Alan Kelly’s Horse Racing Tips
Horse racing tips for Saturday's ITV Racing action
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Alan Kelly’s Horse Racing Tips
ITV’s horse racing coverage on Saturday afternoon comprises five races from the home of national hunt racing at Cheltenham along with four from Doncaster.
Hopefully, the impact of Friday’s Storm Eowyn does not cause too much damage, although Friday’s Irish card at Dundalk has already been abandoned.
Nap of the Day - 1:15pm Cheltenham - East India Dock
James Owen’s son of Golden Horn can cement his Triumph Hurdle claims with a victory in this Grade 2 trial before heading to the Cheltenham Festival.
1:15pm Cheltenham - East India Dock (Nap)
Currently second favourite at around 6/1 for the Triumph Hurdle at the Cheltenham Festival, James Owen’s EAST INDIA DOCK (Nap) will need to win this Grade 2 trial in impressive fashion if the Golden Horn gelding is to prove a serious threat to Nicky Henderson’s Lulamba come March. I think that is more than a possibility however, as the mount of Sam Twiston-Davies has won both of his starts over hurdles without being extended.
A promising staying handicapper when trained by James Fanshawe on the flat, East India Dock is the type to relish the Cheltenham hill and can cement his Triumph Hurdle place by retaining his unbeaten record over the smaller obstacles with a victory in this informative trial. Unfortunately, the early 11/10 is no longer available 4/5 the best currently on offer.
Recommendation: East India Dock (Nap) - 4/5 with bet365
1:30pm Doncaster - Petit Tonnerre (Each-Way)
Yet to finish better than second in seven attempts over fences, the J P McManus-owned PETIT TONNERRE (Each-Way) has proved something of a disappointment since going chasing, the gelding a creditable seventh of 24 in the 2023 County Hurdle at the Cheltenham Festival when rated 140.
In receipt of weight from all of his rivals in this extended 2m handicap, this looks a good opportunity for Richie McLernon’s mount to lose his maiden tag over the bigger obstacles at long last. Beaten half a length by subsequent dual scorer Imperial Saint at Aintree on his reappearance a repeat of which should see the Jonjo & A J O’Neill-trained gelding go close.
Recommendation: Petit Tonnerre (Each-Way) - 6/1 with bet365 (Each-Way)
1:50pm Cheltenham - Iroko
Off bottom weight, especially with the 3lb claim of rider Dylan Johnston, the Richard Hobson-trained Some Scope makes some appeal (each-way) of at least making the frame in this Premier Handicap at a double-figure price. Heading the weights are Paul Nicholls’ Ginny's Destiny, who has yet to show the kind of form this season which enabled Harry Cobden’s mount to finish an excellents second in the Turners at last year’s festival, and the Oliver Greenall & Josh Guerriero-trained IROKO.
The latter got no further than the first fence at Ascot on his reappearance, the seven-year-old falling after being hampered by eventual runner-up Fil Dor. Winner of the Martin Pipe at the 2023 Cheltenham Festival, the J P McManus-owned gelding has always looked a serious prospect over fences and is fancied to give the weight away in the hands of jockey Jonjo O’Neill Jr.
Recommendation: Iroko - 4/1 with Betfred
2:05pm Doncaster - Gamesters Guy (Each-Way)
A well beaten second to French raider Jet Blue in a Grade 2 at Cheltenham last month, Joe Tizzard’s Western Knight will be fancied by many to go one better in this River Don Novices’ Hurdle. At a best price 9/4 and having to concede weight to his seven rivals, I would rather back the Oliver Greenall & Josh Guerriero-trained GAMESTERS GUY (Each-Way) at the 9/1 available with bet365.
While this is a big step-up in class for Toby Wynne’s mount, the form of his debut second, beaten a head at Bangor, has worked out well with the winner Navajo Indy going on to win the Gerry Feilden at Newbury. A 16 length winner at Carlisle on his only other start, Gamesters Guy is open to stacks more improvement on just his third start over hurdles.
