Gab Sutton's EFL Winners & Losers - November 29-30
Walsall and Coventry maintained their lead at the top of their respective divisions, League Two and the Championship, but there is a new League One leader after the most recent round of EFL action.
Free Bets EFL expert Gab Sutton highlights the standout winners and losers from the weekend action.
Winners
Birmingham
Birmingham moved within a point of the Play-Off places with Monday’s 2-1 victory over Watford, thanks to excellent strikes from Paik Seung-Ho and Demarai Gray.
It continued a trend of sumptuous home form for the Blues, who have won their last four at home with 14 goals scored at St Andrews, and only two conceded.
Chris Davies’ side dominated the first half, and were deservedly in front, before showing some of the club’s quintessential qualities in the second half, digging in and defending their penalty area well under pressure, to secure the victory.
Birmingham were a highly possession-based side in League One, but as they’ve stepped up to the Championship they’ve gravitated towards a more aggressive style, with a thirst to play forwards early – and after a mixed start, things are starting to amalgamate.
Aaron Connolly
Midway through his career at 25, Aaron Connolly hasn’t quite lived up to his initial potential, having been an eight-figure valued international talent at Brighton back in 2019.
There can be numerous factors behind that, injuries being one, but any attitude question marks have been firmly assuaged at his last two clubs: Sunderland, where he showed an excellent work ethic but struggled for starts, and Leyton Orient, where he’s forged a fantastic understanding with Dom Ballard.
Although Connolly would like to think of himself as a poacher, and he did fire in a nicely-taken tight-angled opener in the 4-0 victory at Burton, he was also a key provider for Ballard, both at the Pirelli and in general, with the Southampton recruit’s brace taking him to eight goals for the season – top scorer in League One.
Connolly’s selfless creativity has helped the O’s become the most dangerous attacking team in League One on their day – if defensive consistency can follow, in performance and personnel, another Play-Off charge awaits.
Cambridge
Defensive reliability has been key to Cambridge’s Play-Off push in League Two.
Neil Harris’ side have conceded just 16 goals in 18 games, the fourth-tier’s fewest, and the numbers back it up: their defensive xG is also the best at 17.31.
Continuity has been key for the U’s: goalkeeper Jake Eastwood and defender Kelland Watts have started all 18 in the league, while fellow defenders Michael Morrison and Ben Purrington have started 14 apiece; in fact, they have 11 players who have started a double-figured number of matches – albeit with a bit more rotation up top.
It’s felt as though the CB5 outfit have teetered outside the Play-Offs all season, but a four-match unbeaten run, with just one goal conceded, culminating in back-to-back wins over Barnet and Crewe, has nudged them in for the first time since early October.
Losers
Watford
Watford are stocked with high-potential talent, and international prospects, so the challenge for Javi Gracia – with the 2019 FA Cup Finalist back for a second stint at Vicarage Road – is to mould them into a cohesive unit.
The individual pieces are there: for example, Moroccan, Imran Louza, who opposition boss Chris Davies dubbed ‘one of the better midfielders in the Championship’, his compatriot Othmane Maamma, an exciting, unpredictable winger, who shone in B9.
Nonetheless, the Hornets don’t quite have the reliable spine they need to translate that potential into a team of serious substance, which is why they find themselves 15th with six wins, draws and losses apiece, following a 2-1 defeat at Birmingham last time out.
That was just their first defeat in six, though, so they’re trending upwards.
Lorent Tolaj
Languishing in 23rd following a 3-0 home defeat to would-be relegation rivals Northampton, what Plymouth Argyle didn’t need was the absence of their top goalscorer, and best player.
The £1M late summer recruit from Port Vale was dismissed for an off-the-ball clash with an opposing player, and then kicked the ball into the stand in frustration, which will see him miss the next three games.
The hierarchy at Home Park are already facing all the big questions, and rightly so, and they didn’t need their star striker to miss crucial meetings with Bradford, Wycombe and Rotherham.
Chesterfield
Chesterfield are only a point outside the Play-Offs because they haven’t lost more than one game in a row all season, with no team losing fewer in League Two than their four – most recently the 2-1 home loss to promotion rivals Swindon.
The reason they’re not in the top seven, though, is because they’ve also not won more than one game in a row since August, when they began with three straight successes.
Paul Cook’s experienced side aren’t likely to veer too far off course, but they’re missing a bit of dynamism and exuberance in certain areas, albeit helped by the energetic Ryan Stirk’s impending return from injury.
With the right two or three additions in January, the Spireites could make a clear push for the top three, with the race looking wide open, but get the winter window wrong and they could miss out.
Gab Sutton delivers weekly football tips for Free Bets, highlighting a carefully selected longshot acca while also breaking down the key talking points and major moments from the weekend's action at the start of each new week.
