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Alan Kelly’s Horse Racing Tips for Saturday 27th May
A mammoth 10 races will be shown on ITV4 this Saturday afternoon, the last of which is the Tattersalls Irish 2000 Guineas from the Curragh at 3.40pm. Haydock, Goodwood and York are the other meetings covered and we have tips for all, starting with Haydock’s 1.15pm contest.
“Tip of the Day” - Covey (3.00pm Haydock) at 3/1 with Ladbrokes*
John & Thady Gosden’s charge looks a potential Group horse in the making and can take this valuable handicap off a mark of 90 before stepping up in company.
1.15pm Haydock, 1m 4f - Auld Toon Loon
On just his second start on turf and sixth in all, the David O’Meara-trained AULD TOON LOON failed by half a length to land a bit of a gamble when second to our 14/1 selection Arch Moon at Ayr last week.
The mount of Jason Watson finished almost three lengths clear of the other 12 runners in that 1m 2f contest and off a mark only 3lb higher should be more than capable of defying top weight in this Class 5 contest run over an extra two furlongs.
1.30pm Goodwood, 1m 2f - Francesco Clemente (Next Best)
Taking his first step into Listed company, this race is expected to tell us what the season may have in store for John & Thady Gosden’s unbeaten Dubawi colt FRANCESCO CLEMENTE.
An impressive winner of an above-average Wood Ditton last April, the exciting four-year-old, after winning his other two races last year without turning a hair, will need to beat his five rivals convincingly here if the mount of Robert Havlin is to prove, as expected, a Group class performer.
1.50pm Haydock, 2m - Firstman (Each Way)
The Ralph Beckett-trained Carzola is on a four-timer here following wins at Lingfield (twice) and Doncaster. Frankie Dettori’s mount has been installed at odds of about 7/4 and deserves the head the market, along with the Ian Williams-trained Law Of The Sea. But with several bookmakers offering three places on this two mile handicap, Tony Martin’s Irish raider FIRSTMAN (e.w.) gets the each-way vote.
The mount of 5lb claimer Paddy Harnett failed to handle Newmarket’s soft conditions when fancied for a better race at the Guineas meeting and will be much better suited by the forecast good to firm going at the Merseyside track.
2.05pm Goodwood, 7f - Prairie Falcon (Each Way)
In a wide-open 7f three-year-old handicap, the each-way vote goes to Michael Dods’ lightly weighted PRAIRIE FALCON (e.w.), the mount of Hayley Turner. Dods has a good record when sending his horses south and the Belardo colt already has a course and distance victory to his name, courtesy of a narrow victory in a nursery at the Goodwood Festival last July.
A couple of runs last month, both on soft ground, should put the selection spot-on for his second visit to the track and from a decent draw in stall 6, should go well with conditions to suit.
2.25pm Haydock, 1m - Covey (Nap)
The horse with the potential to prove better than a 90-rated handicapper in this £100,000 contest is undoubtedly the John & Thady Gosden-trained COVEY. Two easy victories in minor company by the son of Frankel has given the handicapper a headache in trying to assess the ability of the promising colt.
I imagine connections are eager to take advantage of Covey’s handicap mark before Frankie Dettori’s mount steps up in company as the season progresses. At a double-figure price, Bodorgan could make the frame for jockey Hollie Doyle.
2.40pm York, 5f - Zarzyni (Each Way) (Longshot)
Unplaced on his last five starts, the case for the David & Nicola Barron-trained ZARZYNI (e.w.) in this 5f sprint handicap on the Knavesmire does not look an obvious one. However, the six-year-old Siyouni gelding is beginning to look well handicapped now on a mark of 96, some 8lb lower than when beaten only just over a length in Newmarket’s Group 3 Palace House Stakes last April.
A well-backed 11/2 chance on his reappearance at Musselburgh last month, Jason Hart’s mount could never get in a blow at winner Silky Wilkie after missing the break. The each-way selection was staying on nicely towards the end of that race and is more than capable of going close if getting the run of the race.
3.00pm Haydock, 6f - Bradsell (Each Way)
A cracking renewal of this 6f Group 2 for three-year-olds. Ballydoyle challenger Little Big Bear heads the betting at a best price 7/4, despite last season’s top juvenile finishing stone last in the Qipco 2000 Guineas on his reappearance. The No Nay Never colt was reported to be lame after the Classic and has always looked more of a sprinter than a miler.
With Ryan Moore over at The Curragh for the Irish 2000 Guineas, Frankie Dettori comes in for the ride. And while his mount is greatly respected, preference is for BRADSELL (e.w.) and jockey Hollie Doyle. Last season’s Coventry winner, following a break of 270 days, looked all over the winner behind fellow rival Cold Case at Ascot earlier in the month until lack of condition told in the closing stages. A fitter Bradsell is expected to reverse that form in a fascinating contest.
3.15pm York, 1m 6f - River Of Stars (Each Way)
Despite winning a Group 2 at Doncaster’s St Leger meeting last year, I think it is worth taking on John & Thady Gosden’s short priced favourite Mimikyu in this 1m 6f Group 3 for fillies. The daughter of Dubawi managed to beat only two horses home when 12th in the Fillies & Mares Stakes on Champions Day and faces no easy task in having to concede 5lb to her eight rivals on the Knavesmire.
A well beaten fifth behind Mimikyu on Town Moor was the Ralph Beckett-trained RIVER OF STARS (e.w.), who was well backed to win that race but didn’t seem to handle the rain-softened ground. The mount of Rossa Ryan is better than she showed on that occasion and with the stable in excellent form (12 winners from last 46 runners) is fancied to run the market leader much closer on this occasion.
3.30pm Haydock, 5f - Royal Aclaim (Each Way)
At least half of the 14 runners for this Group 2 sprint can be given a chance, in particular the two three-year-olds - The Platinum Queen and Dramatised. However, since winning a Listed race at York last summer, I have always thought that the James Tate-trained ROYAL ACLAIM (e.w.) could develop into one of the best 5f sprinters in Europe.
Sent off the 5/2 favourite for last season’s Nunthorpe, Neil Callan’s mount, on just her fourth career start, could only manage to finish sixth on her first attempt at Group 1 company. The Aclaim filly has the profile to make up into a better four-year-old, with races such as the King’s Stand and Nunthorpe major targets in the months ahead.
3.40pm Curragh, 1m - Paddington (Each Way)
The Qipco 2000 Guineas form is put on the line in this Irish version, courtesy of the second and third horses home at Newmarket, Hi Royal and Royal Scotsman. Both horses have obvious claims with similar efforts, but following the disappointing runs of Auguste Rodin and Little Big Bear at headquarters, the Ballydoyle stable of Aidan O’Brien can gain some compensation back on home turf, courtesy of the Siyouni colt PADDINGTON (e.w.).
The bear form (sorry, bare) of Paddington may not be as strong as that of several of his rivals. But there was a lot to like about his two victories this season, at Naas and here at The Curragh. This will be the first time the mount of Ryan Moore has raced on decent ground since making his debut at Ascot last September and is taken to supply the powerful operation with their 12th win in the 1m Classic.
* Betting odds correct at the time of publication. All odds are subject to changes.
About Alan Kelly
A passionate follower of horse racing for over 50 years, Alan has enjoyed a 40-year career in the betting industry, 28 of which he spent running his own betting shop as an owner/manager.
A successful punter, with a keen eye for value, Alan has had many betting highlights down the years including a Scoop 6 win and has shown a consistent profit in the battle with bookmakers since joining freebets.com in 2008.
You can follow Alan on Twitter for more racing insight.
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