Recommendation: Gamesters Guy (Each-Way) - 9/1 with bet365 (3 places)
2:25pm Cheltenham - L’Homme Presse
Everything points to a victory for the Venetia Williams-trained King George third L'HOMME PRESSE in this Grade 2 Cotswold Chase. Based on recent form, the only serious threat to Charlie Deutsch’s mount is Irish challenger Gentlemansgame. Mouse Morris’s nine-year-old grey has to give 6lb to the favourite however, a task which may just prove beyond Darragh O’Keeffe’s mount.
Recommendation: L’Homme Presse - Evens with BetVictor
2:40pm Doncaster - Wyenot
Henry Daly’s WYENOT did us a favour when making all of the running to record a comfortable victory in a Listed race over today’s course and distance last month. Backing from an early show of 9/1 into 15/8 favouritism, the mare never gave her supporters an anxious moment as she came home unchallenged up the Town Moor straight.
David Bass’s mount will not find things as easy stepping up into Grade 2 company, but at odds of 4/1 I think Wyenot is decent value to see off main rivals Jetara and Kateira.
Recommendation: Wyenot - 4/1 with bet365
3:00pm Cheltenham - No Bet
Rated at least 29lb superior to his four rivals, this should prove a fairly straightforward task for Constitution Hill, one of the best hurdlers ever to have graced the home of national hunt racing. For those desperate to have a bet on the race, Brentford Hope is expected to follow Nico de Boinville’s mount home, at a respectful distance.
Recommendation: No Bet
3:15pm Doncaster - Snipe (Each-Way)
A tremendous renewal of this Great Yorkshire Chase, a race perhaps lacking in quality but on the other hand seriously competitive with a field of 17 runners. As you would expect, cases can be made for most of the field, in particular the two horses heading the early betting, The Changing Man and Forward Plan, the latter one of my horses to follow for the season. While I am loath to desert Anthony Honeyball’s runner, the each-way vote goes to the Dan Skelton-trained SNIPE (Each-Way) and jockey Harry Skelton.
There is a decent staying handicap to be won with the Soldier Of Fortune gelding, who went down by just over a length to subsequent Welsh Grand National winner Val Dancer at Carlisle on his most recent start. With as many as six places available, the 10/1 currently on offer about the selection makes plenty of appeal.
Recommendation: Snipe (Each-Way) - 10/1 with bet365 (5 places)
3:35pm Cheltenham - Gowel Road (Each-Way)
Seventy five lengths separated winner Crambo from 11/8 favourite Strong Leader in Ascot’s Long Walk Hurdle just before Christmas. It is hard to know what to expect from Olly Murphy’s previous Grade 1 winner following that head-scratching effort, while Crambo’s only previous run at Prestbury Park resulted in a well-beaten ninth place in last year’s Stayers’ Hurdle.
One horse who looks sure to run his race is Nigel Twiston-Davies’ GOWEL ROAD (Each-Way), and at around odds of 5/1 it is hard to see Sam Twiston-Davies’ mount finishing out of the frame. Runner-up on all four starts at Cheltenham this season, the nine-year-old would certainly not be winning out of turn and I can see the selection taking a lot of pegging back if getting a soft lead up front.
Recommendation: Gowel Road (Each-Way) - 9/2 with Betfred (3 places)
* Betting odds correct at the time of publication. All odds are subject to changes.
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About Alan Kelly
A passionate follower of horse racing for over 50 years, Alan has enjoyed a 40-year career in the betting industry, 28 of which he spent running his betting shop as an owner/manager.
A successful punter with a keen eye for value, Alan has had many betting highlights, including a Scoop 6 win and has shown a consistent profit in the battle with bookmakers since joining Freebets.com in 2008.
You can follow Alan Kelly on Twitter for more racing insight.
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