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Despite three winning naps out of five (9/4, 7/2 and 4/1) we ended last week with a loss of £10.15, mainly due to several big-priced each-way selections just missing the frame on Saturday.
- P/L for w/e Saturday 20th July: -£10.15
- P/L for 2024 to date: +£36.84
- P/L since 1st September 2022: +£322.11
Alan Kelly’s Horse Racing Tips for Saturday, July 27th
Ascot’s King George V1 & Queen Elizabeth Qipco Stakes is the feature race on Saturday afternoon - the 1m 4f Group 1 contest is the last of seven races covered by ITV Racing cameras and due to get underway at 3:40pm.
We have tips for all seven races - four from Ascot and three from York.
Nap of the Day - New Image (Each-Way) - 3:00pm Ascot
David O’Meara’s well-bred son of Frankel, my long-range fancy for this valuable handicap, is fancied to go close off a potentially lenient mark of 89 and in the hands of leading 3lb claimer Mark Winn.
1:50pm Ascot - Simmering
Ollie Sangster’s Celestial Orbit ran out an impressive winner of Sandown’s Listed Star Stakes on Thursday and the up-and-coming trainer has another highly-regarded filly in SIMMERING, who heads the betting for this 6f Group 3 contest.
Second behind Ballydoyle’s Fairy Godmother in Royal Ascot’s Albany Stakes last month, Ryan Moore’s mount is clearly one of the best two-year-old maidens around at the moment and the daughter of Too Darn Hot is fancied to open her account at the third time of asking in the first of ITV Racing’s seven-race coverage this afternoon.
The third and fourth horses home in the Albany, Heavens Gate and Mountain Breeze, did the form no harm when finishing third and second, respectively, in Newmarket’s Group 2 Duchess Of Cambridge Stakes next time. Granted just normal progress, Simmering should prove too good for Simon & Ed Crisford’s Mandurah, who is feared most.
Recommendation: Simmering - 13/8 with William Hill
2:05pm York - Strong Johnson (Each-Way)
This “Jump Jockeys’ Nunthorpe” Handicap is a race to treat with the utmost caution from a betting perspective. The 5f sprint has a certain novelty value about it and for those brave enough to have a bet, it would be no great surprise to see STRONG JOHNSON (Each-Way) and jockey Sam Twiston-Davies go close with conditions to suit.
Paul Midgley’s charge is at his best over the minimum trip (7 of his 8 victories coming over 5f) and off his lowest mark since winning at Redcar 11 months ago, this prominent racer could make a bold bid from his high draw in stall 17.
Recommendation: Strong Johnson (Each-Way) - 12/1 with William Hill (5 places)
2:25pm Ascot - Friendly Soul
Godolphin’s unbeaten Devoted Queen is something of an unknown quantity, the runner-up on the most recent of her three victories, Spiritual, giving the form of that York race a boost when winning a similar contest at Sandown earlier this month with one of today’s rivals, Soprano, back in third place.
Charlie Appleby’s daughter of Kingman may well be the answer to the outcome of this Group 3 contest for fillies and mares. But I think another daughter of Kingman, John & Thady Gosden’s FRIENDLY SOUL, deserves another chance to show what she is capable of following her disappointing effort when failing to keep a straight course in York’s Musidora Stakes back in May.
The mount of Kieran Shoemark is better judged on her impressive victory in Newmarket’s Pretty Polly Stakes at the Guineas meeting. The runner-up in that race, Kalpana, has since gone on to finish third in the Ribblesdale, prior to her comfortable win in Hamilton’s Listed Glasgow Stakes on Friday evening.
Recommendation: Friendly Soul - 5/1 with BetVictor
2:40pm York - Dare To Hope (Each-Way)
This valuable 6f sprint handicap revolves around one of the two three-year-olds in the race, Charles Hills’ hat-trick-seeking Trefor, an impressive winner at Newmarket on his most recent start last month. The Invincible Army gelding is improving with each race, the question being, can he defy racing off an 8lb higher mark following that victory at headquarters?
While Callum Shepherd’s mount deserves his place at the head of the market, I would rather side with the Richard Fahey-trained DARE TO HOPE (Each-Way) at odds of around 14/1. Oisin Orr’s mount has run well on all three previous visits to the Knavesmire, in particular when finishing a close fourth in the £250k Premier Yearling Stakes as a juvenile.
