pm Ayr
Diamondonthehill gets Alan's each way vote
At 9/1 a £10 win bet would return £100
Ayr
September 23, 2023
1:15 pm GMT+1
1.30pm Newbury, 5f - Designer (Each Way)
There is little doubt that the William Haggas-trained Sense Of Duty is a seriously talented sprinter, as victories in Haydock’s Listed Cecil Frail and Newcastle’s Group 3 Chipchase Stakes would testify. Both of those races came well over a year ago however. So, following such a long absence and racing on heavy ground for the first time, I would not like to take a short price about the daughter of Showcasing.
On ratings, Raasel looks the main danger to Tom Marquand’s mount. But in these testing conditions it could be worth chancing DESIGNER (e.w.) from the John Butler stable. The four-year-old filly has form on soft and heavy going and on her most recent start won a handicap at York’s Ebor meeting despite not looking at home on the good to firm ground.
1.30pm Newbury
Designer is worth a chance in the testing conditions
At 11/1 a £10 win bet would return £120
Newbury
September 23, 2023
1:30 pm GMT+1
1.50pm Ayr, 1m 2f - Pride Of America (Nap)
Karl Burke’s Royal Rhyme was seriously impressive in winning a soft-ground handicap at the Goodwood Festival back in August, looking every inch a Group horse in the making. Whether the Lope De Vega colt will be as effective under today’s good to soft conditions, we will have to wait and see.
The ground won’t be a problem for the Amy Murphy-trained PRIDE OF AMERICA (Nap), who could well dominate this Listed race from the front in the hands of jockey Frederick Larson. The six-year-old was always prominent when winning the competitive John Smith’s Cup at York back in July under similar conditions and if allowed a soft on this occasion, will be difficult to peg back.
1.50pm Ayr
Pride Of America could well dominate this Listed race
At 3/1 a £10 bet would return £40
Ayr
September 23, 2023
1:50 pm GMT+1
2.05pm Newbury, 1m 5 1/2f - Get Shirty (Each Way)
Only seven runners for this extended 1m 5f handicap but an open contest all the same. Bookmakers have put the David O’Meara-trained GET SHIRTY (e.w.) in as the 10/1 outsider of the seven runners. But despite having finished unplaced on his last seven starts, the seven-year-old could well bounce back, racing on this type of ground for the first time since winning three races under soft conditions in 2022.
Kevin Stott’s mount has been set some stiff tasks this season but was not disgraced when beaten only seven lengths in the Ebor before finishing a respectable seventh in Haydock’s Old Borough Cup last time.
2.05pm Newbury
Get Shirty looks a lively outsider at double figure odds
At 12/1 a £10 win bet would return £130
Newbury
September 23, 2023
2:05 pm GMT+1
2.25pm Ayr, 6f - Aplomb (Each Way)
The outcome of this Silver Cup could provide some clues as to any potential draw bias for the main event in just over an hour’s time. Only 10lb cover all 25 runners in what is a seriously tight sprint handicap. In the hope that low numbers are not at a disadvantage, the each-way vote goes to the seven-year-old APLOMB (e.w.) and jockey Stefano Cherchi.
Jane Chapple-Hyam’s charge is on a losing run of 17 now, including when sixth in this race 12 months ago off a mark 8lb higher than will be the case here. The gelding has shown clear signs on his last two starts that another victory can not be far away and at around odds of 14/1 makes some appeal.
2.25pm Ayr
Jane Chapple-Hyam's Aplomb can make the frame
At 14/1 a £10 win bet would return £150
Ayr
September 23, 2023
2:25 pm GMT+1
2.40pm Newbury, 1m 2f - Gaassee (Each Way) (Next Best)
I am convinced there is a valuable handicap to be won with the William Haggas-trained GAASSEE (e.w.) at some point. The frustrating Sea The Stars gelding has disappointed more than once. But this will be the first time Tom Marquand’s mount will have raced on ground this testing since winning by 15 lengths at Chester as a three-year-old before going down narrowly in Haydock’s valuable Old Newton Cup.
Now racing off a mark of 98, there will be no excuses for Gaassee this time who is preferred over the hat-trick seeking Totnes.
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2.40pm Newbury
Gaassee should appreciate the ground conditions
At 8/1 a £10 win bet would return £90
Newbury
September 23, 2023
2:40 pm GMT+1
3.00pm Ayr, 6f - Pretty Crystal (Each Way)
Shadwell’s Raqiya is likely to be all the rage for this Group 3 juvenile contest for fillies following her impressive victory at Haydock recently. This is a big step-up in class for the daughter of Blue Point however and at a much bigger price I prefer to side with the Richard Fahey-trained PRETTY CRYTAL (e.w.).
After looking the most likely winner of Goodwood’s Prestige Fillies’ Stakes with two furlongs to go last time, Oisin Orr’s mount failed to get home on the soft ground and is better judged on her three previous runs, including when finishing a promising fifth in the Albany Stakes at Royal Ascot.
3.00pm Ayr
Richard Fahey's Pretty Crystal can go close
At 17/2 a £10 win bet would return £95
Ayr
September 23, 2023
3:00 pm GMT+1
3.15pm Newbury, 6f - Mister Sketch
Not the best renewal of this Group 2 juvenile contest, named after one of the greatest horses to have raced in the last half of the twentieth century. It is hard to see any of the eight runners as potential Group 1 material, one possible exception being MISTER SKETCH from the Eve Johnson Houghton stable who have a decent bunch of two-year-olds this season.
After a very promising debut when beaten just a neck at Newbury in July, the Territories colt put that experience to good use when bolting home by almost 10 lengths at Salisbury the following month. The form of that race may be nothing to write home about but there is no doubting the potential of Charles Bishop’s mount.
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3.15pm Newbury
Mister Sketch can follow up last month's win at Salisbury
At 3/1 a £10 bet would return £40
Newbury
September 23, 2023
3:15 pm GMT+1
3.35pm Ayr, 6f - Aberama Gold (Each Way) (Longshot)
When looking to find the possible winner of this historic big-field sprint handicap, I always think the best place to start is with similar races run earlier in the season, namely the Wokingham and Stewards’ Cup. Current market leader Orazio was beaten in both of those races, and while Charles Hills’ runner can not be written off, I prefer to look elsewhere for a value each-way alternative.
If it wasn’t for a couple of modest recent efforts, I would have been very keen on the chances of David O’Meara’s ABERAMA GOLD (e.w.) who never looked in any danger of getting beat in the Stewards’ Cup from some way out. Granted, that contest was run on ground barely raceable, but that was not the fault of the six-year-old who has shown a good level of form on ground ranging from heavy to firm.
Aberama Gold has run many of his best races over today’s course and distance and at around odds of 25/1 I expect the each-way selection to perform better than he did at both York and Doncaster on his last two starts.
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3.35pm Ayr
Stewards Cup winner Aberama Gold looks worth a nibble at 25/1
At 25/1 a £10 win bet would return £260
Ayr
September 23, 2023
3:35 pm GMT+1
* Betting odds correct at the time of publication. All odds are subject to changes.
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* Betting odds correct at the time of publication. All odds are subject to changes.
About Alan Kelly
A passionate follower of horse racing for over 50 years, Alan has enjoyed a 40-year career in the betting industry, 28 of which he spent running his own betting shop as an owner/manager.
A successful punter with a keen eye for value, Alan has had many betting highlights down the years, including a Scoop 6 win and has shown a consistent profit in the battle with bookmakers since joining freebets.com in 2008.
You can follow Alan on Twitter for more racing insight.
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