The first two horses home on that occasion, Shouldvebeenaring and Washington Heights are now rated as high as 112. Off a mark of 89, Dare To Hope is more than capable of going close following several decent efforts in defeat this season.
Recommendation: Dare To Hope (Each-Way) - 14/1 with William Hill (4 places)
3:00pm Ascot - New Image (Each-Way) (Nap)
A typically open renewal of this £150k seven-furlong handicap, with a field of 18 runners headed by the 105-rated Make Me King, an impressive winner at Newcastle on Northumberland Plate Day. Trainer David O’Meara has an excellent record in this type of race and is represented by Summerghand, New Image and Riot.
Summerghand is an old favourite and ran his best race for some time when third behind fellow rival Aalto in Newmarket’s Bunbury Cup last time. At the age of 10, Tom Marquand’s mount is always going to be vulnerable to an unexposed improver, in this case, quite possibly stablemate NEW IMAGE (Each-Way) (Nap), six years his junior.
The well-bred son of Frankel has won three of his six starts since joining O’Meara from the Ger Lyons stable in Ireland before finishing a close fourth in a valuable York handicap last month (Aalto two places further back in sixth place and meets New Image on 1lb worse terms). I thought the mount of leading 3lb claimer Mark Winn was a little unlucky on the Knavesmire, finishing best of all after failing to get the clearest of runs.
After watching that race, this valuable handicap came straight to mind as potentially the four-year-old’s next major target. New Image has the scope to prove much better than his current mark of 89 and from his high draw in stall 17, makes plenty of appeal.
Recommendation: New Image (Each-Way) (Nap) - 17/2 with William Hill (5 places)
3:15pm York - King’s Gambit
Following a minor setback and on his first start since winning the Group 2 Huxley Stakes at Chester back in May, Sir Michael Stoute’s highly promising Passenger is unlikely to be at his best for this Sky Bet York Stakes, along with having to concede weight to his four rivals.
Connections are desperate to get a run into the son of Ulysses ahead to a possible shot at next month’s Juddmonte International over today’s course and distance. In which case, Richard Kingscote’s mount is worth opposing. The ground is unlikely to suit Karl Burke’s Royal Rhyme, which leaves Eclipse fourth Alflaila and the three-year-old KING’S GAMBIT as the two to concentrate on.
The former may have been flattered by his proximity to Auguste Rodin in both the Irish Champion Stakes and at Sandown, in which case slight preference is for Harry Charlton’s progressive son of Saxon Warrior. Callum Shepherd’s mount looked an unlucky loser of the Group 3 Hampton Court Stakes at Royal Ascot and can take advantage of the weight (9lb to 12lb) he receives from the rest of the field.
Recommendation: King’s Gambit - 10/3 with William Hill
3:40pm Ascot - Auguste Rodin (Next Best)
A fascinating renewal of the midsummer Group 1 contest, part of the British Champions Series and with prize money totalling £1.25 million. The big question is, which AUGUSTE RODIN will turn up, the one who was beaten 22 lengths in last year’s Qipco 2000 Guineas and 127 lengths in this race 12 months ago, or the one who recorded victories in the English and Irish Derby’s, Irish Champion Stakes, Breeders’ Cup Turf and last month’s Prince Of Wales’s Stakes at Royal Ascot?
On his day, the Deep Impact colt is clearly capable of putting today’s talented, but inferior rivals to the sword. Trainer Aiden O’Brien rarely comes up short when preparing a horse for a race of this nature, and with the aid of stablemate’s Hans Anderson (likely pacemaker) and Luxembourg, I expect O’Brien to record his fifth win in the race and jockey Ryan Moore, his third.
The race for second place may prove even more competitive, with the 22/1 (Each-Way) available about William Haggas’s Dubai Honour a value alternative for those who would rather oppose the Ballydoyle favourite.
Recommendation: Auguste Rodin - 6/4 with William Hill
* Betting odds correct at the time of publication. All odds are subject to changes.
About Alan Kelly
A passionate follower of horse racing for over 50 years, Alan has enjoyed a 40-year career in the betting industry, 28 of which he spent running his own betting shop as an owner/manager.
A successful punter with a keen eye for value, Alan has had many betting highlights down the years, including a Scoop 6 win and has shown a consistent profit in the battle with bookmakers since joining Freebets.com in 2008.
You can follow Alan on Twitter for more racing insight.
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